Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 011058
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH
PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY.  SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  WERE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT***

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE
IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG


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