Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241013
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow coverage will slowly wane this morning across the Land of
Enchantment, but it won`t totally go away. Showers will continue
through the afternoon and may result in additional small snow
accumulations. Less shower activity is expected on Wednesday and
then it looks dry for the end of the week and into early next
week. Nonetheless, it will remain cold. Below normal temperatures
are in store area wide through the end of the week before a
gradually warming trend begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The snow has arrived. Though it is starting to decrease in
coverage and intensity, there is still enough out there to cause
concern. Therefore, will extend the winter highlights out through
19Z. Even after that time, there will be some instability showers
mainly across the northwest half of NM. These showers could
produce another inch of snow in some locations in brief bursts.
Additionally, it looks like it is unstable enough that there could
be a stray lightning strike, and therefore have added isolated
thunder to much of northwest and north central NM.

In addition to the snow, strong to damaging winds will be the other
concern today. A 60-80kt 7H jet across southeast NM this morning
will pull away this afternoon. Also, despite its distance from NM, a
995mb surface low over KS will allow a strong surface pressure
gradient to persist over NM thru the afternoon. All-in-all, a windy
day is expected for areas along/east of the central mtn chain,
with the strongest winds expected across the south central mtns
and adjacent high plains to the east. Will go ahead and add
Harding and Union county into the existing wind advisories as well.
The winds should taper off by late afternoon.

A few light showers may persist overnight and into Wednesday across
northern NM, but additional accumulations will be minimal.
Temperatures will be well below normal (10 to 20 degrees) area wide
and breezy to windy conditions in northwest flow will make it feel
even colder.

The cold temperatures will persist on Thursday and will be re-
inforced on Friday as another trough slides southward across the
state. A slow warming trend is expected to begin this weekend into
early next week. No precip is expected Thursday and beyond attm.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather into Wednesday, then an extended period of dry
conditions the rest of the week into next week. It will be chilly
though with temperatures below normal for late January through the
rest of the week. Temperatures will slowly rise to near normal this
weekend into early next week.

Snow, rain, thunder, windy and colder today as the latest storm
system impacts NM. The surface cold front is plowing east early
this morning and will reach the TX border by mid morning. Low
pressure centers are located over WY, off the CA coast and in
northwest AZ. It`s the latter one that will provide us with a
plethora of winter weather today into Wednesday. Wind highlights
remain the same except have added the northeast plains to the wind
advisory. Snow and low elevation rain will be off and on today to
most of the area, the exceptions being the far east central and
southeast portion of our CWA. Enough instability exists for a few
rumbles of thunder and flashes of lightning this afternoon over the
northwest and north central areas. Highs will mostly drop below
normal today, 10 to nearly 20 degrees lower than on Monday.

Precipitation will diminish but not totally end tonight, winds will
ease while the temperatures plummet. Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees
lower than this morning, close to normal at most locations.

Snow showers Wednesday will be confined to the northern mountains.
Winds will be much less than today, although still breezy from
Clines Corners to the east central plains. Highs will be 10 to 20
degrees below normal area wide.

An extended period of dry weather is likely Thursday into next week.
Cold nights and chilly days will gradually give way to more seasonal
and reasonable temperatures for the end of January by early next
week. Back door cold fronts on Friday and early next week will have
minimal influence in the northeast.

Ventilation rates will be excellent today and mostly good to
excellent Wednesday. The trend for the late week and weekend will
decrease with widespread poor rates from Friday into early next
week.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
At 06Z...a frontal snowband continues to inch eastward toward
central NM. IFR/MVFR cigs & vsbys already in place around KFMN and
KGUP and this will continue through much of the overnight. Timing
of -SN impacts at KABQ and KAEG remains a big challenge as model
guidance is struggling to hold the snowband together or move it
much farther east despite impressive radar returns. Went with a
few hours of borderline VFR/MVFR with -SN between 07Z and 11Z.
-SN is expected to become terrain dominated behind the frontal
passage thru 14Z as winds turn westerly and drier, colder air
arrives. Winds will be quite strong again Tuesday. Guidance is
showing redevelopment of -SHSN by late afternoon across much of
northern and western NM.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34  17  32  11 /  50  20   0   5
Dulce...........................  29   7  28   2 /  70  30  20  10
Cuba............................  30  12  28   5 /  70  40  20   5
Gallup..........................  31  12  30   2 /  50  30   5   0
El Morro........................  26  13  26   1 /  60  30  10   0
Grants..........................  35  13  30   4 /  40  20   5   0
Quemado.........................  32  14  30   8 /  40  20   5   0
Glenwood........................  45  19  41  19 /  40   5   0   0
Chama...........................  29   3  25  -5 /  80  40  20  10
Los Alamos......................  32  16  29  11 /  50  20  10   5
Pecos...........................  32  15  30  10 /  60  20   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  26   6  25  -6 /  50  30  10   5
Red River.......................  21   5  19  -6 /  70  40  20  10
Angel Fire......................  25   3  22 -15 /  60  40  20  10
Taos............................  33   9  28   1 /  50  20   5   5
Mora............................  32  13  29   7 /  50  20  10   0
Espanola........................  37  17  36  10 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  33  15  29  12 /  50  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  38  16  34  11 /  40  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  22  37  18 /  30  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  23  39  18 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  45  21  40  15 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  21  38  16 /  20   5   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  46  20  42  14 /  20   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  44  22  40  17 /  30   5   5   0
Socorro.........................  45  25  42  22 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  33  19  32  14 /  50  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  37  20  35  15 /  40  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  16  33   7 /  30   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  35  17  30  11 /  40   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  38  20  34  17 /  30   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  44  22  38  19 /  20   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  38  20  34  18 /  30   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  39  12  30   7 /  20  20  10   0
Raton...........................  47  14  34   6 /  20  20  10   0
Springer........................  45  17  37  10 /  20  10  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  14  33   9 /  30  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  53  20  39  16 /  10  10  10   0
Roy.............................  46  19  37  14 /  30  10  10   0
Conchas.........................  51  25  44  21 /  20   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  24  43  20 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  57  24  45  18 /   5   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  55  25  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  56  26  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  26  45  22 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  63  26  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  26  43  20 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  42  23  39  19 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ521-523-524-529-532-533.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ522-525-530-531-534>538.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for the following
zones... NMZ501-504>508-512>518.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ526-539-540.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MST today for the following zones...
 NMZ502-503-510-511.

&&

$$

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