Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 230239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
THROUGH EASTERN HARNEY AND NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES EARLIER IN
THE EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY. OVERALL...THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT AS THE
SHORTWAVE IN CALIFORNIA LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE THREAT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT STORMS MAY
STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING DIMINISHING AFTER 10Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 12 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 45KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING
SW 10-20KT AFTER 21Z WED EXCEPT VARIABLE 10KT IN MAGIC VALLEY AND
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT SW 25-35KT UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NNE AT AROUND 40 MPH AND
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A
VORT MAX SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH MOVE NNE INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING FOR A WHILE AFTER SUNSET IN EASTERN OREGON AND IN
WESTERN IDAHO NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
BAKER CITY IN OREGON AND NEAR MCCALL IN IDAHO...OTHERWISE DRY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
EXPECT DRY BREEZY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW STILL
ON TRACK TO SET UP OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY LATEST MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ400-401-420-423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JB
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB


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