Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 261035
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 AM AKDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS AS THE MODELS DIVERGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FROM OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO THE YUKON TERRITORY TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST WITH A 570 DAM HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 549 DAM
LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST TO BE OVER CHICHAGOF ISLAND
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER EAGLE. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND THE 574 DAM HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY. A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL ROTATE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST LATE TODAY
FOLLOWED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BY ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE. AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND
TANANA VALLEY WILL SHIFT NORTH TO THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER YUKON
RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE WEST TO A 1028 MB HIGH 250
NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. A 987 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A 971 MB LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A 1030 MB HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETREAT
TO THE EAST A BIT TODAY WITH RIDGING SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN. STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST AND MAY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR BARROW
DISSIPATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TO
SCATTERED SPRINKLES. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT AROUND
BARTER ISLAND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN 15 TO 25 THIS
EVENING...AND 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS UP THE COAST TODAY...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR A LOT OF COVERAGE...WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...THE NORTHERN NULATO HILLS AND INTERIOR
SEWARD PENINSULA. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK
VALLEYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY EAST AND OVER
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY SOUTH OF EAGLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS TANANA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SPINNING MOISTURE
NORTH EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH VERY DRY FUELS IN THE
INTERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ZONES
223...224 AND 226 OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE DEGREES AND GREEN UP
CONTINUES...THIS WILL HELP GET THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UP A
BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME AS RIVERS LEVELS ON THE
NORTH SLOPE AND IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15



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