120
FXUS65 KTWC 011127 AAA
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
427 AM MST Sat Jun 1 2024

...Updated probabilities of 105 degrees next week...

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be above normal over the next
seven days as we begin June. Typical afternoon and early evening
breeziness due to strong solar heating.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A typical early June weather pattern, with high
pressure over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States and
the storm track well north along the Canadian border. This will lead
to generally clear skies through the weekend and some high level
cirrus clouds next week. High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above
normal through next Tuesday. The strong solar/surface heating will
lead to afternoon/early evening breeziness each day. The strongest
sustained wind speeds will be southeast of Tucson Sunday and Monday,
where southwest-west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph
are expected.

By the middle to end of next week, a weak upper low develops near
the Baja Spur and the upper ridge becomes more amplified from west
Texas northwestward across the Intermountain west. This will lead to
warmer temperatures the second half of next week, resulting in
increased heat risk concerns. NBM probabilities for 105 degrees in
Tucson next week have increased to 30% for next Wednesday, 67% for
Thursday and 41% for Friday. The models continue to show southerly
flow developing across Arizona and New Mexico between the upper low
to our west and high pressure to our east late next week. This will
allow for some mid level moisture to be advected into the region
from the south/southeast, resulting in a slight chance of mainly dry
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the forecast area Thursday
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions to a FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the
forecast period. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction
thru 01/18Z and again aft 02/03Z. SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 10-15 kts and
gusts to 18-25 kts between 01/18Z and 02/03Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 2-5 degrees
above normal will continue through next Wednesday. Expect min RH
values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in
the mountains through the middle of next week, along with poor
overnight recoveries between 20-35 percent in most locations. 20-
foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns through Wednesday of
next week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong
surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15
mph or less, except for the potential for some elevated winds at 15-
20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph Sunday and Monday afternoon/early
evening to the southeast of Tucson. There will be a slight chance of
dry thunderstorms east of Tucson Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Zell

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