Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
446 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

High impact weather in next 24 hours limited to prolonged small
craft conditions on Bay of Green Bay and adjacent open waters of Lk
Michigan with persistent ene winds up to 25-30 mph at times. May be
slightly breezy along shoreline of Menominee county and sw Delta
county where M-35 is located, but otherwise winds over the land
areas of cwa will be light.

Upper low that brought unsettled weather over the area earlier
this week is over the Lower Great Lakes, at least through tonight.
NE winds between that low and high pressure ridge over northern
Ontario and lingering low-level moisture is leading to sct-bkn
clouds over west and north central Upr Michigan while other areas
are mostly clear. For most part models are overdone with extent of
sub 1000ft moisture but these clouds should stay around in some
fashion through the morning before mixing out/dissipating this
aftn. NE winds off Lk Superior may keep clouds in longer over far
west near IWD. Coolest temps today in low 60s far west but where
skies are sunny should see readings into the upper 60s to around
70. NE winds will keep shoreline of Lk Superior cooler as well.

Upper low begins to head back north tonight but it should stay far
enough away to keep conditions dry. Will see increasing mid clouds
late over the southeast cwa. Lowest PWAT and lightest winds will be
over west. Kept idea of temps lower than lowest guidance for typical
inland west cold spots. Also put mention for patchy fog across the
west interior with some hint that sub 1000ft moisture returns.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Nam a closed 500 mb low over the Ohio Valley with a trough on the
west coast 12z Fri. The closed low heads north into Indiana 12z Sat
and into southern Lake Michigan 12z Sun. Nam brings in some deeper
moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence Sat into the southern
and eastern cwa. GFS and ECMWF show something pretty similar.

Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. Have
the highest pops in the south and eastern cwa and lowest across the
west and north. Did not make too many changes to temperatures either.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over lower
MI 12Z Sun and a trough in the western U.S. This low with the
associated trough will move into the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon with
a shortwave ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The western U.S.
trough moves into the Rockies 12z Tue. This trough then moves into
the northern and central plains 12z Wed. This trough will move a
cold front through on Wed. Temperatures look to be above normal for
this forecast period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 137 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Northeast winds north of departing low pressure system will keep
some lower cigs across the area into early Thu morning. Expect the
more persistent IFR/LIFR cigs to be at IWD where NNE will provide
more of an upslope component to aid stratus formation. Expect MVFR
cigs to persist at least through a portion of the overnight at SAW
in ne flow while VFR conditions are expected at CMX. Conditions
should improve quickly to VFR at IWD and SAW by late Thursday
morning with some diurnal heating/mixing.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

A general weak pressure gradient across Lk Superior through the
weekend and early next week should keep east to northeast winds at
20 kts or less.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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