Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 230254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED HEAVY RAIN WITH MCCALL
AIRPORT RECEIVING 0.65 INCHES AS OF 8 PM. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY LED TO
SPOTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH FAR WESTERN VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES. AS OF 845 PM LIGHTNING SHOWED STORMS CROSSING THE SNAKE
RIVER FROM WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY TOWARDS THE WALLOWAS. OTHER STORMS
HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED...INCLUDING CENTERVILLE... YELLOWPINE
AND SW TWIN FALLS. AS OF 845 PM THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY NEAR OWYHEE DAM WHERE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WERE LIKELY OCCURRING. STORMS WERE ALSO ACROSS...FAR
SW OWYHEE COUNTY NEAR DUCK VALLEY AND NW OF FAIRFIELD. STORM
MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SW AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
SO FAR NO DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE NWS BUT HAVE
SENT OUT LSRBOI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT
AND REFORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 06Z...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 25 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ON SATURDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL/WH



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