Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 232314
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
614 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...NEW MEXICO...AND NRN
MS. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NE
MN THROUGH CNTRL IA TO LOW PRES OVER ERN OK. A BROAD SRLY FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE NRN LAKES HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER. A WEAKER SHRTWV OVER WI AND
ASSOCIATED 850-700 MB FGEN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT WAS
EXPANDING INTO SRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO UPPER
MI THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF IN PROXIMITY TO THE
STRONGEST FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THE RAIN SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE FOG FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER VSBY. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...THE MS SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV.

MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN
BETWEEN THE EXITING NRN LAKE SHRTWV AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR THE
STRAITS AT 12Z/MON LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NE THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO
SLIDE QUICKLY THROUGH UPPER MI WITH THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
FROM 12Z-21Z FROM W TO EAST. THE PCPN CHANGEOVER WAS DELAYED
SLIGHTLY...PER MODEL TRENDS WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND REGIONAL
GEM 1000-850 LOW LEVEL THICKNESS USED FOR THE RAIN SNOW LINE. WITH
THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING/LIFT TIL AFTERNOON
MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE ENAHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEST HALF FOR NNW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR -8C WEST BY 18Z AND TO AROUND -12C ACROSS WEST AND CNTRL
LOCATIONS BY 00Z. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST WITH ONLY AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING STRONG NRLY WINDS INTO THE AREA
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 00Z TUE...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE E OF THE CWA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
FAR WRN CWA...WITH A RIDGE NW OF THE TROUGH. THE 12Z/23 NAM HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 12Z/23 GFS AND 00Z/23 ECMWF IN SHOWING
LESS PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...AND THEREFORE HAVING MOST
/BUT NOT ALL/ OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW NE OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUE. PRECIP
WILL BE ALL SNOW BY 00Z TUE AS 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AOB -12C BY
12Z. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR IN NNW WIND
SNOWBELTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA BY 18Z TUE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ANTICYCLONIC...AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DRIER...AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN.
WILL CERTAINLY SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATER TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT LES WILL NOT COMPLETELY END AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
FOCUS LES MORE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WNW WIND SNOWBELTS OF
THE NRN HURON MOUNTAINS AND OVER ALGER COUNTY WILL BE FAVORED FOR
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THESE FAVORED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH LESS
AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES INLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM
SHIFT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. AT LEAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE...SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINE
INSTEAD OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ALSO...BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
WED INTO THU...MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL CENTRAL U.S. WED...BUT DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/PHASING OF THE TWO WAVES...WHICH LEADS TO A WIDE
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CWA. THE ECMWF PHASES THE WAVES OVER
THE REGION...WHICH LEADS TO A 1003MB SFC LOW MOVING FROM NEAR MPX AT
12Z WED TO LAKE HURON AT 12Z THU. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA WED INTO THU. THE GFS
KEEP THE WAVES OUT OF PHASE AND THE SRN MOST WAVE MUCH FARTHER
S...LEAVING JUST A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
NRN SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. OTHER MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. NOT REALLY ABLE TO PICK BETWEEN THE
MODELS GIVEN THE NORMAL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
GENERALLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION...SHOULD SEE LES THU INTO THU NIGHT IN NW
WIND SNOWBELTS UNDER -18C TO -20C 850MB TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
THEN BRINGS WINDS OUT OF THE SW THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM IT SHOWS MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CWA FRI NIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG SFC HIGH
MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP LES GOING IN NW-WNW SNOWBELTS THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD OBVIOUSLY NOT GIVEN THE CHANGE IN WINDS WITH THE SFC
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND
0C...BUT DOES BRING LES BACK ON SAT BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS DO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING FROM THE WSW BY SUN
WITH CONTINUED /BUT LIGHTER/ LES. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE
AREA...PERSISTENT LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LOW CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TONIGHT AS TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. A
DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE TO EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES 35-45 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR POURS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 7
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ001-003-005>007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ004-005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ246>250-265-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ242>245-
     263-264.

  GALE WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TO 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





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