Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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872
FXUS63 KAPX 270730
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

...Showers and a few thunderstorms today...

High impact weather potential: A few storms but no severe weather
anticipated.

Overview: Large/closed upper level ridge spans the mid atlantic and
SE CONUS with ridging stretching into the eastern lakes. Upper level
short wave trough (with several embedded waves) is dipping into the
northern and central plains, with a weak sfc low forming in the
Missouri/Illinois area in the vicinity of tightening baroclinic zone
stretching across the midwest. Strong moisture transport is underway
through the plains and into the midwest ahead of the main trough.
Several areas/clusters of showers of storms are congealing into the
midwest and lower lakes region, aided by upper level divergence and
QG-forcing max along the entrance region of an upper jet streak that
stretches from the upper midwest into Canada. Up this way, surface
high pressure resides across much of the Great Lakes with quiet
weather thus far, although higher level cloud cover is already
spreading up into the region and some elevated precip returns are
pushing up through northern Lake Michigan.

Today: Upper level divergence max/QG-forcing bullseye and weak-ish
surface reflection looking to swing up through the state through
the course of the day, following on the heels of the upper jet
streak bowing northward into Canada. This should drag along
upstream batch of showers and some thunderstorms up through CWA
bringing most areas some rainfall today. Have nudged up inherited
POPs into the likely- categorical range and attempted to add some
timing detail of arrival of rainfall to the forecast. Thunderstorm
potential is very marginal, particularly in the U.P., with just a
few hundred J/KG of skinny cape anticipated. Will leave it in the
forecast, but just call it a chance or slight chance. Otherwise,
with anticipated cloud cover and rainfall, have lowered forecast
max temps by several degrees.

Tonight: Upper divergence max and QG-forcing bullseye slides on by
to the northeast this evening taking main batch of rainfall out of
the CWA, while mid level dry slot punches up into northern Michigan.
Widespread precip ends for the most part. But, lots of low level
moisture/cloud cover lingers back behind and forecast soundings
suggest at least some potential for drizzle. So, will keep some
lower end pops for showers/patchy drizzle for the late evening and
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Mid level disturbance slides east of the area Sunday with deep layer
(850-500mb) drying surging into the area from the west with weak
surface high.  May have to contend with some low clouds/fog early in
the day, but that should give way to increasing amounts of sunshine
as the day progresses (outside of diurnal cu).  It may be a touch
breezy at times, with west/northwest winds of 20 knots at the top of
the mixed layer.   850mb thermal trough (+12 to +14c) swinging
through the northern lakes throughout the day, which went brought
down dry adiabatically results in high temperatures in the middle to
upper 70s.

Low amplitude ridging slides across the area Sunday night and
Monday, resulting in few sensible weather concerns.  High
temperatures a few degrees warmer on Monday as airmass gradually
warms. Surface high pressure pushes east of the area Monday night as
weak front/mid level disturbance begins to push through the upper
Midwest.  Humidity levels on the way up with increasing low level
moisture advection on the backside of departing high.  Will
introduce shower/tstm chances over west/northwest areas Monday
night, and across the remainder of the area on Tuesday as surface
front sags into the northern lakes.

Remainder of the week features building high amplitude ridging over
the center of the CONUS with northern Michigan remaining in
northwest flow with upper trough anchored east of Hudson Bay.  This
may result in several days of dry and seasonably cool conditions.
The one caveat to this is the possibility that a convective complex
could slide over the developing ridge to our west and push across
the Great Lakes (ring of fire).  Something to keep an eye on, but
right now the forecast will show little if any precipitation for the
second half of the week.  Temperatures near to possibly slightly
below normal, with northern Michigan sitting on the western edge of
850mb thermal trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Rather challenging forecast remains, especially heading through
into early this morning through today/early evening. Still just
some passing high and mid clouds for the next few ours. Changes
begin from southwest to northeast toward morning, as upstream
areas of showers makes a run into our area. Definitely not sure on
exact timing or areal extent of these showers (with even a rumble
of thunder or two possible). Will trend pessimistically, bringing
in showers and an mvfr cloud deck across the taf sites through
the morning...lasting through the day. Even some hints of ifr
producing stratus heading through the afternoon. Will wait on
introducing this idea, waiting on actual shower trends. Light and
variable winds this will trend light southeasterly Saturday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Southeast to south flow will increase today into tonight, with some
gusts pushing 20 knots. But winds/waves are expected to largely
remain below marine headline criteria. Compact area of low pressure
moves northeast through the Great Lakes later this evening and
overnight, turning winds more westerly by Sunday morning. Some
gustiness persists into Sunday, but should largely remain below
headline criteria.

Weather-wise, fairly widespread showers and some thunderstorms will
pass through the region today, diminishing tonight.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Keysor
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...Adam



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