Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 071131
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW
OVER MEXICO WILL INTERACT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA BY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGER
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM MFE WESTWARD WHILE SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH CU
DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET. OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS
LOWER TO AROUND 15 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
500 MB HEIGHT SHOWS BROAD BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST
EXTENDING ACROSS SE PLAINS WHILE PACIFIC HIGH DOMINATES ACROSS
MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS S TEXAS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZE TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE KEEPING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LATEST KBRO 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.9 IN
WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AROUND 950 MB. NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR BKN TO
SCT CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING REMAIN
IN THE WARMER SIDE REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80S WITH NO CHANCE OF
RAIN. TODAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWER TO 1.7 INCHES WITH DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE CWA. NEAR THE SURFACE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT SE FLOW
BETWEEN 18 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASING FROM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH A DEGREE WARMER.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...850 MB HEIGHT SHOWS BROAD HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. AN REGION OF MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SURGES NORTHWARD INTO
THE CWA WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE
UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...AS DAYTIME MIXING
BEGINS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF BREEZE TO WINDY SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WED
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108 BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A WEAKNESS IN THE
500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY DIMINISHES THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BUILDS
WESTWARD. VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE 500MB RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LOW WITH MAINLY A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WITH CLOSER TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE AS THE SE FETCH
PLUS SE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO
BUILD. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND SCA OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AS SE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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