509
FXUS64 KHUN 021842
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
142 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few clusters of showers and storms have developed along a weak
convergence boundary along and just south of the Tennessee River
this afternoon. The main threats with this activity will mainly be
lightning, locally heavy downpours, and perhaps some brief gusty
winds through late this afternoon/early this evening. With the
setting sun, this activity will wane and the end result will be
tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley overnight as cloud
cover breaks up. However, due to the mostly clear/calm conditions
and moist boundary later, a favorable setup for patchy fog will be
in place late tonight into early Monday morning. It`s possible a
few spots may become locally dense and that`s something we`ll have
to watch for later this evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Early morning fog will quickly dissipate and the end result will
be a mostly sunny and rain-free June day on Monday as a subtle
ridge axis noses into the area. It will still feel quite humid,
however, and with highs in the mid to upper 80s and peak heat
indices in the lower 90s. The tranquil weather will be short-lived
as another shortwave will ripple from the Mid South into the
Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday, with medium
chances for showers and storms (40-60%) returning by the
afternoon hours. It`s possible a couple strong storms may develop
during the peak heating afternoon/early evening window with gusty
winds and heavy downpours being the main threats. This initial
activity will wane overnight, but cloud cover will begin to creep
back ahead of the next feature set to bring some additional
chances for convection on Wednesday. More on this in the section
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the
U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a
blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that
extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before
the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday
morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the
afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into
Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes
through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak
shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher).
At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note
that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so
will watch for flooding potential.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing
cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with
highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Have added a TEMPO between 18-22z at both terminals for MVFR/IFR
conditions from a TSRA that may impact either site through the
late afternoon. By the early evening, convection will wane and a
return to VFR conditions will prevail. The one exception may be
late tonight into early Monday morning when some patchy fog may
cause reductions at both sites briefly. Did not have enough
confidence to mention at this time, but future forecasts may need
to add a mention in should confidence increase.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP