938
FXUS61 KCAR 162309
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
709 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across the Interior Downeast
region tonight and gradually shift off shore on Friday. High
pressure ridges over the area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update...
See updated aviation section.

A stationary front was situated from west to east across the
region at this hour. Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows
showers along the boundary were continuing to decrease in
coverage/intensity with the loss of daytime heating. Expect any
showers to continue to wane through early this evening. Just
minor adjustments to hourly temperatures/dew points, otherwise
no other changes as forecast remains on track.

previous discussion.
Currently, a stationary front remains draped across
the Central Highlands and stretching NE into southern Aroostook
County. South of this boundary, the sea breeze has pushed
northwards well into the Interior Downeast region, with moderate
rainfall and isolated thunderstorms continuing into the late
afternoon hours. Both surface boundaries are slow moving, but
should they meet each other, could initiate further shower and
storm development into central Penobscot and southern Aroostook
counties early this evening. Otherwise, showers will decrease
into the overnight hours due to lack of diurnal heating and the
reversal of the sea breeze during nocturnal hours.

Friday will see a shift in the front positioning as it moves
offshore, yet a generally unsettled pattern will remain with
another approaching longwave trough. Rain showers may return to
the area, especially across the north, Friday afternoon around
peak diurnal heating. With the post-frontal environment along
the coast, the sea breeze on Friday is expected to be less
potent than seen this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge will begin building in with diurnal showers dying
off over nwrn zones Friday evening. SFc ridge axis will nose in
from the northeast early Saturday morning and influence the
weather during the day on Saturday. With mostly cloudy
conditions expected temps will start off in the lower 50s on
Saturday and climb to around 70 inland with m/u 50s right along
the shore.

Ridge axis likely to impact the weather on Sunday with partly
cloudy skies expected late in the weekend. ENE winds on Sunday
will keep temps slightly cooler than Saturday with highs over
most inland areas around 70 degrees, if that.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface ridge axis will continue to bring  quiet wx to most of
the area on Monday. We will likely see a warm front lift over
the area on Tuesday, bring temps up into the 80s with u50s along
the coast. Surface high pressure will be shifting to the east
as upr lvl ridge also drifting east. 12z guidance looks to be
on different pages regarding breakdown of the ridge with GFS
bringing wave across CWA Tuesday afternoon through the night
and EC/CMC just giving our area a glancing blow. For the time
being have kept NBM/s idea of 20 pops for Wednesday.

As upr low slides twd the area, rain chances will begin to
increase toward the end of the week. Temperatures will be well
above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday while falling back but
still remaining above normal next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday
afternoon at all TAF sites from BGR on North through the
Aroostook terminals.

Uncertainty exists in the potential for fog/low ceilings
developing vicinity of KBHB after 06Z Friday. Have included a
change group at 06Z to include 2SM BR SCT007 but confidence is
low. VFR expected on Friday.

Light and variable wind through Friday.


SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Saturday night...Mainly VFR with ocnl MVFR at
times in light showers, mostly over northern terminals. Light E
Friday night and Saturday night, E 5-10kts Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...VFR. E 5-10kts becoming S 5kts Monday.

Tuesday...VFR with MVFR moving in late. SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Friday. Wind gusts may approach 20 kts
early Friday morning prior to decreasing once more through the
day on Friday. Areas of dense fog possible overnight over the
waters, limiting visibilities.

SHORT TERM: Seas will be marginal but likely below 5ft Friday
night into Saturday morning in serly swell. Remainder of the
period will see winds and seas well below small craft levels
into early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Buster
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Buster