Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 222325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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