Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240548 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016


Dry southwest flow aloft with sfc lee trough. As is sometimes the
case, dryline appears to be surging more strongly westward and may
reach the krow and ktcc vcnty between 07-09Z with corresponding
wind shift to sely. Not anticipating MVFR or IFR cigs to develop
at those TAF sites but may be just to the east and extend to the
TX border. Sw winds strengthen again especially aft 24/18Z with
gusts to around 35-40kt but don`t expect any MVFR or IFR cigs
which develop to linger aft 15Z or so.


Southwest winds will be breezy to windy each day along and east of
the central mountain chain through Thursday, and gusty but not
quite as strong farther west. Low humidities will accompany the
stronger winds in the east as well, with fire weather concerns
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weakening upper level low pressure
system will pass eastward along the northern border with Colorado
during the mid to latter half of the week. It will bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly to northern
areas, some of which will produce little or no rain. It will also cause
high temperatures to trend gradually below normal areawide.


A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer a
persistent area of stronger winds aloft over NM from the southwest
through Thursday. Models show a decent shortwave pinching off a
closed low when it rounds the base of the upper trough over S CA,
and this is the feature that will bring a chance of virga, light showers
and light thunderstorms mainly to N NM during the mid to latter
half of the week. Precip chances will become most widespread
Thursday, when western areas will also have a chance for gusty
virga, light showers, and light thunderstorms. The best chance for
spotty wetting precip will be in the mountains near the CO border.

Another upper level trough will deepen over the western U.S. late
in the holiday weekend. This will draw the dryline westward into
New Mexico with a chance of wetter variety showers and storms
along and east of the central mountain chain, possibly as early as Saturday
night, and more likely on Sunday.



Several days of critical fire weather conditions appear to be
possible across the eastern plains starting Tuesday. The Fire
Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening has been upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning. Additionally, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible again on Thursday, although near or just below normal
temperatures across the plains on Thursday may mitigate the threat.

Starting tonight, poor to fair relative humidity recoveries will be
the rule through at least Wednesday night, and may continue across
various areas south of I-40 through the remainder of the week.

On Tuesday, dry, southwest flow will continue as a broad upper level
trough persists across the western ConUS. Mid level dry slot appears
to be much stronger than today, thus, several more hours of single
digit relative humidities are expected across the eastern plains,
and even portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will be a bit
stronger than today as well, with high haines across the board.
Thus, will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch with this package. 0-10cm
soil moisture values continue to drop, and as of this morning, only
a few spotty areas that had recent rains remain above 40%. Given
that these areas are few and far between, issuing a warning appears
prudent. Winds do not appear strong enough in the RGV, and temps are
at or just below normal, so they have not been included in the Red
Flag Warning.

Very little change is expected for Wednesday. Several hours of
single digit RH, strong southwest winds, and high haines remain on
tap. Critical fire weather conditions are possible once again across
the plains. Opted to not include Zone 107 due to temps just below
normal. Otherwise, main difference from Tuesday will be across the
northwest where some mid level moisture may create some virga and
gusty winds. A stray lightning strike is also possible.

The upper low over southern NV on Wed, responsible for the mid level
moisture across the NW, will shift eastward over Colorado and
northern NM and weaken on Thursday. Thursday should be the coolest
day of the week for most locales. Some light precipitation is
possible across the north, while strong winds and low humidities
will persist across the east central plains. Critical fire weather
conditions will be questionable given that temps may be just below
normal. Will need to watch temperature trends before deciding on a

Disturbed zonal flow will be on tap Friday with continued light
showers and thunderstorms across the north and drier conditions
across the south. Less wind is expected. Southwest flow aloft will
return over the weekend, and though the central and western areas
look to remain dry, Gulf moisture may work back into the eastern
plains. Dryline storms look to be possible once again by Sunday

Ventilation rates remain excellent areawide during the next seven



Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.


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