Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 050744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL UPPER MI. MODELS SHOW Q-VECT
DIV/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF MID-LVL RIDGE
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SFC-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL CU LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER INLAND AREAS AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...SINCE MODELS SHOW BUILDING 5H HGTS AND MINIMAL OR NO
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE INLAND SW. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH SFC
HIGH OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAYS READINGS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES 12Z THU. BOTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES HEAD EAST THU NIGHT AND
AFFECT THE AREA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. ALL MODELS KEEP SOME WEAK 850-
500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN BRING IN SOME CHANCE
POPS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR THU AND FRI. WENT WARMER ON THU BECAUSE POPS WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR REMAINS AND FORCING IS OFF WELL TO
THE WEST THU MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
POISED TO COME INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT. THIS TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND IS STILL IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN. THE
500 MB RIDGE GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES 12Z MON.
THE RIDGE GETS AMPLIFIED TUE OVER THE ROCKIES MORE AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MEAN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL HAVE SOME
POPS INTO MON AS THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SET UP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

DRY AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH
PRES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF WIDELY FLUCTUATING VIS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS


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