Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 150925
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
425 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

The short term will be quiet as zonal flow spreads eastward across
Canada. A couple of shortwaves will be tracking across s central
Canada to northern Ontario. With the track of the waves to the n of
here and with the main push of waa/isentropic ascent passing well to
the n, pcpn is of no concern. In fact, fcst soundings show a deep
dry column dominating today/tonight. So, a sunny day is expected
today and clear skies tonight. There is one exception, and that is
lingering lake effect clouds that are currently affecting parts of
the Keweenaw and especially the eastern fcst area. As winds back sw
this morning, expect these clouds to clear out, allowing for a sunny
aftn in those areas as well. Under sunny skies and waa, temps today
will rebound into the mid 20s to lower 30s, warmest over the nw part
of the fcst area at locations where sw winds downslope and coolest
downwind of the mostly ice covered bay of Green Bay. With some
locations over the interior w half currently aob -10F, this will be
quite a warm up from early morning conditions. This morning will
also be the last time subzero temps are recorded in Upper MI for
probably at least 2 weeks. While mins tonight will be mostly in the
teens, some locations along Lake Superior may not fall blo 20F, and
some locations over the south central where winds will be lightest
may dip into the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Most attention is early in the long term as a couple upper waves
interact and move through the region, packing a SFC low along with
them. Still lots of uncertainty as one piece of energy is over the
Gulf of Alaska and the other over the Baja Peninsula. General idea
is that precip will move in late Mon into Mon night then, for the
most part, exit late Tue into Tue night. Precip looks to start as
snow, then transition to sleet then to rain and some freezing rain
as warmer air moves into the area. Models have been trending
slightly cooler, which would result in more snow and sleet, but
there is plenty of time for that to change. Overall do not expect
any major accumulations of any given precip type, but there could be
travel impacts given potential for sleet and some ice. Blended
forecast initialization worked well, especially given uncertainty
involved, so made no changes.

The rest of the long term looks quiet with minimal precip chances,
highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s to around 30.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1209 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Any remaining lake effect clouds will clear out overnight with the
approach of a high pressure ridge and moderating airmass. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. As the high
moves off to the east, increasing southwest winds above the low
level inversion will bring LLWS to IWD and SAW this evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 425 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Tightening pres gradient between high pres to the s and low pres
tracking ese toward northern Ontario will lead to increasing sw
winds across Lake Superior today into this evening. Aided by max
pres falls passing n of the lake, expect winds to reach gale force
over portions of western and north central Lake Superior this aftn
and evening. Winds will then diminish to under 15kt Mon thru at
least Mon evening as a high pres ridge moves over the area. There
will be some increase in winds late Mon night/Tue morning, mainly
over eastern Lake Superior as low pres tracks ne toward Lower MI.
Winds will then be mostly 20kt or less thru the mid and late week
period as conditions become unseaonably warm over the Upper Lakes
with no significant weather features impacting the area.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Monday for
     LSZ243-244-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Rolfson



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