Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXAK69 PAFG 012103
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1203 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN OUT
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. JUST
GOING TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH A CENTER
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HEIGHTS
AROUND 546 DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL FALL A LITTLE AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MAY
SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH AS IT WORKS OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. A
536 DAM LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INJECT SOME
ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIE FROM OVER POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET TO
CAPE NEWENHAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BARROW TO HUSLIA TO
LIME VILLAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO BETTLES
TO SEWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO
CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF
ENERGY AS IT PUSHES INTO AND OVER THE RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE ENERGY...AND
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF WAVES THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET
A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE WEEK GOES ON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE STRONGEST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
ANOTHER 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON THE WEST COAST SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

SURFACE...1041 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MAINLAND WILL
WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS A 991 MB LOW IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR MONDAY
MORNING...AND A 1000 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEMS COMBINE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ANADYR MOVES TO THE ARCTIC THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AT 998
MB...THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 999 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK OVER THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING EAST.
THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM BARROW TO AMBLER TO UNALAKLEET TO
BETHEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO
DILLINGHAM TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR BETTLES TO MCGRATH TO KING SALMON BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
MOVE FROM THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN TO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONTINUES FOR NOW IN
ZONES 204 AND 206...BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL ALSO COVER THE NORTH SLOPE SO CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP...WEST OF
BARROW...FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT SURE ON JUST HOW MUCH. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL
BEGIN ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY ON MONDAY
EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS MID DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER ZONES
214 AND 215 WHEN IT STARTS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN
THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE
COASTAL AREAS AND START WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS. SNOWFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE CENTRAL SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...GOOD NIGHT TO VIEW THE AURORA AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL TONIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN NORMAL LATELY SO
SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 01/1357Z/NPP VIIRS AT 01/1438Z 24 HOUR
AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS CONFIRM THE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE. AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS
PROVIDE EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ONLY STRATUS CURRENTLY
FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
WITH THE EXITING LOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 15



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.