Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280900
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
500 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Today: A much quieter and more comfortable day is expected across
the Upper Peninsula. The shortwave that brought showers and
thunderstorms to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night will
continue to depart to the east today. Early this morning, there are
still a few rain showers lingering over the eastern U.P. and over
the south central U.P.; however, the trend will be for this to
diminish throughout the day as drier air continues to slowly work in
from the north. Subsidence and the dry air associated with high
pressure building south out of Canada will act to keep the drying
trend in place throughout the day. The only real caveat will be
another 500mb shortwave expected to slide southeastward from central
MN this morning into southern WI this afternoon. The only impact
expected from this may be lingering cloud cover near the WI border,
but that should be about it. High temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal with highs topping out around the low to mid
70s, coolest along Lake Superior with a north to northeasterly wind.

Tonight: A quiet cool night expected across the CWA. The drier air
will become more firmly in place across the Upper Peninsula tonight
as the high pressure center slides into the western CWA. This will
allow winds to become light and variable causing temperatures to
drop well below normal for much of the U.P. and especially the
inland west locations, where winds will be lighter. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly clear, except for some mid to high clouds possible
across the far south central areas as the aforementioned shortwave
slides slowly to the south and east. Where winds become light and
skies clear, temperatures could drop into the low to mid 40s, which
would be most likely over the inland west. Locations along the Great
Lakes will be a bit warmer as Lake Surface Temperatures in the near
shore are running in the mid to upper 60s for many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Weak troffing from se Canada through the Great Lakes region will
spell a more comfortable period of weather for the area over the
next few days. Early next week, heights will be on the rise again as
a ridge builds into the Great Lakes in response to a trof developing
into the Pacific NW. Latest GEFS shows 500mb heights reaching 1.5
standard deviations above the long term early Aug avg over the Upper
Lakes on Tue. So, another round of very warm, humid weather is on
the way early next week. Progression of energy out of the Pacific NW
trof next week will be the main fcst issue and will impact when
cooler weather returns. Right now, it appears the first batch of
energy will lift into central Canada by midweek. While this may
force a cold front into the Upper Lakes, will probably have to wait
until late week for the following batch of energy to push a stronger
cold front into and thru the area, bringing cooler air with temps
falling back to around normal. Looking farther ahead, while the CPC
outlook favors above normal temps for the area in the 8-14 day time
frame, a cooler trend is noted on recent NAEFS outlooks, so a
seasonable stretch of weather may be in the offing late next week
into the first half of the following week. As for pcpn, a dry period
should prevail thru the weekend as sfc high pres dominates the area.
The dry weather should persist into Mon due to the mid/upper ridge
building over the area. Pcpn chances would then return in the Tue-
Thu time frame, tied to the aforementioned 2 batches of energy
ejecting from the mean Pacific NW trof.

Beginning Fri, expect a nice day for late July with max temps around
normal and dwpts still in the the more comfortable low/mid 50s.
Dwpts will be highest near the Great Lakes as the warming water is
resulting in the Lakes becoming a source of increased boundary layer
moisture. Fcst soundings suggest sct to perhaps locally bkn cu
developing in the interior ahead of the lake breeze boundaries. Mins
Fri night will be similar to tonight, but with precipitable water a
little higher, lowest mins should not be as low as tonight. Still,
expect some 40s in the interior central and e.

Gradual warming will occur Sat thru Mon with max temps each day
about 1-3 degrees higher than the previous day. On Mon, max temps
will generally be in the low/mid 80s. Dwpts will gradually be on the
rise each day as well with readings into the low/mid 60s by Mon.
Some models are generating sporadic pcpn near or over parts of the
fcst area during this period. While increased boundary layer
moisture from the Lakes and lake breezes could allow for isold pcpn
development, fcst soundings indicate cu would likely not have
sufficient depth to support shra.

Tue/Wed will be very warm/humid with highs well into the 80s and
dwpts in the 60s. Whether or not a cold front can push into or thru
the area with the first shortwave energy lifting out of the Pacific
NW trof remains to be seen. Expect some potential of shra/tsra
both days.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all 3 TAF sites this fcst period
with a drying NE wind predominating ahead of hi pres bldg thru NW
Ontario toward the Upper Lks.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

High pressure, building into the Upper Great Lakes Region today,
will linger across Lake Superior into the upcoming weekend. This
will keep winds around or less than 15 kts into the weekend. The
next chance of winds approaching 20 knots would be early next week
as a cold front approaches the Upper Great Lakes region.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC



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