Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXAK67 PAJK 280039
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...APPEARS AS IF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST ENDED UP NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PROGGED IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...AND AFTER THIS EVENING WILL MOSTLY BE HEADED EAST AND
SOUTH. PRIMARY UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TO DISCONTINUE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR JUNEAU VICINITY AS OF 1:30 PM AKDT. BECAME
APPARENT THAT HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRED THIS MORNING OR EARLIER, AND CROSS-
BARRIER FLOW SLOWLY DECREASES THIS EVENING IN GENERAL ON NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. 925 MB MODEL DATA AND SURFACE MODEL DATA FROM ARW CONFIRMS
WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...OBSERVED WINDS WHERE WE
HAVE DATA SHOWED A DECREASING TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER ALL BUT SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
CORE OF THE YUKON HIGH MOVING SOUTH CURRENTLY INTO BC. HAVE
TWEAKED LOW- ELEVATIONS WINDS DOWNWARD TONIGHT BUT EVEN SO STILL
HAVE JUNEAU/DOUGLAS AREA IN STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH...MOST
NORTHERN HALF ZONES REQUIRED DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT BY 5-10 KTS
IN GRIDS. REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR Z18...CURRENTLY
APPARENT THAT WINDS/TEMPS LIKELY WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AND HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST IT. DIMINISHING WINDS AT SEA LEVEL FOR VARIOUS
ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON HAS REQUIRED TWEAKING OF TEMPERATURE FIELDS
AS LOWS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT VERY LOW FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NEAR-
CALM WINDS. UTILIZED NAM/EC FOR SOME QPF TWEAKING FOR TOMORROW
EVENING AS NEW LOW APPROACHES YAKUTAT. MARINE WINDS ARE STILL
CRANKING AS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL STILL AT 35 KT, POINT RETREAT 33 KT,
CROSS SOUND 30ISH AND FIVE FINGER AT 37KT. CLARENCE STRAIT WINDS
HAVE NOT PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY YET BUT EXPECT THAT EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE GALES GOING IN NORTHERN CHATHAM, STEPHENS, LYNN,
CROSS SOUND AND GLACIER BAY CURRENTLY. THESE WILL GO TO SCAS
STARTING AT 09-15Z EXCEPT FOR LYNN WHERE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST THAT TIME...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY BY 17-20Z OR
SO. HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!

.LONG TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARDS EASTERN
WASHINGTON THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER GULF WILL BE GIVING WAY TO A WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS
LOW WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD TO BE SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL START LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE JUNEAU AREA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. THIS LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST.

ALOFT THERE IS RIDGE BEING BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY. AT THE
MOMENT NO STRONG WINDS OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS UNDER SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND FOR THE SNOW
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-032.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

WESLEY/BEZENEK

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