Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC FRONT FROM NEAR MQT-IMT
AT 00Z/SAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI BY 06Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL PCPN SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET
OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH 06Z WITH QPF
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ONLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...EXPECT CLEARING FROM THE NW EARLY WITH BREEZY NRLY WINDS
AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -1C TO 4C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH WITH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NRN LAKES
RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 0.25 INCH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY OR COMPLETELY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE E
2/3 WITH FCST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...FCST TEMPS REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE LAKES.

SUN-THU...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MAINLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS WAA WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WED. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THU AS SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT EDGES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS


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