Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN


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