716
FXUS64 KOHX 141651
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1151 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Light showers continue across our west and some new showers have
developed across our southeast. The main focus of the forecast is
this afternoon as we monitor the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. The biggest question is will the atmosphere
be allowed to destabilize enough for strong convection to happen?
Looking to our west, there are pockets of clearing in the clouds,
so if that trend continues east behind these ongoing showers,
then we`ll likely be able to achieve higher instability. Another
question is will enough dry air filter in aloft to increase our
lapse rates? Profiles are pretty saturated this morning, so
unless more dry air builds in in the mid-levels, this will also
hurt strong thunderstorm development. The line of thunderstorms has
developed over northern MS and western TN and is moving east-
northeast towards ours area.

IF we are able to destabilize and lapse rates steepen a bit more
to get a good updraft going, storms will have the potential to
produce damaging winds and hail. The latest short-term guidance
suggests that our atmosphere will destabilize with surface-based
instability values near 2000 J/Kg and mid-level instability (for
hail potential) near 1500 J/Kg this afternoon. 0-6km shear is
still on the low-ish side on most of the new models; between 25-30
kts, but that`s still enough for thunderstorms to work with.
Models show mid-level lapse rates reaching 7 C/km or a touch
higher, specifically across our southeastern counties. For the
wind threat, DCAPE and PWAT values are quite high for this
afternoon, lending to the thought of some heavy downpours coming
out of the storms, increasing wind potential. In terms of tornado
threat, 0-1km storm-relative helicity values are showing at or
below 100 ms2/s2, so tornadoes are lower on the list of threats
today. I`m hesitant to say the threat is zero because the
ingredients are there, even if some are a bit lacking. Regardless,
be weather aware this afternoon in the event a warning be issued
for your area! Timing of thunderstorm impacts looks to be from 1pm to
7 or 8pm tonight.

A cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight, and
as the surface low continues to spin out of the area, some scattered
showers can be expected to linger into the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Shower activity will decrease and things should mostly clear out
come Wednesday night. A ridge will quickly build in aloft that will
help squeeze our temperatures up into the mid 80s by Thursday and
also give us a rain-free day. But as quickly as that ridge moves in,
it moves out, and we`ll be on to our next round of unsettled weather
Friday and into the weekend. Rainfall amounts this weekend are near
1".

Weekend temperatures look to hang right around 80, warming into
the mid 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

SHRA/TSRA with MVFR conditions will continue to affect and move
across airports this morning, before additional showers and
storms with MVFR/IFR conditions arrive this afternoon. All precip
will end this evening with dry conditions tonight, but MVFR/IFR
cigs/vis will still impact CSV/SRB. South winds up to 10 knots are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  62  77  62 / 100  50  60  10
Clarksville    75  60  75  59 / 100  50  50  10
Crossville     72  57  70  57 /  80 100  90  20
Columbia       77  60  77  59 /  90  40  50  10
Cookeville     75  59  71  59 /  90  90  90  20
Jamestown      74  57  71  57 /  90 100  90  20
Lawrenceburg   76  61  76  59 /  90  50  50  10
Murfreesboro   78  61  77  59 / 100  60  70  10
Waverly        76  59  76  58 /  90  40  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Shamburger