Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE WEST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG THIS MORNING THAT SHOWS UP AS DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND
IS HEADING SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MORE TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR TUE.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT AND TUE
OVER THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING AS WELL AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS FORECAST.

MAJOR CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE POPS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND THEN TO HAVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR TUE
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE AS THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN IN THE WEST
WITH THE WARMER AIR IN THAT AREA ALOFT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER HIGHS
A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGING MORE
CLOUDS AND PCPN TO THE AREA FOR TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD INTO MN
LATER TODAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN TO IWD THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON TUE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RA/SN MIX TO IWD
FOR TUE MORNING AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW INTO CMX AND SAW TUE
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07


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