Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 272250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT MON MID MORNING. AFTER THAT THE MODELS
DIFFER WIDELY IN MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OR ARCTIC COAST. IT IS UNANIMOUS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD BUT TO WHERE IS THE QUESTION. BUT BY MON NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS NO LONGER A FACTOR ANYWAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO
THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCH EASTWARD
MEANWHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD TO ABOUT
DEMARCATION POINT. THE HIGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE OF AN EXTREMELY
HIGH HEIGHT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
TO BE CONSIDERED AN IMPACT TO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED UP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
THE RETURN FLOW HAS SPREAD RAIN AS FAR AS JUST TO THE EAST OF
EIELSON AFB. FAIRBANKS AWAITS RAINFALL TO TOP THE OLD RAINFALL
RECORD FOR JULY...WITH ONLY 0.19 INCHES OF RAINFALL LEFT TO
ACCOMPLISH THE TASK.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HAS SPREAD
RAINFALL INLAND TO ALMOST KALTAG AS OF SUN AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE MODELS ARE ALL WRONG THUS FAR BECAUSE PRECIPITATION IS
CLEARLY FALLING AT LEAST AS FAR AS KOYUK AND THE MODELS DO NOT
BRING IT IN TILL THIS EVENING. THE THE PRECIPITATION AREA IS MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AS WELL.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF JUL 14



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