Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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225 FXUS61 KRLX 181559 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1159 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms this weekend could cause localized high water, mainly this afternoon and evening. High pressure surface and aloft builds through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM Saturday... Fine-tuned timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Other than that, and shaking the stratus the fog lifted into, the forecast is on track. As of 155 AM Saturday... An upper level disturbance will pull out of the area early this morning, providing an end to the widespread rain. Moisture will remain behind however, so some showers remain possible. Daytime heating will work with the moisture left behind to provide afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will be more numerous in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. While precipitable water values will drop some compared to Friday, the ground is now saturated in most locations. Am also concerned with the slow moving nature of the storms today. Therefore can not rule out some isolated flash flooding. With all the recent rainfall and light winds tonight, expect dense fog to form at most locations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... The surface low responsible for the heavy rain will be out of our area on Sunday, but remnant moisture will linger across the area, mostly along the eastern mountains. This will only manifest as afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm or two across the higher elevations though. Thankfully, any additional rainfall amounts look rather light. Stark clearing will take place from west to east on Sunday as an upper-level ridge moves in to bring most of us a bit of a dry spell to end the weekend. Temperatures will be warm and above normal for the season, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s being common across the lowlands; 70s in the mountains. On Monday, the ridge will continue to build, keeping us mostly dry. A few shortwaves could move through the pattern to create chances for diurnal convection, especially with a warming trend in place. Confidence is low at this time for anything certain or organized. Temperatures will be well above normal with mid to upper 80s expected for the bulk of the lowlands; 70s and 80s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1200 PM Saturday... Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday, although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at this point looking to be to our west, but confidence in this is low at this point due to uncertainty. Another wave looks to move into the area for the end of the period. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 543 AM Saturday... After dense fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck. The cumulus deck could produce MVFR conditions this morning. Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR in dense fog expected Sunday morning. IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY