Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 062356
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
756 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE 80-90F WITH DEW POINTS BETWEEN THE MID 20S AND LOW
40S OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI...RESULTING IN RH VALUES FROM THE
LOW TEENS TO THE MID 20S. DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...ERN UPPER MI
IS COOLER AND MORE MOIST...BUT INTERIOR RH VALUES ARE STILL IN THE
MID 30S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY GUSTING TO 15-20MPH. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...BUT ARE DIMINISHING DUE
TO THE DRY AIRMASS. ISSUED A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT EARLIER
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

1000MB SFC LOW NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT N OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING....DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LESS QPF TONIGHT...HAVE MATCHED THE
TREND BY REDUCING POPS/QPF. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

SAT WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 18C LOWER THAN
TODAY. RH VALUES WILL STILL BE LOW...LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR W AND
AROUND 30 OVER THE E NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MAIN FEATURES DOMINATING UPR MI WX DURING THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED
RANGE PERIOD WL BE A DEEP UPR TROF OVER QUEBEC AND SFC HUDSON BAY HI
PRES ON ITS WRN FLANK. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MAINLY DRY WX FOR THE CWA
AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS PATTERN WL BREAK DOWN BY MID NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW SOME
BADLY NEEDED RA AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWVS/SFC LO PRES TO ARRIVE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

SAT NGT...A SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING LO PRES TROF DIVING SEWD UNDER A NW
FLOW ALF TO THE W OF CLOSED LO CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IS FCST TO
PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. BUT IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT MSTR INFLOW AND DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...EXPECT ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF
OF THE CWA ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK.

SUN THRU MON NGT...HUDSON BAY HI PRES UNDER CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
BTWN DEEP TROF OVER QUEBEC AND AN UPR RDG FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO EXTEND A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING DRY WX TO THE CWA. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH ARND 4C BY 00Z
MON ALONG THE WI BORDER...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO REACH 60 TO 65 ON SUN.
MAX TEMPS WL BE IN THE COOLER 40S NEAR LK SUP OVER THE E WITH LLVL
NNW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS AND H85 TEMPS CLOSER TO 0C. TEMPS
ON SUN NGT WL BE QUITE COOL AND IN THE 30S AT MOST PLACES AS PWAT
FALLS TO ARND 0.25 INCH WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING OVER THE E HALF. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR
THIS MIN TEMPS FCST. LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR W MAY BE A BIT WARMER
UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/SE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. H85 TEMPS FCST UP
TO ARND 6C ON MON WL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS APRCHG 70
AWAY FM LK MODERATION EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A SRN
BRANCH DISTURBANCE LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD THRU THE PLAINS INVADE THE
UPR LKS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS ON MON NGT WL NOT BE AS LO AS ON SUN
NGT WITH MORE HI CLDS AND SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTING TO THE E.

TUE THRU FRI...MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FCSTS SHOW VARIABILITY ON IF/
HOW QUICKLY HUDSON BAY HI PRES WL RETREAT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
SHRTWVS MOVING THRU THE CONUS AND DEEPER MSTR TO IMPACT UPR MI WITH
SOME PCPN. GIVEN THE DEEP TROF IN QUEBEC THAT WOULD SUPPORT A MORE
PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY HI PRES...SUSPECT THE SLOWER AND DRIER
SCENARIO REPRESENTED BEST BY THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. BUT WL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SGNFT MODEL
VARIABILITY AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES. TEMPS SHOULD RUN NOT TOO
FAR FM NORMAL UNLESS MORE CLDS/RA/LLVL ENE WINDS AHEAD OF A WARM FNT
ON A GIVEN DAY HOLD MAX TEMPS WELL BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THUNDER IS DIMINISHING...AND TSRA THAT ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND KIWD SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TAF VALID TIME.
SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST. WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP BLO VFR IS VERY
LIMITED. A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FOLLOW
FROPA...AND WITH THE NEAR SFC LAYER STABLE...EXPECT LLWS TO AFFECT
MAINLY KCMX/KSAW FOR A COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-30 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS



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