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000
FXUS65 KLKN 222005
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
105 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for the chances for active weather to increase
and become more widespread tomorrow and Wednesday, persisting
through the weekend with higher probabilities for rainfall and
thunderstorms late in the week. Temperatures will gradually cool
as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Skies are partly to
mostly sunny across northern and central Nevada this afternoon.
Some mid-level cloudiness is building across central Nevada.
Models have shown mid-level moisture and minimal instability
across this area. Have kept isolated showers and thunderstorms
for the US Highway 50 corridor for this afternoon. Not expecting
much in the way of rainfall. Some overnight showers, isolated in
nature, is also expected. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and
40s.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, southwest flow aloft will continue.
Light winds are expected across the north while some afternoon
breeziness to 25 mph for central Nevada. Isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are again possible, mainly in
the central and northern sections, though accumulations will again
be light. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few showers
will hang around for the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

Showers will be winding down Wednesday morning as the first
shortwave trough exits eastward. Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning the southern stream upper low will transit
through southern Nevada bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms. By Friday a stronger northern stream upper trough
will follow right on the heels of the southern trough. For the
weekend the active pattern continues with another pair of northern
stream upper troughs that will move through Saturday and Monday
of the following week. Precipitation chances Wednesday through
Saturday will run at about 70% to 90%, at this time snow levels
look to be around 7000 ft to 8000 ft, so look for a mix of rain
and thunderstorms for the valleys and passes, with snow for the
mountain ranges. Precipitation chances drop off to 50% to 70% for
the weekend into Monday, with snow levels rising to 7500 ft to
8500 ft Amounts with each system will be light for Wednesday,
heavier amounts possible Thursday and Friday, with light
accumulations for the weekend into Monday. Overall storm total
accumulations for the week of systems looks to be decent, with QPF
amounts of 0.25” to 1.25” of rainfall for the valleys and passes.
Snow wise the mountain ranges above 8000 feet could see up to 10
inches of new snow through Monday of next week. Temperatures and
Winds: Give the active weather pattern temperatures will be
cooling through the long term with highs starting in the low 60s
to low 70s, dropping into the upper 40s to upper 50s for the
weekend. Lows will follow suite with temperatures in the upper 30s
to upper 40s, dropping into the upper 20s to upper 30s for the
weekend. Winds will be generally out of the W to SW at speeds of
10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH through Friday. Winds shift
to more of a W to NW direction Friday evening through Monday, but
will remain at similar speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30
MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Tuesday. VCTS will be possible for KELY this afternoon
with VCSH possible for KTPH as a dissipating frontal zone
associated with a departing upper system acts as a focus for mid
level moisture. Any storms/showers that do form should dissipate
by 3Z this evening. Winds will be breezy out of the WSW at 5KT to
15KT with gusts up to 20KT.

KWMC is AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions continue thru today with temperatures remaining warm,
which will help to accelerate the melting of mid and high
elevation snowpack. Valley and mid-elevation rain showers are forecast
beginning Tuesday as an active weather pattern takes hold. Cooler
temperatures are also expected for the second half of the week,
likely slowing high elevation snow melt.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, and will likely
rise further in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast
to reach minor flood stage in the Wednesday timeframe.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river
is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over the next several
days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the next
several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action
stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

86/98/98