Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 271221
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
421 AM AKDT Thu Apr 27 2017
Models...They do continue to produce too much precipitation over
interior Alaska, so will lean on the NAM which the last couple
weeks has been doing a better job as far as coverage. For 27/00Z
runs the surface initialized well at 27/06Z against the in house
analysis. Run to run not seeing significant changes in the
solutions, and they are fairly similar into the midrange.
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging persists north of the Alaska Range
with the axis lying from Carmacks YT to Shishmaref. A weak trough
lies over the Brooks Range, and a 534 dam high is 150 nm northwest
of Point Lay, and a 525 dam low is over Unalaska this morning with
troughing south of the Bering Strait. By Friday morning the
ridging remains over the interior, the troughing over the Brooks
Range dissipate, the high over the arctic moves to 150 northeast
of Point Barrow, and the low over Unalaska weakens as it moves
over the Alaska Peninsula. And by Saturday morning, the ridging
and high are starting to slide to the north a bit, and the a
trough lies along 55N with a 511 dam low near Shemya. At 850
hpa...Temperatures relatively flat through the weekend.
Surface...A 1022 mb high lies 200 nm north of Demarcation point
with ridging extending west along 73N and will persist through
Friday then start sliding slowly to the northeast. Weak trough
lies over the state from the Alaska Range south and southwest over
the central Aleutians. A 1003 mb low over Unalaska will weaken and
be absorbed by a 965 mb low moving into the western Bering Sea
late Friday. A 1002 mb low in the Yukon Territory will persist
with weak troughing over the upper Tanana Valley.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Sheet of stratus that really
stands out on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hr Microphysics RGB product
at 26/2332Z looks like it covers most of the arctic and extends
well west into the Siberian arctic. So continues low clouds and
light snow or flurries with no significant accumulations. Some
patchy fog. Winds northeast to east 15 to 30 mph with the
strongest winds over the northwest coast. lighter winds in inland
West Coast and Western Interior...Another day just like the other
day, with lots of clouds, but breaks, and some showers of rain
and snow mainly south of the Bering Strait. Mainly rain, but
mixing or changing to snow overnight north of the Lower Yukon
Delta. A bit winds out on St Lawrence island and in the Bering
Strait, but winds ramping down a bit to north at 15 to 25 mph and
slowly coming down through tonight. Winds along the remainder of
the coast 5 to 15 mph, while inland areas with see 5 to 10 mph.
Central and Eastern Interior...Generally Cloudy, with some periods
of sunshine. A few sprinkles or showers across the area today
with heaviest showers in the Fortymile Country. Around Fairbanks
a flurry possible this morning. Winds northeast to southeast at 5
to 15 mph.
.FIRE WEATHER...Cloudy, with widely scattered showers in the
interior. Relative Humidity values above 30 percent in all areas.
Not seeing any significant wetting rains for any areas, but some
showers may be heavy enough to produce wetting rains. No
significant winds expected through the weekend.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
SDB APR 17