Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250336 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
936 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The cold front is just about through southeast WI. There are some
very light rain showers and sprinkles behind it associated with a
mid level shortwave. Northwest winds will be gusty tonight and
through Saturday. Stratus will likely linger through Saturday
morning, especially in the east with cold air advection and
another shortwave moving through Saturday morning.


Cold front is moving through the nearshore waters. Behind it winds
will become northwest and gusty. Gusts should reach small craft
levels later tonight through Saturday.


Very light showers will continue to move through the region this
evening. Behind them, 2000-2500ft stratus is making its way into
south-central WI. It may reach eastern WI closer to midnight, but
not sure it will hold together. Gusty northwest winds are
expected tonight through Saturday. Another batch of MVFR ceilings
is expected to slide southward into southeast WI Saturday morning,
then VFR conditions are likely Saturday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 540 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017)

No changes to the forecast.

Winds will die down for a time this evening, then become gusty
again overnight into Saturday. A band of mid level clouds will
move through overnight. A few rain showers are possible. Could see
some brief MVFR ceilings, but confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFS at this time. Later Saturday morning 2-3kft
ceilings are likely for a time, especially in the east, then
clearing is expected during the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 202 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017)


Tonight and Saturday - Confidence...Medium to High
Cold front combined with mid level energy may set off a few
showers across southern WI later this evening. Otherwise cold
advection kicks in later tonight and this will persist into
Saturday with low level thermal trough in place. So potential for
more cloud cover along with significantly cooler temps.

Sunday and Monday - Confidence...Medium to High
Another warmup is expected ahead of another cold front. The 925
temps for Monday suggest that the Superblend is too low. so per
collab with surrounding offices have nudges these temps to show
more 50s.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Cold front swings through in the morning. The GFS and GEM develop
a band of showers though mostly to our southeast. The ECMWF is
dry. Low level thermal trough hangs around through Tuesday night.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level shortwave passes to our south though some influence of
this may work its way up here. The lower levels show some moisture
transport northward due a weak low that takes shape. The GEM is
most pronounced with this as light QPF spreads statewide. This is
a case where Superblend pops may be underdone. For now will leave
as is and see how future runs handle this.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Low
System shifts off to the east so cold advection kicks in for
Thursday esp on GFS/ECMWF. Blended guid for Thursday are
currently weighted towards the slower and more moist GEM while the
ECMWF and GFS suggest some higher POPS may be needed for Wednesday
with a trend downward for Thursday. Still time for models to come
to better consensus so for now let the blended numbers ride for

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR for much of the period. Looking at SKC
for the rest of the day. Expecting an increase in clouds with a
few showers possible with cold and front and mid level energy
later this evening. Cold advection later tonight into Saturday.
Some morning MVFR cig potential for Saturday with LLVL RH progs
trending towards favoring the NE CWA as the day wears on.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory looks good. With cold waters the
mixing not as efficient as over land so think we should be OK
without a Gale headline.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for LMZ643>646.



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