Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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174
FXUS63 KMKX 141049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
449 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NE WILL LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND DEAMPLIFY SOME
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE SRN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 2-3 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI WITH AN INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
HOWEVER...THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 16-17C WILL BRING LES TO ERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCOUNTED FOR A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LES OVER FAR ERN SHEBOYGAN
CO. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TNT WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES THERE. VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DENDRITE
ZONE. WARM ADVECTION ON SLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY FOR TNT.


.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM SW
TO NE. KMSN SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AROUND 16-17Z WITH THE
SE WI TAF SITES AROUND 19-20Z. CIGS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME TO
1.0-3.0 KFT WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM. VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TNT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT
FOR BRISK SSELY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE IN ICE FREE
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE...THE ICE
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE SLY FETCH IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE WAVES TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ062-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ063-069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



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