Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 062114
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING VERY FAR...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF SEASONABLE NORMALS.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TOMORROW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF KEEPS 925 MB TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE GFS AND NAM COLD ADVECT. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
NOT VERY DEEP WITH THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER...SO KEPT SKY COVER
AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...TRENDED TEMPS
TOWARD MILDER ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...AS GFS/NAM UNDERCUTTING
TEMPS TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THE COLDER NAM/GFS SOLUTION IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE MODEL SNOW PACK HAVING TOO MUCH OF A COOLING
EFFECT ON SFC TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE COLD ADVECTION SAT EVE WILL WEAKEN TOWARD SUN AM WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM IA TOWARD THE SE USA. A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS TO EITHER NRN OR CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS AND SNOW BAND MAINLY FROM NRN
IA INTO NRN IL...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TRACK IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH. THE TREND IS SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL SO MAINTAINED LOWER
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SRN CWA WITH A DRY FCST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND PROBABLY GOING
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR MORE SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE...AND ALONG WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUN NT BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH FOR MON. SWLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND FULL SUNSHINE
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SPLIT JET STREAM WILL PREVAIL WITH THE NRN BRANCH MAINLY IN SRN
CANADA AND THE SRN BRANCH IN THE SRN USA. THIS WILL BRING MILD
TEMPS TO THE AREA WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES RANGING FROM
546-552 DM. THE DETAILS OF THE SFC TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A TRAILING
CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OR MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BUT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR
THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SRN WI ON WED OR WED NT
AND LIFT BACK NORTH THU NT AND FRI. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD OVER AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO MOVE FARTHER EAST FOR SOME OF THE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVES BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. SATURATED LAYER IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE ON MODELS SOUNDINGS...SO WILL STICK TO MAINLY SCT LOWER
CLOUDS FOR NOW.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD GET TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM 0-2KFT BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE COMING UP BY THEN THOUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

NEW FORECAST YIELDS WIND GUSTS RIGHT NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO THE EVENING...SO 03Z EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL LOOKS TOO BORDERLINE TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF BROKEN ICE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. MILDER
TEMPS AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL LIKELY
GET RID OF A LOT OF THIS ICE THOUGH.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING


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