051
FXUS64 KSJT 141758 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1258 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Sunny skies are on tap for most of the day today as a weak mid-level
ridge is currently over Texas.  A surface high over central Texas
this morning should drift eastward by this afternoon.  As a result,
weak southerly surface flow will start to increase by noontime.
Although dewpoints this morning are in the mid 50s to around 60,
some drying will occur in western counties as the dryline mixes
eastward.  Along and ahead of the dryline, CAPE values could range
from 1500-1800 J/kg.  The mid-level ridge should provide a fairly
stout cap to suppress widespread convection.  However, a few storms
could muster up enough vertical motion and punch through the cap,
especially if they can reach convective temps around 90. In fact, hi-
res models show the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms
developing from the Concho Valley northward through the western Big
Country.  Forecast soundings show an inverted V in the lowest
levels, so any storms will likely be high-based, which could produce
gusty winds and very little rainfall. Given the fact that the
dryline is the only source of forcing, storms will have a narrow
window to develop late this afternoon into early evening before
the dryline starts retreating westward. Warm southerly flow should
continue overnight with low temperatures only falling to the
upper 60s, which is about ten degrees warmer than last night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The next upper level disturbance/storm system is due in by middle of
this week and at the surface will see a dryline moving near our area
Wednesday night and a weak cold front and dryline intersection in
the Trans Pecos by Thursday morning. Also, strong instability,
rich low level moisture(dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s) will be
over much of the area with some vertical wind shear(strong mid
level flow). As a result, expect a few rounds of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening. The month of May is the peak of severe weather season, so
can not rule out a few severe storms mainly on Thursday afternoon
and evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Going with mainly low to medium chances of rain. The
highest rainfall amounts look to be across the eastern Big Country
and Heartland. Look for dry and hot weather this weekend through
next Tuesday as a sub-tropical ridge builds across the area along
with an 850 MB thermal ridge. Highs will be in the 90s to around
100 Sunday and Monday

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the
next 24 hours. Light winds will become southeast 5-8 knots by
late this afternoon. Have a low possibility for an isolated
thunderstorm or two late this afternoon and evening in a
corridor from the western Big Country and Concho Valley into
our southeastern counties. However, low confidence in occurrence
or placement precludes a mention in our TAFs at this time.
Nevertheless, will monitor and update any TAFs if needed. Winds
will veer to the south overnight, with an increase in speeds
(10-15 knots) and possible gusts 18-20 knots at KABI and KSJT.
Increased and gusty south winds are expected area wide from mid-
morning Wednesday into the afternoon. Gusts are expected to be
around 25 knots at KABI and KSJT, and 20-23 knots at our southern
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     88  68  90  64 /   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  94  67  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
Junction    95  66  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
Brownwood   86  63  90  65 /  10  10   0  20
Sweetwater  90  68  90  65 /  10  10  10  30
Ozona       92  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  20
Brady       87  65  89  67 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19