Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 010232
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
832 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS A FURTHER
WEST INTO THE WESTERN TREASURE VALLEY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF KMYL AND
IDAHO CITY...THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI...AND SOUTH
INTO NEVADA...ENDING BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
EXCEPT 20-30 KTS KBOI-KONO...DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 04Z.
WINDS ALOFT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE BRUNEAU AND JARBIDGE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
IN OWYHEE COUNTY WITH SOME SMALLER TRIBUTARIES LIKELY RUNNING
BANKFULL. DIURNAL PEAKS FOR THE EAST FORK OF THE JARBIDGE RIVER
AND THE EAST FORK OF THE BRUNEAU RIVER TRENDED UP AGAIN COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST FORECAST FOR THE BRUNEAU RIVER AT
HOT SPRINGS CRESTS WITHIN ONE FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE MAINSTEM OF THE BRUNEAU...BUT A GOOD
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE UPPER BASIN AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
STREAMFLOWS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN VALLEY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN TURN TO EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MORNING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONTANA AND FLOW ALOFT ALSO
BECOMES EASTERLY.  EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY.  THESE WINDS WILL ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING SUNDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BACK TO TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
THIS EVENING WILL END FROM NE TO SW OVERNIGHT.  MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIKE LAST NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 3 DEGS HIGHER THAN TODAY.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING AND
MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 4 DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT OVER THE PACIFIC
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THEY DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AT THIS TIME TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...
BUT COULD SEE PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD EAST BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
BUT WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE IT
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH BUT SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
INTO THE REGION. POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. INSTABILITY MAY
TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL IN
PLACE EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JT
HYDROLOGY....TL/LC
PREV SHORT TERM...LC PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC



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