Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291738 AAC
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1238 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Clouds between 4-6 kft will continue to increase this afternoon as
a shortwave swings through. This wave will bring scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms into early evening. Breezy winds will
ease late afternoon into the evening hours.

Clouds will decrease overnight, with a very similar setup expected
on Tuesday. Breezy winds, increasing VFR clouds, and an afternoon
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur once
again tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 952 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

UPDATE...

The forecast is on track for the remainder of the day. Sunshine
this morning will give way to increasing clouds from the northwest
as a wave approaches. Still looks like a round of showers can be
expected this afternoon into early evening, with a rumble or two
of thunder possible. Temps will be warmest in the southeast where
the sun will hang on the longest.

MARINE...

West winds will gust to 25 knots today and a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect into early evening. Could see gusts to near 25
knots on Tuesday as well. May need another advisory. Gusts to
around 20 knots are likely Wednesday, staying just under advisory
levels.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 626 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Scattered light rain showers from middle level clouds may affect
TAF sites over the next few hours, before dissipating. Otherwise,
expect an increase in clouds by late morning into the afternoon,
with any ceilings around 6000 feet this afternoon.

Another chance for showers are forecast for this afternoon into
early this evening. A slight chance for thunderstorms exists, but
left mention out of TAFs due to low confidence in thunder
occurring. Gusty west winds are expected by later this morning
into this afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots at times.

Clouds should gradually move out of the area tonight, with light
west southwest winds. Gusty west southwest winds are anticipated
for Tuesday, with gusts to 25 knots at times.

Wood

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 324 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017)

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with showing a 500 mb low
sliding southeast across portions of Lake Superior and Ontario
Canada today. This feature then shifts to the east tonight.
Cyclonic flow across the region is expected at 500 mb, which will
bring an initial vorticity maximum through the area early this
morning. There may be a few showers with this feature in southern
portions of the area.

Another vorticity maximum should then slide southeast toward the
area later this afternoon, moving through in the evening. Area
forecast soundings, adjusted for the expected temperatures and dew
points, support chances for showers and slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon. Mesoscale models may be overdone
with areal coverage, as they tend to be in these situations.

Area of clouds should slide southeast into the area later this
afternoon into this evening, before retreating to the north
tonight. Gusty west winds are expected today as well. Highs today
should reach the upper 60s, with lower 70s across far southeast
Wisconsin. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium

The mid level and surface lows will lift north across of Ontario.
Several waves of vorticity will move through the region and weak
frontogenesis and some instability results in shower and thunder
chances. It will be a tad cooler. 850 winds will be 25-30 knots and
steep low level lapse rates will promote mixing and breezy west
winds.

Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is high.

Surface high pressure will slide south of the state bringing mainly
dry weather and sunny skies on Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound
slightly as the upper low loses its grip. Behind the high, southwest
flow will bring a push of warmer and more moist air. Precip and
thunder chances return Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A frontal boundary looks to be over the region on Friday bringing
precip and thunder chances. As high pressure moves north of the
state a cold front will push south across the region. Precip chances
linger through Friday evening with convergence along the front. High
pressure will continue slides south across the Great Lakes on
Saturday. Another surge of cooler air looks possible with the cool,
northeast flow.

Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence is low.

Models have been flip flopping for this period showing either high
pressure of or a surface low and precip. As a result, a lot of
uncertainty with temperatures too. Easterly flow will keep
temperatures cooler near the lake.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Sct mid level clouds will move across srn WI early Mon AM while
sct-bkn040-050 is expected from late Mon AM into Mon eve. Small
chances of showers and a slight chance of a tstorm from late Mon
AM and through the afternoon. Gusty wly winds expected for Mon.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 15Z today to 00Z Tuesday
across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. A tight pressure
gradient will develop during this period, along with robust low
level mixing. This will result in gusty westerly winds. Frequent
gusts to 25 knots are expected. Any high waves will be over the
open waters, given the offshore flow.

Gusty west southwest winds are possible on Tuesday, as the
pressure gradient remains tight, and low level mixing continues.
The gusts may not be as high as today, so there is some
uncertainty. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Tuesday. Any
high waves will remain over the open waters once again.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Marquardt


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