Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 300858
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE DEPARTING RAIN SHOWERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS OF 4AM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO MUNISING. TO THE WEST...HAVE SEEN AN
OCCASIONAL REPORT OF DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 8-10MI AT KIWD...LEADING TO
THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FOG. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL ARE
STARTING TO NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH CEILINGS RISING TO
VFR VALUES AT KCMX THIS PAST EVENING AND IN NW WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE THE OVERALL PUSH IS TO
THE SOUTHEAST (AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN). THUS...WILL SHOW CONTINUED DECREASING POPS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWERS
OUT OF THE U.P. BY MID MORNING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...THAT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR (ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH) WILL EAT AWAY AT WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED
SUNSHINE...THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE U.P. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. DUE TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. SEEING HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

THE HIGH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCES CONCERNS ON HOW
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.25IN (NEARING RECORD LOW VALUE
FOR KGRB SOUNDING ON 5/31 AT 12Z OF 0.23IN) WOULD LEAD TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BUT WITH THE HIGH STAYING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW TO (925MB WINDS OF 20-25KTS) TO LEAD TO SOME MIXING
AND KEEP THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMAL COLD RAWS SITES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH GRB...ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/IRON AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S (WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BOUNCING OF
VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE IN SOME
LOCATIONS). HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL U.P. AND
THE KEWEENAW FOR THE EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST. DID LEAVE
OUT SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTY FOR NOW...SINCE FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID 30S AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. THAT LED TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE
FINAL LOOK.

FINALLY...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS CONTINUES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES STAYING STEADY
ABOUT 0.1FT ABOVE ACTION STAGE OVER THE LAST 18-20HRS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LAST 24HRS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE
OVERALL CHANGES THAT WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE LONG TERM. NRN
STREAM RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA
VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY
MUCH OF THIS YEAR...WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE NW OF
ALASKA. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS
WHICH WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) DURING
THE MID AND LATE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRIOR TO THAT...ONE LAST
SURGE OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY DIVING S INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING FROSTY NIGHTS (TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN MON
NIGHT IN SOME AREAS). AS FOR PCPN...DRY/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL
DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER SLOW MOVING SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE. DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PATTERN LOOKS
ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SUN...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT E TO QUEBEC ON SUN...RIDGING BACK TO THE WSW WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN TYPICAL EARLY WARM SEASON FASHION. SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY SPREAD A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST
AREA DURING THE DAY PER GFS/NAM RH PROGS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM
AROUND 50 N TO AROUND 60 SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STAY IN THE 40S.

UNDERNEATH THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SUN NIGHT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL ACROSS UPPER MI IS BETTER SUN NIGHT THAN TONIGHT.
NAM/GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER SUN NIGHT IS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...
SUGGESTING SIMILAR COOLING POTENTIAL BTWN THE 2 NIGHTS. HOWEVER...
THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS CLOUD COVER AS THE AFORMENTIONED SLOW
MOVING SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. GFS/NAM SUGGEST SCT TO
PERHAPS BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. NORMALLY WOULD GO AT OR BLO
LOWEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND SFC RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITHIN THE
LOWER RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE TEMP SPREAD FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF DRIFTING E OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY MON...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE COMPARED TO SUN. SFC HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SO IT WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY WITH A MESO HIGH PRES CENTER REDEVELOPING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTN...PROBABLY OVER NRN LAKE MI AS WELL.
THUS...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

ON MON NIGHT...DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY CNTRL
AND E WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS AROUND A QUARTER INCH. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND RETURN
FLOW BEGINS...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ONE
MORE CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA.
CONTINUED THE COOLER TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR MIN TEMPS MON
NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. INCREASING MOISTURE/RETURN FLOW
WILL YIELD A WARMER NIGHT OVER THE W...MORE NOTABLE IN THE AREAS
THAT SEE DOWNSLOPING UNDER S WINDS.

DRY WEATHER LINGERS TUE WITH TEMPS BACK CLOSE NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS
RISE TO AROUND 6C BY MIDDAY. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 WEST AND
AROUND 60 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE WED THRU FRI TIME FRAME. WITH SFC
HIGH PRES TO THE E AND LOW PRES TROFFING OVER THE PLAINS...
WARMTH/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BUILD N AND E TOWARD THE AREA. COLD
FRONT DRIFTING S AND E THRU SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES
WILL BE A KEY FEATURE FOR FOCUSING SHRA/TSRA...THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SVR STORMS LATE WEEK. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS FRONT SETTLING OVER UPPER MI BY FRI MORNING AND DRIFTING S
INTO WI/LWR MI BY SAT MORNING. IF THE FRONT DOES END UP OVER UPPER
MI FRI MORNING...THU/FRI WILL PROBABLY BE THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HVY
RAINFALL AS GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER TO A LITTLE OVER 200PCT OF
NORMAL. WARMING WILL CONTINUE WED/THU. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS WILL BE MOST
CRITICAL CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AS THAT AREA WILL SEE AN ONSHORE
WIND IF THE FRONT DOES DROP INTO UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND. THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION AND
IFR CIGS AT SAW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LEADING TO A GENERALLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. THERE MAY BE SOME NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KT AT SAW...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25KTS THIS MORNING (AND MAYBE SOME GUSTS TO
30KTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS) BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS (LARGELY UNDER 15KTS) THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FINALLY...WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TO EXPIRE AT 5AM THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR ARRIVING WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE LACK OF FOG ON SHIP
OBSERVATIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003>006-011>013.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SRF



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