000
FXUS63 KMQT 091818
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI AND ITS
ASSOC SFC LOW PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED GENERALLY NO MORE THAN AN
INCH OF SYSTEM SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MI LIKELY
RECEIVED 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF
SNOW OFF LAKE MI. MQT RADAR WAS SHOWING A MORE PROMINENT BAND OF
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FROM NEAR COOKS/MANISTIQUE AREA NORTH TO
SHINGLETON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND
MAY BE WEAKENING NOW AS BEST FORCING FOR ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO BE
LIFTING EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
BAND DECIDED TO ONLY KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING FOR ONLY
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY THRU 14Z AND DROPPED ADVISORY FOR MNM-DELTA AND
LUCE WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR THIS FCST PD
IS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE 850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO -20 TO -23C BY THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 8-10KFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV AND THE LIKELYHOOD OF A
DOMINANT LES BAND IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHRTWV...EXPECT WINDS WOULD VEER FROM WSW TO MORE DUE
W...PUSHING THE DOMINANT BAND SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH FROM NEAR EAGLE
RIVER TO CALUMET/MOHAWK AND TO HOUGHTON THIS AFTERNOON AND TO POINTS
SOUTH OF HOUGHTON THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE HEAVIER BAND LINGERS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION...ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES REMAIN VERY LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...BLUSTERY WEST WINDS OF
20-30MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WHERE THE DOMINANT
BAND SETS UP. HOWEVER...SINCE MOST OF THE 00Z AND 06Z LOCAL AND
REGIONAL HIGHER RES MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE DOMINANT BAND
WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS...FELT RELUCTANT TO UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AS AMOUNTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO TRANSIENT
NATURE OF BAND. I AM ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT BEST ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT LES BAND WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND JUST BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER FROM WSW TO W SO THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE  DOMINANT BAND MAY BE STRONGEST OUT OVER THE WATER
BEFORE IT REALLY MOVES ONSHORE TO THE KEWEENAW. DUE TO ABOVE
REASONING...DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING BUT KEPT IN STRONGER
WORDING OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
SNOW/LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITONS IN WSW STATEMENT UNDER THE DOMINANT
BAND...STRESSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS PARTICULARLY THE
LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE THAT DOMINANT COULD GET PUSHED SOUTH OF
HOUGHTON FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EVEN AFFECT NE ONTONAGON
AND NRN BARAGA COUNTIES BEFORE SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK WSW AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO SFC RDG
BUILDING IN FM THE WEST.

THE REST OF THE CWA WILL FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE BITTER COLD AIR
FLOODING THE REGION. MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
25 BLO ZERO OR COLDER TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF INTERIOR OF THE CWA
AS ACTUAL TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOR W TO NW FAVORED SNOW BELTS OFF AND ON. FOR THE REST OF UPPER
MI...ONLY BRIEF ROUNDS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED.
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE
REINFORCING SHOTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND MULTIPLE WEAK TROUGHS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST
OF THESE IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN DECENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS GOOD. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WI THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY. BESIDE MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV WITH THE TROUGH...THERE WILL
BE LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THOUGH A SECONDARY SFC LOW FORMING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE THE TO MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/WARMER LAKE TEMPS COULD BACK SFC WINDS TO THE SW AND BRING
SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE FAR SE CWA...MINIMAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL...CANNOT FIND ANYTHING TO JUSTIFY
THIS BEING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS.

EXPECTED WNW LES WILL BE SLOW TO GET GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
THE MAIN SFC-H8 TROUGHS PASS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF BOUT OF
SNOW ALONG THESE TROUGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO BROUGHT HIGHER POPS
INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NO REAL MEANS TO
GET RID OF IT. THIS IMPACTS LOW TEMPS...SO HAVE INCREASED THOSE A
DEGREE OR TWO. CLOUD COVER MAY CREATE SOME DISPARITY IN MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEST HALF REACH THEIR FORECAST MIN TEMPS TO -10F.

LES PICKS UP IN INTENSITY WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON CONSIDERABLE SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE AS THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH
HOLDS ON OVER WARMER LAKE WATERS. COULD SEE AN IMPRESSIVE LES BAND
IN FAR NORTHERN LUCE TO NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. LOCATIONS VERY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF GRAND MARAIS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF 8
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS CLOSER TO WHITEFISH POINT POSSIBLY
SURPASSING A FOOT...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOT HAS
TO BE IRONED OUT WITH BAND PLACEMENT...SO DID NOT ISSUE AN LES WATCH
ATTM.

A WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
ENHANCE SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPS EVEN
COLDER FOR THE DAY. WITH H8 TEMPS AT -25C AND CONTINUOUS CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...INTERIOR WEST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER...MAY FAIL TO GET ABOVE ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC
WIND FIELD BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW
TRACKS SE ACROSS IA...BUT A WEAK SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHT
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE CWA. DID BUMP TEMPS BACK UP A
COUPLE DEGREES THOUGH AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY BE ON THE RISE
LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER JET AND SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID...SOME OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA COULD SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS -20F. THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL STILL DROP AS LOW AS -35F FOR
THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DID NOT FOCUS HEAVILY ON THIS PERIOD GIVEN
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. USED THE ECMWF HEAVILY AS THE GFS HAS
DEVELOPED SOME CONTINUITY ISSUES OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. OVERALL
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...OVERALL SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
PASSING UPPER JET...SOME MINOR SYNOPTIC SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT PLACE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERED AND CONTINUED LES FOR NW SNOW
BELTS SHOULD LAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT MUCH LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT WAS STARTING
TO LOOK LIKE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY BE HALTED BY
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING SE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THIS AND KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

KIWD...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND -SN IN WSW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK MORE SW.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF
NEXT DISTURBANCE THE NOTRHERN PLAINS.

KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS VEER TO THE W AND
BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AS THE HEAVIER LES BANDS SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA.

KSAW...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED THAT WILL LIFT BACK TO
VFR AS A DISTUBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR GALES. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON VEERING WINDS
TO THE WEST AND INCREASING THEM TO GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DECREASE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
LAKE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ245-248>251-265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-265>267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ241>243-246-247.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS