Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161542 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EDGE OF THE SNOW LINE NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT VEBLEN TO
MELLETTE TO MILLER. POINTS EAST ARE STILL RECEIVING SNOW...WITH
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH BEADLE...CLARK AND
CODINGTON COUNTIES. REPORTS OF SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
ACROSS HAND COUNTY DID PROMPT THE EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY BACK
TO INCLUDE HAND COUNTY. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
HAND...BROWN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES SO THE ADVISORY IS NOW ENDING
AT 1 PM...AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE ENDED IN THE COUNTIES BY
THAT TIME. STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. UPDATED ALL THE GRIDS ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER JONES COUNTY. THIS
LOW PRESSURE HAS LIMITED AVAILABLE LLM TO WORK WITH AS MOST
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF LLM...THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SHOULD OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WITH A DEVELOPMENT
OF A MESOSCALE PCPN BAND TODAY...HAVE IGNORED THE POORER GRID
RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ALSO
IGNORED THE NAM WHICH HAS PCPN TOO FAR NORTH.

HAVE RELIED UPON THE GEM REGIONAL AND HI-RES ARW ENSEMBLE MODEL
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM
MILLER TO MILBANK TODAY. WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING 4+ INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS OKAY. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING
MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS AND FAULK...BUT WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY BEYOND TODAYS
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE MODELS ALL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND INSTABILITY...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL/FLAT
RIDGING OVER OUR REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN US. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST
MOVES EAST AFFECTING OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UNDER THIS PACIFIC FLOW...THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE HAD SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
TODAY INTO MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT...ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS SNOW PICKS UP
AT THE SURFACE FOR ESPECIALLY ABR AND ATY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO FALL AT PIR THIS MORNING WITH MBG EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR/MVFR AT PIR...ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...THE SNOW WILL END QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SKIES
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
LOCATIONS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW AT ATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS-SPINK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-
     HAND-MARSHALL.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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