Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 292046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
RELEVANT FEATURES...
PRONOUNCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SLOWLY AMPLIFYING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM 900MB AND UP WITH
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DRIVEN BY NORTHEAST FLORIDA CENTERED HIGH
PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY
REACHING CLOSE TO THE FALFURRIAS/HEBBRONVILLE AREA BY DAYBREAK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN THIS EVENING AND
THAT MAY WORK TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT
DENSE/WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION BUT DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO BOTH ADVANCING COOL AIR AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED HOWEVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND AMOUNTS LIKELY EVEN LOWER EVEN
WHERE RAIN OCCURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE LOW ENOUGH AND WIND SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION. VERY MODEST WARM AIR ASCENT MAY SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THERE. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM MODELS
SEEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...WHEN SOME
DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE ECMWF KICKS AN EJECTING LOW LATITUDE CUTOFF
LOW THROUGH THE AREA MORE QUICKLY...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS...WHICH DELAYS PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER FEATURE ANOTHER 12 HOURS...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER A
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY/RECOVER...BUT WON`T REACH NORMAL TERRITORY AGAIN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

MEANTIME...OLD MAN WINTER IS BEING SLOW TO LOOSEN HIS GRIP AS AN
ARCTIC SOURCE AIR MASS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL TURN INTO
A STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ON MONDAY...WITH ROBUST CHANCES
OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN MONDAY THROUGH PART OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF NORTHERN AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND A WEAK REVERSAL OF
SLIGHTLY INCREASING HIGH TEMPS FOR A DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... VERY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT NEAR PADRE ISLAND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD.
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD SATURDAY
MORNING WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
DECREASING SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OFFSHORE WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL START OUT AT 4 TO 5 FEET...AND WILL LOWER TO 3 FEET
ON SUNDAY. THE INFLUX OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL BUILD SEAS MONDAY RESULTING IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  68  60  71 /   0  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          58  71  60  73 /   0  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            57  70  59  74 /   0  20  10  20
MCALLEN              58  69  59  75 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  70  59  75 /  10  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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