Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 280549 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
Strong outflow boundary from earlier convection over TX panhandle
keeping ISOLD thunderstorms going across eastern NM tonight.
Storms should dissipate after approx 08z. Upper high center will
continue over the southern Great Basin Thursday, sending storms
over NM to the south and southwest. Low level moisture is forecast
to surge back into west- central and northwest NM tonight and
Thursday morning. Favored area for convection Thursday afternoon
and evening will be across the northwest third or so of the
state...especially mountains and northeast highlands/plains.
.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016...
Much drier air moving into New Mexico today will keep the best
chances for storms across the eastern plains and southwest
mountains through the evening. Spotty storms are expected on
Thursday, but storm chances are expected to increase on Friday,
especially across the east, as a boundary moves into the area.
Storms will persist each afternoon through the weekend, however,
storm coverage and the potential for heavy rainfall may increase
early next week. As for temperatures, all areas can expect at or
above normal temperatures through the weekend.
The upper high is parked over the Great Basin today and dry air has
migrated around the high into NM. Earlier today, there was some
suspicion that there may be an increase in activity on the leading
edge of the mid level dry air intrusion. To some extent, this has
come to fruition, as storms have developed across the eastern plains
more-so than yesterday at this time. The ABQ 12Z sounding showed a
PWAT of 1.15" which, though not quite as high as yday at 12Z, still
quite juicy. Unfortunately with the dry air intrusion, this is
likely going downhill fast, if nothing else as evident by
dewpoints falling into the 30s across portions of northern and
western NM. Nonetheless, where the dry air hasn`t taken full
effect, could still be some heavy rain with the stronger storms
thru early eve. Steering flow is taking the storms nearly due
Dry air will continue to round the upper high in New Mexico on
Thursday, which should result in less storm coverage once again.
PWATs should also continue to decrease, lessening the heavy rain
An MCS rolling through KS and OK should push an outflow
boundary/cold front into NE NM late Thursday night into Friday
morning. Though it may spark a storm or two overnight, the boundary
should set the stage for a more active Friday, particularly across
portions of the eastern plains. 12Z models are certainly more
bullish than they have been on the progression of the boundary, with
the NAM now as far south as I-40 by early evening. Upslope flow
behind the boundary, along with higher dewpoints, should also help
ignite storms across the east slopes of the central mountain chain,
which should then move southeastward into the plains.
The upper high will start to migrate back toward NM on Saturday.
Residual moisture will keep it active, especially over and near the
higher terrain. We will also be watching an easterly wave that will
be moving across Mexico. Moisture associated with this feature will
have a chance of moving northward into at least southwest NM by
Sunday as the upper high continues to shift eastward and/or
Most models suggest there will be two high centers or at least a
weakness in the upper high over NM early next week. This should help
funnel more traditional monsoonal moisture into at least across
western and central NM. This should yield greater storm coverage and
perhaps increase the threat for heavy rainfall. With that said, we
are hoping models are just not trending toward climo. Stay tuned.
Upper high has relocated to the Great Basin and is wrapping drier
air into northern and western NM. Dew points have begun to dry out
far west central this afternoon but have been stubbornly stuck in
the 50s most other areas. That said, storm development appears less
widespread this afternoon especially over the northwest plateau and
mts where echoes are absent as of this writing.
Storm motion will be to the south and southwest through this
evening, then to the southwest and west for any cells that happen to
survive after midnight. Cell motion Thursday will be generally to
the east and southeast over the north, and to the southwest and west
for southern areas. Thursday still appears to be the least active
day of the week. Storm outflows will remain the more significant
stronger winds and may serve to initiate storms.
A stronger front on Friday will bring an uptick in thunderstorm
chances and there may still be some wetter days in store this
weekend and next week as models continue to allow the upper high
center to drift aimlessly around the southwestern U.S.
There will be pockets of fair to poor vent rates central on Thursday
over the southeast two thirds Friday and over the southwest third on
Saturday. Temperatures through next Monday will continue to run
above average except the northeast on Friday where they will be near
normal. Humidity recoveries in the northwest may be fair to poor
tonight through Friday night before improving.
18Z TAF CYCLE