Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 052250
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE.
LARGE BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX FROM ESSENTIALLY WELL WEST OF
KAMCHATKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC CENTERED NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH
WEAK CONNECTION TO RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA.

BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE FROM WELL SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND CONNECT WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NORTH ARCTIC ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CIRCULATE THE MUCH COLDER AIR DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PORTION
OF THE RIDGE.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH THE CONFLUENCE BEING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE ARCTIC COAST.

A COUPLE OF WEAK WASHED OUT OCCLUDED FRONTS ARE SWEEPING NORTH
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THEY ARE PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT BUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16


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