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FXAK67 PAJK 222246
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Friday afternoon through Saturday night/...A weak
weather system will bring more rain to the southern panhandle
tonight while scattered to numerous showers continue elsewhere. As
the weak weather system moves off to the northeast tomorrow,
showers will be replaced by rain from the next front that will
arrive Saturday afternoon. This rain will encompass the entire
panhandle by early Saturday night and become heavy at times.
Storm totals from late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
morning are currently forecast to range from 0.5 inches to
slightly more than 1 inch.

No significant winds associated with the weak weather system
tonight apart from a southeasterly winds to 20 kt in Clarence
Strait. Am also seeing southerly winds to 20 kts over Lynn Canal
owing to a stiff southerly pressure gradient over the far northern
inner channels. Winds over the eastern gulf will form up out of
the southeast late tonight and increase to small craft intensity
by Saturday afternoon.

No significant changes to most aspects of the previous forecast.
Did update PoP to slow down the weak weather system tonight and
fine tune the timing of the Saturday night front. Adjustments to
QPF for similar reasons using a blend of 12Z NAM12 and a the
latest forecast from RFC. Overall forecast confidence is average,
trending above average.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Friday / Strong southwest flow from the
central pacific is moving onshore the British Columbia coast,
catching the southern part of the panhandle on the northern edge
of the stream. There should be a wave/trough moving inland late
Saturday to early Sunday for the panhandle. Another system with a
closed low will move to the Haida Gwaii area late Sunday night and
is expected to have a significant moisture pool with it and larger
rainfall totals.

For mid week a more general broad low should be lifting into the
west central Gulf of Alaska and stalling which should result in
continued troughs and weak fronts lifting onshore across the
panhandle, with there clouds and rain.

Overall a wet pattern should be expected for southeast Alaska next
week.

Models solutions at the later stages, Day 6 period and onward are
still having some consistency issues and the solutions were
wildly different so an ensemble solution was favored. We did
adjust winds towards the WPC solution in line with neighboring
office. Not many other changes were made to the long term grids.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ042-043-051-052.

&&

$$

Fritsch/Voveris

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