Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1148 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Issued at 1006 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Low amplitude troughing is working across the northern Great
Lakes region this evening...with an upper jet core punching across
Ontario and dipping into the eastern lakes. Associated jet
induced high cloud cover continues to slide through mainly the
northern part of the state although not really noticeable to the
casual observer given the nearly new moon/dark skies out there.

Rest of tonight...mainly clear skies anticipated save for that
high level cloud cover passing through at times. Surface winds
have diminished in many areas...temps are cooling and there is a
touch of shallow fog rearing it`s head in spots (PLN briefly
dipped to under 2SM this past hour). Don`t think fog will become a
big issue...but I will add patchy fog to some areas in the CWA.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Breezy and warmer on Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Great Lakes remain locked between strong
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and strong low pressure
centered over James Bay. Tight low level pressure gradient between
the two is producing gusty SW winds across Michigan. Temps have
warmed into the 60s as expected thanks to strengthening low level
WAA. Only some scattered cirrus is drifting over our CWA attm.

Upstream surface ridge axis will slide over our CWA this evening...
pushing east of our area overnight. Further strengthening of low
level flow and WAA on the backside of the surface ridge axis will
increase wind speeds on Wednesday as well as boost temps into the
mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. Otherwise...dry wx and mainly
clear skies will continue thru Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Remaining on the mild side...

A moisture starved cold front will move through northern Michigan
late Wednesday night. This front will do little except for to limit
high temperatures to the upper 50s to middle 60s Thursday, which is
a few degrees cooler than Wednesday but also still a few degrees
above average for the third week of October. One thing to watch
though is the possible formation of over lake instability induced
clouds late Wednesday night into early Thursday (it`s a close call
on this one). Ridging at the surface and aloft then builds in during
the day Thursday into Friday. This will lead to warmer temperatures
once again Friday with highs ranging from the middle 60s north to
the lower 70s south. Winds will remain in the breezy category due to
a respectable surface pressure gradient. This wind should keep lows
at night in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure will remain over the region through the first part of
the weekend, before an approaching cold front moves into the region
possibly as early as Sunday. This will bring the next shot of
precipitation, with a clipper system set to move in quickly behind
the front. This clipper will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air,
increasing the amplitude of troughing from the Great Lakes
eastward. This will usher in the first real cold airmass of the
season towards the middle of next week. May see snow sneaking into
the extended with tomorrow`s issuance.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

With high pressure nearly across the Ohio Valley...solid VFR
conditions continue across northern Michigan through the day on
Wednesday. Only caveat...some shallow fog has materialized across
northern lower Michigan this evening and will briefly impact
PLN/APN over the next few hours. Surface winds will begin to ramp
back up later overnight and particularly on Wednesday. This will
lead to another period of LLWS conditions at the terminal sites
toward Wednesday morning...and decent gustiness through the day
Wednesday with some gusts possibly pushing 30 knots.

Weak-ish cold front will slide through the region Wednesday night
and may bring a brief period of lower (marginal MVFR CIGS) cloud
cover to the region.


Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria tonight into
early Wednesday as low level pressure gradient remains rather tight
between high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and low pressure
centered over James Bay. Conditions may reach gale warning criteria
across our Lake Michigan nearshore areas by midday Wednesday as the
low level gradient further tightens on the backside of a departing
ridge axis. Overall dry wx is expected to continue for all of our
nearshore areas thru the workweek.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     GALE WARNING from noon Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321.


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