Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 231021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
321 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...A weak upper ridge with
areas of clear skies and light winds resulted in patchy fog in
some locations this morning, including the Lower Treasure Valley
near Ontario and the Long Valley near McCall. The fog will lift by
late morning or early afternoon. Moisture along a warm front will
bring increasing clouds and light precipitation to northern areas
(mainly from Baker County to the West Central Idaho mountains) this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the next
Pacific system tonight through Wednesday. Moisture in the flow
will bring more light precipitation mainly to the far northern
areas. Snow levels will range from 2500-4000 feet. Winds will
increase ahead of the system, becoming breezy to locally windy on
Wednesday. Warming will also occur, with valley highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...An active weather
pattern continues through the extended period as a series of
storms move into the Pacific Northwest. Extended models are in
good agreement at least into mid day on Friday. During this time
period, a cold front pushes into Eastern Oregon late Wednesday and
into the Idaho zones Thursday morning. Snow level will finally
reach the lower elevations bringing a few inches of snow in the
mountains and a light dusting across the lower valleys. The main
upper low swings into southern Canada Friday morning.

Models differ early in the weekend with the next potent storm
system. The GFS is more bullish and shows a faster timing of
precipitation compared to the EMC which develops a slight upper
ridge around 130W. This eventually pushes the precip further north
potentially keeping areas south of Burns and Boise more on the
dry side. In either case, snow level start at the valley floors
Saturday then increase by Sunday. Yet another storm may affect the
region early next week.


.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions prevailing this morning with
areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds and fog possible
across KBKE and KMYL along with areas north of KJER. Sfc winds
generally southeast to southwest 5 to 10 kts through sunrise,
increasing 10 to 20 kts by late morning through late afternoon.
Winds around 10kft southwest 10 to 20 kts through the afternoon.





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