Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 300303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND MILD NIGHT WITH SOME MID-CLOUD TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. MONDAY IS THE LAST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT
OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 10-20KT BECOMING SW 15-25KT
BY 18Z/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD/NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT...BOIPNSBOI...FOR A LIST OF CITIES WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE 15-25 DEGREES LOWER IN SE OREGON AND 10-15 DEGREES LOWER IN SW
IDAHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS ALL OF SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL EXPECTING AN
ACTIVE MID-LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS...AND REINFORCE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FIRST
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN KEEP
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY.
NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED IN MODELS QUITE WELL...BUT SOME
DETAILS AND EXACT TIMING ARE WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL/SW FLOW AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE BC
AND PACNW COASTS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EAST AND WET WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A LARGER SYSTEM NEAR DAYS 6/7.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



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