Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 061938
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1138 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12 ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN REMAINS LOW IN THE SHORT RANGE AND IS
REASONABLE IN THE MID TERM AND LONG RANGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LONG WAVE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL AGAIN BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NEAR RUBY EASTWARD TO EAGLE AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
FAIRBANKS AREA. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL
DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BUILDS NORTHWARD AND
THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG SHORT WAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS WILL BEGIN A
SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...DENSE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE SATURDAY BUT WILL IMPROVE SOME
SUNDAY ALONG THE LOWER YK DELTA AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PERIODIC GAP FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACTS TO INCREASE
STABILITY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EASTERN ALASKA NEXT
WEEK...WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST INTERIOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 16


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