Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FNUS71 KPHI 211716
FWSPHI

Spot Forecast for Long Pond Barrens -...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
116 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure extending eastward from the Midwest to the Mid-
Atlantic will continue to build steadily eastward toward the
East Coast through Tuesday, while low pressure passes off the
Carolinas today and tonight. A cold front will swing through our
region on Wednesday, followed by another area of high pressure
pushing southeastward from the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (39900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
ADI.................58 to 80.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   4   4   3   3   5   6   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............37  41  44  47  49  50  53  55  53
RH..............61  50  45  37  33  30  26  24  25
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   12  12  13  14  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.16  16  17  18  18  20  20  20  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.4 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.18  20  18  18  18  18  18  17  16
ADI.............58  67  70  73  77  79  80  76  71
Vrate kt-ft/1K..40  58  67  73  82  86  90  88  80
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Patchy frost
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........58 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the evening, then shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph overnight shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (69100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
ADI.................91 early in the evening decreasing to 2 late in
                    the night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7   5   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   6   9   12
Weather cov.....                                PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....                                FST FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  49  43  41  39  37  35  34  33  33  32  32
RH..............27  30  41  42  46  50  54  56  58  56  58  58
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..10  9   6   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.15  12  7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.15  10  8   6   5   6   5   5   5   5   6   6
ADI.............91  7   4   3   2   3   2   2   2   2   2   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..69  13  5   2   1   2   1   1   1   1   2   2
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy frost early in
                    the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind shift..........
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 15 to 16 mph with
                    gusts to around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest 20
                    to 24 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (97600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (103300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 102 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  13  13  14  15  16  19  23  27  29  31  33
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............34  36  39  43  47  51  54  56  58  59  60  59
RH..............58  56  52  49  45  42  40  38  39  37  37  40
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   8   10  13  14  16  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   12  15  18  23  25  28  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 0.8 1.9 2.9 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   9   12  13  15  16  17  20  21  22  23  24
ADI.............3   9   12  31  53  60  68  77  86  91  97  102
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   5   8   21  37  55  67  79  92  98  103 109
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD

$$
Forecaster...MPS
Requested by...Pat McElhenny
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411514.1/PHI
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL pmcelhenny@tnc.org


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