Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY DETECTED SOME ISOLATED CONV THAT FIRED UP
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT OR IS LINGERING SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER
NE MEXICO. A POCKET OF 500 MB VORTICITY WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST ATMS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A
PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MORNING MUCAPE VALUE WAS ONLY
1449 J/KG. THE MORE LIMITED MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
REASON THAT THE AFTERNOON CONV WAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE
BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE AREA OF 500 MB VORTICITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONV THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. THE MET AND MAV
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE WITH BOTH MODEL
SETS MAINTAINING SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT SHOWING ONLY SOME 5 TO 10 % POPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. SINCE THE MAV AND MET POPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THESE TWO MODEL SETS FOR
THE SHORT TERM TEMPS AS THE DRIER ECMWF GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN ALOFT...SO THAT COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD MAKE RAIN SCARCE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW WINDS AND SEAS. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN ON MON AND MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS
WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT POSSIBLE RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL SCEC CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE LAGUNA. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL
BUILD TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78  98 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 101 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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