Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 191349
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
549 AM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement out through Thursday before they
start to diverge some. The main forecast challenge for today will
be the potential High Surf along the coast in the Yukon Delta and
portions of Norton Sound.

Aloft, at 500 mb, A shortwave will continue to move eastward
across the eastern Interior today. A tough currently over the
Bering Sea will push into the west coast of Alaska today, into the
western Interior tonight and into the central Interior on
Wednesday and by Thursday this trough will be a broad upper level
trough covering much of northern Alaska. On Thursday a 541 dam
low will move eastward through the Aleutians and to Bristol Bay on
Friday. As this low moves east it will push an upper level ridge
from the Gulf of Alaksa northward into the eastern Interior along
the Canadian Border on Friday with the trough remaining in place
over northwest Alaska.

At the surface, A 1006 mb low over St. Lawrence Island will move
into Norton Sound by 4 PM today. The low will continue eastward
into the Interior and will be near Galena by Wednesday afternoon
(at 1019 mb). A 1027 mb high will build over the Chukotsk
Peninsula on Wednesday. A 1004 mb low 150 NM NE of Deadhorse will
move to 350 NM NE of Deadhorse by this evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build east across the Arctic Coast today. By early
Wednesday morning a 1024 mb high will sit over Barrow and by early
Thursday morning the high will be located 100 NM N of Deadhorse at
1033 mb. The high will continue drifting north and east Thursday
night into Friday. A 993 mb low will move east just south of the
Aleutians Thursday into Friday before moving in the Bristol Bay on
Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior: As the low in the Bering moves
east today it will bring periods of high surf to coastal areas
along the Yukon Delta and portions of Norton Sound. The good news
is that this system will move relatively quickly, so the high
surf will be relatively short lived. High Surf Advisories have
been posted for zones 211 and 214 for today. Precipitation will
spread across the west coast and western Interior as the low moves
eastward. QPF values range from 0.25 to 0.75 inches for most of
the west coast and western Interior through early Wednesday
morning. Colder air moving in will cause snow levels to drop. 2 to
4 inches of snow is possible in the over the higher terrain of
the Seward Peninsula through early Wednesday morning. Showers will
become more scattered on Wednesday as the system moves to the
east.

North Slope and Brooks Range: A front will move across the Arctic
today bringing precipitation to the north slope and Brooks Range.
Along the coast, the heaviest precipitation will be east of
Barrow where QPF values of around a quarter of an inch are
expected through early Wednesday morning. In the Brooks Range 2 to
4 inches of snow is expected through Wednesday morning. An
additional 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible from early Wednesday
morning through early Thursday morning in the eastern Brooks Range
as a system moves in from the southwest. With high pressure
building in along the Arctic Coast I expect issues with fog and
low ceilings to return to areas east of Barrow on Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Interior: A decaying eastward moving front
will bring showers to the eastern Interior today. High
temperatures across the Interior today will generally be cooler
than yesterday. A front will bring precipitation showers to the
central Interior tonight and scattered showers to the eastern
Interior tomorrow. This system could bring 1 to 2 inches of snow
to some of the higher elevations along the Park Road in Denali
National Park on Wednesday. A front will push from southeast to
northwest through the Interior on Friday bringing another round of
showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood advisory remains in effect for the Kobuk River from Kobuk
to Kiana. The Kobuk River crested at the village of Kobuk on
Sunday and water levels are gradually falling but the river is
still near bankfull. The crest of high water reached Kiana on
Sunday and water levels are receding very slowly. Bankfull
conditions and minor flooding are expected to continue through
this afternoon.

High water will continue to move down the Koyukuk River this
week. The Koyukuk River at Hughes crested on Sunday at bankfull
with water spilling overbank in some low lying areas. The Koyukuk
River is expected to crest in Huslia by Thursday with water levels
remaining high into the weekend. The high water will reach the
village of Koyukuk early next week. The elevated water levels will
result in increased debris and erosion along the Koyukuk River.

0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain is expected through early Wednesday
across much of the west coast and western Interior.

 &&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

SEP 17



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