Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 290215
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER IN MALHEUR AND SOUTHWEST OWYHEE COUNTIES.
THESE ARE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN CA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITHOUT THE THERMAL COMPONENT. NO CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT FROM
NORTHERN CA AND SW OREGON FIRES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN
THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW


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