Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251140 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017


Showers and thunderstorms have continued across the northeast to
east central plains of New Mexico through the early morning hours due
to a disturbance aloft crossing the area. Scattered areas of MVFR
CIGS have also developed across portions of eastern New Mexico with
localized IFR CIGS also occurring. The low clouds will slowly erode
away through the late morning hours, and thunderstorms should also
leave New Mexico through this time frame. VFR conditions should
prevail west of the Rio Grande valley through the early afternoon
until a new crop of storms develops. An active bout of thunderstorms
is expected Sunday afternoon and evening with strong to possibly
severe cells resulting in brief MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS, locally
heavy rain, gusty downburst winds, and hail. Today`s storms will
first initiate over the Continental Divide of west central to
southwestern New Mexico and the central mountain chain, generally
drifting southeast and filling into adjacent lower elevations and
valleys toward evening and overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017...
An active thunderstorm pattern can be expected today through Monday.
Strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening east of the Continental Divide to the high plains of eastern
New Mexico to include the central valley corridor. Thunderstorm
complexes could become quite expansive across the eastern plains
tonight into Monday morning. Storm coverage will trend downward
Tuesday before significant drying dominates Wednesday into Thursday.
The next backdoor cold front works south late week boosting storm
chances for areas along and east of the central mountain chain Friday
into the weekend. Daytime temperatures will steadily warm through
mid-week with readings a little above seasonal averages.


Main concern today through Monday will be strong to severe storms, mainly
central/eastern areas. One to 3 inch rainfall totals also look to be
fairly widespread across portions of the NE and EC plains next 24-36
hours including potential for another MCC/MCS there tonight through
daybreak Monday.

Only subtle changes to the synoptic upper-air pattern today/tonight with
a 596dam closed 500mb high centered vicinity of southeast AZ/northwest
Sonora maintaining a modest/weakly perturbed northwest flow aloft
over the area. Closer inspection of 300-400mb levels showed a couple
periods of enhanced upper level divergence modeled from NE/EC into
SC NM; one this morning and another late tonight across a much
broader swath. Otherwise little evidence a well- defined thermal
trough in the mid- level NW flow, but it`s NW flow. The pronounced
directional shear or clockwise turning of wind with height has not
changed appreciably past 24 hours and thus some mid- level rotation
of the most vigorous updrafts are to be expected.

Speaking of vigorous updrafts... West of the Rio Grande, and similar
to Saturday, initial convection should again favor the WC/SW high
terrain east of the Divide as well as Jemez Mountains near midday to
early PM. As these storms slowly propagate southeast during the
afternoon, they will encounter a warmer boundary layer with increased
buoyancy as compared to Saturday. However, unlike Saturday, it
appears that dry air entrainment may play a bigger role and thus
wind vs. large hail may be the bigger threat for the RGV. That being
said, the NAM is not too excited about storm coverage. The GFS and
latest HRRR, on the other hand, are considerably more bullish with
another large cluster organizing between ABQ and Socorro but evenso
surface- based CAPE values here have trended less as compared to
earlier runs. East of the Rio Grande, anticipate the deepest and most
vigorous convection/updrafts with SB CAPE 2000-2500 J/kg indicated
with locally higher values along/immediately east of the central
mountain chain to the northeast highlands mid to late afternoon.
Again, the GFS is especially bullish on coverage but all available
models show strong to severe convection rolling eastward into the

Models continue to advertise a significant drying episode areawide
Wed into Thu. 00Z ECMWF hints at high-based -SHRA/-TSRA vicinity of
the southwest high terrain Thu PM and is also a bit farther south
with placement of a shallow frontal boundary across the far
northeast plains likely to be influenced by eventual evolution of
convective outflow over southeast CO. Outside these two areas on
Thu, we`ll maintain a dry forecast with downslope warming effects
contributing to a return of triple digit heat for places like
Tucumcari and Roswell.

Gradually rising 500mb heights indicated on Fri with baggy trough
well west of the state maintaining predominately dry southwest flow
aloft.  Main challenge will be extent of impacts associated with a
weakening backdoor front that the ECMWF suggests will play a role
Friday/Saturday. The 00Z GFS is much weaker or nonexistent with any
backdoor front during this period. KJ


Thunderstorms are currently in progress early this morning over
northeastern to east central NM, and an active day is expected for a
large majority of the forecast area with regards to additional
storms this afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture remains in
place from Friday night`s frontal intrusion, the exception being the
far northwestern corner of NM where much lower dewpoints are
currently in place. The moisture is expected to filter into this
northwestern plateau region through the morning, but will likely be
fairly shallow and mix back to the east southeast into the
afternoon. Thus, expect elevated chances for wetting precipitation
along and east of the Continental Divide with storms initiating
along the Divide itself and the central mountain chain. Hottest
temperatures will be in the northwest and along the far western
border of the state today where RH will fall to 10 to 20 percent.
Elsewhere RH will be considerably higher with temperatures still
running 5 to 15 degrees below average in the eastern half of the
state. Storms will likely be prevalent into the overnight,
especially in the east with good to excellent RH recovery over the
eastern three quarters of the state into Monday morning.

An active thunderstorm pattern will persist into Monday, although
the coverage will likely not be quite as widespread as today.
Overall, similar temperature and RH trends are expected Monday with
just slightly warmer temperatures in the eastern plains that will
allow RH to drop a few percentage points. Haines values of 6 will be
found in the northwest where the drier/hotter airmass will work back

Into Tuesday, the upper level pattern will start to evolve. The dome
of upper level high pressure that has taken up residence southwest
of NM for a few days now will start to be suppressed by stronger
westerly flow aloft. This will begin to reduce the coverage of
storms on Tuesday afternoon with drier air slowly working in from
the west. Temperatures will respond upward by a few degrees, and RH
will fall with less than 15 percent being observed over most zones
west of the Rio Grande. In addition, western zones will turn more
unstable with Haines indices of 6 becoming more widespread.

The dry air will fully entrain into NM into Wednesday and Thursday,
shutting down storm potential with drier, warmer, and stronger
westerly breezes. This will be a pivotal shift in the pattern, as
moisture will be scoured out, and conditions will quickly turn
unstable with widespread Haines values of 6. After lightning strikes
in the past couple and subsequent days, the upcoming mid week period
will warrant close attention, even though conditions may not
technically meet critical thresholds.

Forecast models continue to hint at a back door frontal intrusion
late in the week, perhaps Thursday night into Friday, but this does
not appear to be as invasive as the most recent one. Thus
temperature relief and moisture return will not be as beneficial or
impact as much of the forecast area. 52




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