796
FNUS73 KGRR 100815
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Barren Plains 2 RX...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
415 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
There are patches of fog in the area this morning, but that fog
should go away with daytime heating and a deepening mixing
height. Winds early this morning will be very light with some
variability in direction, but confidence is pretty good that
light winds from the northwest or west will become more
established around or shortly after scheduled ignition. Some
models suggest a chance of winds from the west-southwest but
this is not the most likely scenario.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........52 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6500 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........West 7 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....90 /poor/ at ignition. Max...910 /excellent/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
Sky (%).........38     37     55     34     23     34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............52     59     61     63     63     60
RH..............74     53     42     38     38     44
20 ft wind......NW 5   NW 8   W 10   W 10   W 10   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.7      13     14     15     15     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   5600   6300   6300   5600   1700
Mixing wind.....W 7    NW 12  W 13   W 13   W 16   W 12
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3
Smoke disprsl...90     650    800    790    910    200

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 8 mph increasing to 8 to
                    10 mph through about 2 am, then shifting to the
                    west 7 to 10 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 10 to 12 mph becoming 9 to 14 mph,
                    then shifting to the west 10 to 14 mph toward
                    daybreak.
Smoke dispersal.....200 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    60 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers through early afternoon. Slight
                    chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 14 to 23 mph increasing to 21 to 25
                    mph late in the day.
Smoke dispersal.....190 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    970 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Joshua Nichols
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413621.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joshua.nichols@usda.gov