Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 242043
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

TWO DISTINCT HEIGHT FALL CENTERS AT 500 MB SHOWN TONIGHT.  ONE WITH
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 12 HOUR FALLS OF 140
METERS. THE OTHER GOES UP OHIO RIVER VALLEY NEAR LOUISVILLE WITH
110 METER FALLS.

DESPITE A SPLIT IN THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS...STRONG UPWARD MOTION
SHOWN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN RAP/NAM/GFS...MAXIMIZING IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA AROUND 03Z AND IN THE FAR EAST AROUND
06Z. ALREADY PLENTY OF RAIN OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW
AND THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA ON NORTH EDGE
OF SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CLIP THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

STRONG DRYING THAT KICKS IN LATE TONIGHT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE TOTALLY SUNNY AND HEIGHTS DO
RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE AND THE ACCOMPANIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NT WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THEN PREVAIL ON SAT WITH COOL ENELY WINDS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND OCCLUSION WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO ON SAT
INTO SAT NT AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES FROM THE DESERT SW TO
ERN CO. THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS BY 00Z MON. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT STARTING LATE SAT NT AND INTO SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. ELY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND EVOLUTION BUT OVERALL PERIODS OF RAIN AND
COOL TEMPS LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THIS EVENING KMSN AND UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES.

ABRUPT CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS TURNING LIGHT MAY RESULT IN
FOG FORMATION BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING TO SUBSIDE.  THE WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA.  EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO 06Z SOUTHERN THREE ZONES AND TO 12Z IN SHEBOYGAN
ZONE.  THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING IT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SEPARATE.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES IS LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TURNING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



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