Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 291935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
335 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

High impact weather in next 24 hours limited to prolonged small
craft conditions on Bay of Green Bay and adjacent open waters of Lk
Michigan with persistent ene winds up to 25-30 mph at times. May be
slightly breezy along shoreline of Menominee county and sw Delta
county where M-35 is located, but otherwise winds over the land
areas of cwa will be light.

Upper low that brought unsettled weather over the area earlier
this week is over the Lower Great Lakes, at least through tonight.
NE winds between that low and high pressure ridge over northern
Ontario and lingering low-level moisture is leading to sct-bkn
clouds over west and north central Upr Michigan while other areas
are mostly clear. For most part models are overdone with extent of
sub 1000ft moisture but these clouds should stay around in some
fashion through the morning before mixing out/dissipating this
aftn. NE winds off Lk Superior may keep clouds in longer over far
west near IWD. Coolest temps today in low 60s far west but where
skies are sunny should see readings into the upper 60s to around
70. NE winds will keep shoreline of Lk Superior cooler as well.

Upper low begins to head back north tonight but it should stay far
enough away to keep conditions dry. Will see increasing mid clouds
late over the southeast cwa. Lowest PWAT and lightest winds will be
over west. Kept idea of temps lower than lowest guidance for typical
inland west cold spots. Also put mention for patchy fog across the
west interior with some hint that sub 1000ft moisture returns.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

As the closed lo pres responsible for the pcpn early-mid week lifts
fm the OH River Valley back over Lower MI btwn a deepening wrn trof
and a bldg rdg off the e coast, some showers may return as early as
Sat and linger into Sun, especially over se Upr MI. Any weekend
showers wl give way to dry wx early next week as another hi pres rdg
dominates under a bldg upr rdg to the e of the slow moving wrn trof.
The next chc of showers wl arrive mid next week as the wrn trof/cold
fnt aprch. Above normal temps wl dominate the medium/ extended range

Fri ngt thru Sun...As an upr trof deepens over the w and an upr rdg
blds in the wrn Atlantic Ocean, the larger scale sly wind component
btwn these larger scale features is progged to lift the closed lo in
the OH River Valley tday back nwd and over Lower MI this weekend.
The medium range guidance is in good agreement showing incrsg mid
lvl rh but hints the most sgnft deep lyr forcing wl tend to remain
to the ese of the cwa. Since the initially dry llvls associated with
the slowly retreating sfc hi pres rdg wl have to be overcome,
suspect pcpn wl have a hard time overspreading the area, especially
the nw. Plan to go with no more than chc pops, hiest over the se cwa
closer to the closed lo center/edge of the deeper forcing. Although
the clds wl tend to hold max temps not too far fm normal on Sat, min
temps on Fri ngt and Sat ngt should run well above avg. As the upr
lo drifts to the e into se Ontario on Sun, any showers mainly over
the ern cwa in the mrng wl tend to diminish. But lowering sun angle/
lingering cyc nly flow are likely to result in persistent cld cover
despite larger scale qvector dvgc/mid lvl subsidence. Best chc for
some mainly aftn sunshine wl be over the w closer to a slowly aprchg
sfc rdg axis.

Sun ngt into Wed...As the upr rdg to the e of the deep wrn trof
shifts into the wrn Great Lks early next week, a sfc rdg axis
extending swwd fm a hi pres center drifting fm over Hudson Bay into
Quebec wl dominate the Upr Lks. While dry wx wl prevail in this
pattern under mid lvl drying, some of the medium range models hint
some lo clds may persist under strengthening subsidence invrn near
h85 with lgt ne winds off Lk Sup on Mon limiting drying along with
lowering sun angle/diminished daytime mixing. A stronger s wind wl
dvlp under the tightening pres gradient btwn the departing hi pres
rdg and falling mslp in the plains ahead of the slowly aprchg wrn
trof/cold fnt on Tue/Wed. This wshft could lead to some lo clds over
the scentral and ern cwa. While lo clds may hold down the daytime
maxes, fcst h85 temps within a few degrees of 10C should result in
generally above normal temps, especially the overngt lows if there
are more lo clds. Best chc for warmer hi temps wl be on Tue/Wed in
the downslope areas near Lk Sup, where there wl be more sunshine
that would lift the mercury at least near 70.

Wed ngt/Thu...Although the longer range guidance is inconsistent on
the timing of the aprchg cold fnt, shower chcs wl be on the increase
during this period as the bndry closes in on the area. Given the hi
amplitude nature of the upr flow, suspect the slower guidance is on
the right track. Wl retain model consensus pops until the timing
issues are resolved.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Cloud deck should stick around at KIWD for the most part through
tonight as onshore flow continues. Elsewhere, expect clearing over
the next couple of hours to FEW or SCT. Could see fog at KIWD and
KSAW tonight, which may require lower CIGS and VIS.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

A general weak pressure gradient across Lk Superior through the
weekend and early next week should keep east to northeast winds at
20 kts or less.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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