Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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UPPER MIDWEST SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 AM CST WED MAR 1 2017

EDITED BY NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN, WI
330 PM THU MAR 2 2017

FOR A LINK TO THE NCRFC 2017 SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK, WHICH
CONTAINS SEVERAL REFERENCE GRAPHICS THAT RELATE TO THE SNOWMELT
SEASON ANTECEDENT AND CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGIC CONDITIONS, REFER
TO THE NCRFC WEB PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

THIS OUTLOOK REFERENCES INFORMATION FROM THE FOLLOWING PARTNERS:
- UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)
- REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS (MIDWEST-MRCC AND HIGH PLAINS-HPRCC)
- US DROUGHT MONITOR (NIDIS)
- NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)

THE FOLLOWING 2017 SPRING OUTLOOK ISSUANCE DATES HAVE BEEN SET IN
COORDINATION WITH ALL NWS REGIONS AND NWS HQ:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WITH
PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS ON:
  * THURSDAY, MARCH 2, 2017

FLOOD SAFETY AWARENESS INFORMATION WILL BE DISSEMINATED:
  * MARCH 13-17, 2017

         **********************
          GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE
         **********************

OTHER THAN DECEMBER, WHICH SAW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IT HAS BEEN A
VERY  WARM WINTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE AREA. SEPTEMBER,
OCTOBER, AND JANUARY WERE 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT NOVEMBER
AND FEBRUARY WERE 4 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, AND FEBRUARY ALL SAW NEAR NORMAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION, WHILE NOVEMBER SAW SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE,
EXCEPT FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DECEMBER AND JANUARY WERE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH 1.5 TO 2 TIMES THE AMOUNT OF NORMAL.

DESPITE ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION, THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALLOWED
PERIODIC MELTING, AND KEPT THE GREAT LAKES FROM MAKING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF ICE COVER. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS ACROSS THE
MN ARROWHEAD AND THE UPPER PENINSULA, AS WELL AS THE LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE STILL
ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS. LAST WEEK`S STORM LEFT A SNOW COVER OF
3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST WI. OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE
SNOW REMAINING. THE AREAS WITH LESS SNOW HAVE WATER EQUIVALENT
VALUES OF AN INCH OR LESS, WHILE THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS SHOW LOCALLY
UP TO 4 OR 6 INCHES. RIVER FLOW IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOIST
SOILS AND SHALLOW FROST DEPTH.

       **********************************
        UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE
       **********************************

OTHER THAN DECEMBER, WHICH SAW NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, IT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM WINTER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI DRAINAGE. SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, AND JANUARY ALL SAW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 1 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT NOVEMBER AND
FEBRUARY WERE EVEN WARMER, RANGING FROM 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS SET.

MANY AREAS IN THE DRAINAGE SAW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WINTER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN
IA, NORTHERN MO, AND SOUTHERN IL/IN, WHICH WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALLOWED FOR PERIODIC MELTING PERIODS, SO THE
SNOW COVER MELTED OFF IN MANY PLACES. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER
THAT REMAINS IS THANKS TO THE STORM SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH LATE
LAST WEEK. SNOW RANGING FROM 2 TO 12 INCHES LIES ALONG A LINE FROM
THE SIOUX CITY AND SPENCER IA AREAS, THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL
WI, INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE OR NO SNOW REMAINS.
THE AREAS WITH SNOW HAVE WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AROUND AN INCH.

RIVER FLOW IS ABOVE NORMAL ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN FACT,
FOR SOME AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA, THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL, RIVER FLOW WAS IN THE TOP 5 FOR
HIGHEST FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTH OF THAT WHERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST, RIVER FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

$$
HAHN


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