Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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423
FXUS63 KMQT 300029
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
829 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
COOLING OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAY INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG
ALONG THE SHORELINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

850 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY THAN TODAY AND WITH SOME
THICKENING OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH AND
THUS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS. HAVE ALSO TRENDED
STRONGER WITH WINDS OVER WESTERN U. P. SHORES AND LAKE SUPERIOR PER
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

IT STILL APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. IN GENERAL...
RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA
AND AT TIMES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK
AMPLITUDE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS
ENERGY APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES
TROF TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. THUS...
THERE IS LITTLE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CANADA RIDGE WHICH REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED TO DROP
FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD FROPA
PROBABLY OCCURRING TUE NIGHT. SO...FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS FROPA
BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL THAT IS WORTHY OF A MENTION IN FCST.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE
TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN MAXES. AFTER LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGE THRU SUN...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE
AREAS COOLER. WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE
NIGHT. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL
INTO 60S. COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO. OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO ON WED
WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLD THIS FEATURE OVER OR N OF HUDSON BAY.
TODAY`S 12Z GFS DELAYS ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO
UNTIL FRI. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY MAY
WITH GFS SHOWING MIN 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN AROUND 5150M JUST NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. THU SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WED...BUT STILL COOL. WARMING WILL CONTINUE
FRI. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...AS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...TODAYS 00Z/12Z
NAEFS OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO KEEP UPPER MI ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL
TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER SE CANADA. SO...TEMPS ACROSS UPPER MI
SHOULD OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY...BUT PROBABLY WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY PATCHY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING NE WINDS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST
SPEEDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WINDS
THEN REMAINING UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-25KT OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...RJT



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