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FXAK67 PAJK 312330

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Lingering upper level low SW of Haida Gwaii is
continuing to send clouds and showers into the panhandle today
particularly for the southern panhandle. Though there are quite a
few more holes in the cloud cover today then there was yesterday
at this time. Especially over the northern panhandle where
temperatures have rebounded into the mid 60s this afternoon after
overnight lows got down into the low to mid 40s in some areas.
Outflow continues to blow out of the usual areas today but at a
reduced intensity. Cross Sound wind has fallen below small craft
criteria today, but Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet continue to show
winds of around 25 kt and the passes east of Yakutat shows some
gustiness as well.

Conditions will continue to improve through the night and into
tomorrow. The upper low SW of Haida Gwaii will begin to move to
the SE tonight taking a good portion of its showers with it. The
Hyder area and right along the coast mountains will likely still
see showers and clouds through tomorrow though as several weak
short waves and vorticity maxes in british columbia try to cross
the mountains. However, due to upper level flow turning more N
and then NW they don`t quite make it. The rest of the panhandle
will enjoy partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies as mostly offshore
flow keeps clouds and showers at bay though some clouds could
still linger in the inner channels.

The Strong (for this time of year) outflow across the northern
panhandle will continue to weaken as the Yukon high weakens and
the upper low moves to the SE. Northerly winds of 25 kt will
likely still linger in northern Lynn Canal into late tonight, but
like all the other outflow areas will weaken below small craft
criteria by tomorrow. Winds in other areas are expected to remain
below 20 kt through tomorrow afternoon.

Main changes to the forecast were mainly for local wind effects in
the northern inner channels. Used mainly hi-res models for
guidance for the next 24 hours to get the details of the remaining

.LONG TERM...A ridge over eastern Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska
holds place into the weekend, although the ridge top flattens to
allow energy from the large upper level low over the bering sea
to start moving across the top it Friday into Saturday. I believe
the first feature will shear apart and not impact southeast
significantly with rainfall. A trailing short wave will be more
organized and should usher in some light rain later Sunday and

Into early next week the flow pattern aloft will have shifted to a
predominately zonal flow across the Gulf of Alaska. The closed
off low that was anchored over the southern Bering Sea will be
weakened and then move across the northern gulf Tuesday to
Wednesday time frame. The operational models (GFS/EC) for the time
frame of the model runs were close. Think that this will shift
some during the successive runs but a moist flow across the gulf
likely to continue into the middle of next week.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.



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