391
FXUS65 KPIH 150810
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

High pressure will build into the region for the next couple of days
and most of the area should experience dry weather. There is quite a
bit of moisture still around from the recent systems and an isolated
shower remains possible with the better chances along ridgelines and
across the eastern highlands where the overall flow can interact
with the terrain. Winds are generally downvalley this morning across
the Snake Plain but light enough that a lake wind advisory looks
unlikely (30 to 40 percent chance of exceedance). Winds are expected
to go upvalley this afternoon but still relatively light. Winds look
stronger on Thursday. Currently, models indicate that exceeding lake
wind thresholds for American Falls of SW at 20 mph is likely (around
70 percent). Highs today expected to be around 70 in the Snake Plain
and Magic Valley with mid and upper 70s likely for Thursday in those
areas.

13

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. Friday looks to fairly
breezy across eastern Idaho. A low drops down along and east of the
Divide, helping to kick up the wind...along with some showers and
storms along the Divide and Wyoming border. Our Blend of Models has
wind gusts of 45-55 mph across a good chunk of the area. There is a
55-75% chance of exceeding 55 mph across the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, and a 30-50% chance of exceeding 60 mph...which is High Wind
Warning territory. The models are still suggesting low pressure will
develop and deepen over the northwest U.S. Around 80% of the
clusters agree with setting up the low somewhere in our general
area. The current forecast shows a gradual increase in showers and
thunderstorms heading through the weekend and early next week.
Temperatures will also drop back into the 50s and 60s for the valley
locations. Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...A lingering shower may be possible near IDA/PIH/DIJ for
a couple hours this morning. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the
remainder of the day with vfr conditions likely. Winds look
relatively light with typically upvalley winds developing at KSUN
for the afternoon.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flood warnings continue for the Portneuf River in
Pocatello and the Blackfoot River near Shelley. A flood advisory
continues along the Portneuf River at Topaz. Water levels are slowly
expected to recede over the upcoming week along all eastern Idaho
waterways.
McKaughan/13

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$