Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 270534 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR TAFS next 24 hours. H5 ridge to the
west will support stability today, however, patchy mid valley fog
and low clouds will be possible before dawn, supporting low
certainty and brief MVFR conditions at MFE. Light northeast winds
today. Though not necessarily resulting in downgraded conditions,
increased convective activity over the west and southwest Gulf
Thursday night may bring enhanced cloudiness and coastal showers
into the area Friday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Light east winds with a few low clouds prevail across
Deep South Texas this evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue
for the next 24 hours as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico
and the southwest United States provides subsidence across the
region. However, some brief MVFR visibilities are possible at MFE
around sunrise due to some patchy fog.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):
500mb ridge across northern Mexico into the southwest United
States will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA tonight
into Thursday. A 500mb inverted trough/low is expected to move
into the Bay of Campeche and the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday
into Thurs night. Moisture will increase across the western Gulf
of Mexico as a result. This will provide a slight chance of
showers...mainly across the coastal waters Thursday and Thurs

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Pattern shift begins
starting Friday as the H5 ridge bubbles north and eastward into
the central U.S., while the inverted trough/tropical wave across
the western Caribbean shifting westward into the southern Gulf.
Models continue to show moisture returning aloft over the weekend,
finally breaking down the capping inversion that has been holding
firm across the region the past week. Slight chance for showers
starts later Friday, but likely does not begin in earnest until
the inverted trough gets closer on Saturday. Have raised rain
chances all three days, focusing on daytime heating hours. Area
will still see a good amount of daytime heating, so highs in the
upper 80s are expected well into next week. The H5 ridge begins to
build back into the region on Monday, beginning to abate the
moisture aloft. Rain chances Monday will depend highly on where
the inversion finally reestablishes. Most rain that does develop
Monday will diminish by sunset, leaving a good evening for
Halloween festivities.

Tonight through Thursday night: Seas were near 3 feet with east
to southeast winds near 6 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight
with surface high pressure across the southeast United States and
weak low pressure across northwest Texas. The pressure gradient
will remain weak across the lower TX coast Thursday but winds will
shift to the northeast Thursday as weak high pressure builds
across the northern Gulf coast and broad low pressure develops
across the Bay of Campeche. Light to moderate northeast winds will
prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday but will veer
to the east Thurs night.




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