Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 071136 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC


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