000
FXUS63 KMQT 090614
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
114 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS W AND N UPPER MI INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVERHEAD DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONTINUE TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE COVERAGE OF LINGERING
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEARING FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA.

INCREASED WINDS AROUND 5KTS OR GREATER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MORE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED S AND E AFTER 18Z.
850MB WINDS OFF THE 08/12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH 45-55KTS...WITH IS
RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE SMALLER SCALE MODELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
START OUT OVER THE FAR SW AROUND 15Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSITION W TO
E...TO ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE BY 21Z. QUITE A BIT OF
SHEAR...WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE S-SSW AND 850MB WINDS NEARLY OUT
OF THE W. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP...HOWEVER THE
SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STAY N ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING
IN EITHER CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OR MAINLY SNOW OVER THE LAKE
/CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE/. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL BE MARKED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS...MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
FCST FOR THE W HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE 08/18Z NAM INDICATED 850MB
TEMPS OF 3-5C AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST READINGS
W...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM
IWD TO BARAGA AND MQT. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR RETURNS AND
NEAR-SFC TEMPS E OF MARQUETTE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE POCKET OF
WARMER AIR SLIDING IN...AND SFC TEMPS E TOPPING OUT NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK IN CASE SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT
WITH VERY LIGHT AFTERNOON PRECIP FAR E.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

ALTHOUGH FAMILIAR UPR PATTERN FEATURING A RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA/TROF
OVER THE E WL PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDER PERIOD...LONGER TERM MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE FLOW WL DEAMPLIFY SUFFICIENTLY AT TIMES TO ALLOW
SOME PACIFIC AIR/ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO INFLUENCE THE UPR LKS EARLY
THIS COMING WEEK AND AGAIN LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD BETWEEN A COLDER
MID WEEK PERIOD WHEN A HIER AMPLITUDE WRN RDG/ERN TROF ALLOWS AN
INVASION OF CNDN AIR. SINCE THE GENERAL WNW FLOW ALF WL SHUNT ANY
LARGER SCALE...MSTR LADEN STORM SYSTEMS TO THE S...THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER DRY EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE EPISODES OF LGT
PCPN.

SUN NGT...GENERAL NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WEAK SHRTWV RDGING
AND A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR LO PCPN CHCS ON SUN WL FOLLOW IN THE
EVNG BEFORE A RESUMPTION OF SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MID LVL FGEN IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD NW ONTARIO BY 12Z MON. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WL BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PCPN. SINCE THE NEXT CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WL BE ON A
TRACK TO PASS TO THE N OF UPR MI AND THE MID LVL AIRMASS TO THE SW
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LO PRES TRACK WL BE RATHER DRY...THE 00Z
ECWMF QPF...WHICH SHOWS WAD BAND OF LGT PCPN IMPACTING THE AREA FM
THE MN ARROWHEAD/ISLE ROYALE TO THE KEWEENAW BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NE OVER THE N HALF OF LK SUP...SEEMS TO BE MOST LOGICAL. SO WL TREND
THE HIER CHC POPS IN THAT DIRECTION. MODEL FCST SDNGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED WARM LYR WITH H8-85 TEMPS JUST ABV 0C...SO SUSPECT ANY LGT
PCPN WL INCLUDE A MIX OF SN AND RA/FREEZING RA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE
TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN POINTS TOWARD A WARMER
OVERNGT...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN THE EVNG AND
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME
ENHANCED RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E.

MON...CLIPPER SHRTWV/SFC LO WL TRACK TO THE NE OF UPR MI...SO MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCOMPANYING PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE NE
AS WELL. WITH UPR MI IN THE WARM SECTOR UNDER UPR LVL DRYING...WOULD
EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE
OF THE ICE COVERED LKS WITH INCRSG SOLAR ANGLE AIDING THE MIXING OUT
OF MRNG LO CLDS. DOWNSLOPE WNW WIND AND H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS
ABOUT 5C MAY PUSH HIEST MAX TEMPS TOWARD 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.
TRENDED GOING FCST TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER 12Z CNDN AND
00Z/12Z ECWMF GUIDANCE VALUES.

MON NGT...LLVL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LO WL ADVECT COLDER
AIR BACK INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -8C OVER
THE NW CWA TOWARD 12Z TUE. THIS AIRMASS WOULD NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR
ANY LES EVEN IF LK SUP WERE ICE FREE...BUT SOME LO CLDS MAY DVLP IN
THE CYC LLVL FLOW ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA.

TUE...AS THE UPR RDG BUILDS INTO WRN CANADA...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO
SINK TOWARD FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY UNDER MORE NW FLOW ALF.
INCRSG N WIND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DRIVE COLDER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS. H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -14C OVER THE NRN TIER
LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SC TO DVLP OFF THE LK
AND INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE NRN TIER DESPITE ICE COVER/ACYC
LOOK TO THE FCST LLVL FLOW. INCRSG SOLAR ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING MAY
TEND TO DISRUPT THE FAMILIAR LK CLD PATTERN WITH MORE SC FORMING
OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL. THE INCRSG N WIND SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM/ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO THE S AS WELL.

TUE NGT/WED...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHSN TO DVLP ON TUE NGT AND WED MRNG
WITH PERSISTENT N WIND/FALLING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -18 TO -20C BY 12Z
WED AS WELL AS APRCHG SHRTWV/AREA OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIMITING FACTORS TO SN SHOWER
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WL BE ACYC NATURE OF H85 FLOW AS WELL AS ICE ON
LK SUP. TENDED TOWARD THE HIER LIKELY POPS TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL IN AREA OF SHARPER UPSLOPE
FLOW. MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BY WED AFTN IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV
PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK WEAKENING OF
THE SHSN ON WED AFTN EVEN IF THE SC MAY BE RATHER RESILIENT IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.

EXTENDED...EXPECT A MOCLR COLD NGT ON WED NGT AS SFC HI PRES/CORE OF
COLD AIRMASS SLIDES OVHD. SLY FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC RDG/NEXT
CLIPPER SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME GENERLLY LGT SN LATER ON THU THRU FRI
AS THE FLOW ALF TURNS MORE ZONAL. IF THE 12Z GFS...WHICH IS FARTHER
N WITH THE SFC LO TRACK THRU ONTARIO...VERIFIES THE PCPN COULD BE
MIXED WITH SOME RA ON FRI. BUT THIS FARTHER N TRACK WOULD ALSO
RESULT IN LESS PCPN. COLDER AIR WL RETURN ON SAT FOLLOWING THE
CLIPPER SHRTWV AS THE UPR TROF SHARPENS AGAIN OVER ERN NAMERICA AND
HI PRES BLDS INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI WILL SLIDE EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SW WINDS BY SUN MORNING
WITH GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. NOT
EXPECTING LLWS TO BE AN ISSUE AS STRONGEST WSW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KT
BTWN 1.5-2 KFT WILL BE OCCURRING BY LATE SUN MORNING WHEN MIXING AND
GUSTS START OCCURRING AT THE SFC. WAA WILL CAUSE INCREASING MID
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU PD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A LOW
OVER N BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL EXTEND A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING S-SW GUSTS NEARING 25KTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AS IT DIVES ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AND EXITS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING. NW GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE IN FROM THE W TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD SINK ACROSS THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHILE BRINGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF