Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 042029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT WITH LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY START
OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE WINDS STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS WITH TRENDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS AND QUIET WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ECMWF
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHERS ARE
MAINLY DRY.

THERE IS SOME VARIATION WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH...TAKING THEM
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
WITH THIS TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TAKE A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT IN
THESE MODELS STILL CROSSES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.

TOOK A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO POPS AND GRADUALLY TRENDED UPWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON GFS BECOMES
FAIRLY STRONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. THIS PERIOD
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOWING A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. LEFT
IN LOW POPS IN SPOTS FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...BUT THINK
SATURDAY WILL END UP DRY GIVEN THE DRIER TREND IN THE MODELS.

ECMWF/GFS THEN DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
THEY BOTH HAVE A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THE GFS SHOWS A BUNCH OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA...WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY LATER MONDAY. THE ECMWF
IS DRIER DURING THIS TIME...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS BLEND OF POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE TIMING OF A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD



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