Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 302312
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF
RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER
OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION
SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO
STRUGGLE.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A
BIT MORE.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN
A WEAKENED FORM.  OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z.  OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK


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