Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 092330 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
530 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The main forecast challenge in the short term is the system for
Saturday and Saturday night. The most trusted models have now started
to trend further north with the system, apparently a result of the
system getting picked up by this morning`s upper air data. Now it
appears most of the snow on Saturday during the day will be quite light
and the ABR CWA probably won`t get much more than an inch or so.
Saturday evening/night is when the left exit region of an H3 jet and
mid level pv anomaly bring some decent UVM to the northern part of
South Dakota, and then east into central Minnesota. The latest
GFS/ECMWF are now both transitioning to this prognostication. Still
thinking snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches should cover the situation
fairly well, although a bit more snow in the far east CWA is possible.
However, given the trend north in the models, later shifts will need to
keep an eye on the potential for a bit more snow than currently
forecast. The rest of the short term should feature generally dry
conditions.

As for temperatures, this weekend will be the warmest we`ll see for the
next seven days since several rounds of arctic air are expected to flow
into the region throughout next week.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The long term will be mostly dry, with some low pops initially as a
second cold airmass is headed into the region. Looking at the
general trend for the first half of next week, GEFS shows a blob of
cold air with the core of 850mb temperatures 2 standard deviations
below climo migrating out of Canada. This airmass will dominate
almost the entirety of the extended period. Exact numbers will depend
on the placement of surface high pressure and thus winds and mixing
but the trend should be stable as GFS/EC and GEFS plumes all
indicate this second blast of Arctic air.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Generally looking at a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs tonight, with all
areas seeing MVFR cigs on Saturday as a low pressure system moves
in. Vsbys will be VFR through the night, then look for them to
fall to MVFR levels as well as an area of snow tracks from west to
east across the area on Saturday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin



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