Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 130000
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN OLD WEATHER FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT KAKTOVIK TO KOYUK
IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWEST
AND ULTIMATELY WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT LIES OVER ZONE 204
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS EVENING.

A 996 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LIES OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI FROM
NEAR BARROW SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE THEN WESTWARD. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TO LIE FROM ATIGUN PASS WEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SUNDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IT...AND
THE MODELS ARE GENERATING CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
COMBINATION OF FACTORS BEGINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO ZONES 209...
210...212...216...218...219 AND ADJACENT AREAS...AND INTO ZONE 221
AND POSSIBLY 222 ON MONDAY. AS USUAL...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
DETAIL...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ZONES 220 AND NORTHERN 224 WILL ALSO LIKELY GET
A GOOD SOAKING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH PROBABLY LESS
THAN AN INCH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER COMING IN AS ABOVE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY THOUGH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DJH JUL 14



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