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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200327
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
927 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Reduced coverage of thunderstorms. Cumulus as struggled to develop
any further as it drifts through the region. Airmass is pretty dry
and despite shortwave approaching have not observed any impact on
vertical ascent and HRRR guidance has been downward trending all
evening. Update sent. dlb

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Weak front pushing south through the area today has brought
northwest to north winds and occasional gusts around 25 mph.
Despite areas of smoke/haze from wildfires across western Montana
and the Pac NW and middle to high level clouds overhead,
temperatures have climbed into the 80s to near 90 degrees in some
places this afternoon. Winds will turn more northeasterly through
the remainder of the afternoon and evening, helping to push some
of the smoke out of the area and improve air quality. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms become possible over the southwest
mountains later this afternoon, potentially moving out onto the
plains into the evening as a weak disturbance moves through the
region and upslope flow develops near the surface. Better chances
for showers and thunderstorms exist this evening and overnight
across southeast Montana.

Zonal flow will persist through Sunday with southeasterly flow
developing at the surface. Moisture and instability will advect
into eastern areas through the day with thunderstorm chances
increasing across the far east late in the day and into the
evening as another disturbance and associated front approaches
from the west. Nocturnal convection looks possible, with some of
the storms being potentially strong during the evening and
overnight as a low level jet develops out ahead of the
aforementioned front. Winds will turn northerly behind the front
Monday morning as a trof remains over the area through the first
part of the day, before ridging begins to build in from the west.
As far as viewing for the Eclipse in southern Montana and
northern Wyoming, models continue to indicate middle to high level
clouds over much of the area through most of the morning,
potentially moving off to the east after midday. A lot of
uncertainty remains in the cloud forecast to say the least.

High temperatures will generally be in the 80s for most of the
lower elevations Sunday and Monday. STP


.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Following Mondays weak cold front, upper ridge builds into the
area for Tuesday through Thursday for quiet weather. By late
Thursday some monsoonal moisture will begin to work into the
southern mountains for an isolated thunderstorm or two in the
afternoon/evening. Upper trof pushes into the Pacific Northwest
and into our area Friday for a better chance of thunderstorms as
an associated cold front/wind shift moves through. Bulk of this
system remains north of the area so continue with low pops at this
time. However there is a bit of a Gulf moisture tap that could
bring a bit better chance of rain to areas east of Billings Friday
night into early Saturday if the pattern holds. Dry northerly
flow builds over the rest of the area for Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures look warmest Tuesday into Wednesday with highs
possibly pushing the lower 90s. With cloud cover increasing and
the late week front temperatures slide down toward more seasonal
levels in the low to mid 80s Thursday into the weekend. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail tonight. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible tonight along and south of a Livingston
to Billings to Ekalaka line, with local MVFR conditions possible.

Smoke Forecast...Winds are expected to shift to the northeast
this evening, dispersing smoke to the south of the area and
improving visibility over time. Until then will continue to see
areas of smoke across the area, occasionally reducing visibility
locally to around 5sm west of Rosebud county, including KBIL,
KLVM, and KSHR taf sites. The poorest visibility will be in and
near area foothills. Slant range visibility could be lower than
5sm at times. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/084 059/083 055/088 057/092 059/088 057/082 056/083
    10/U    10/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T    20/U
LVM 051/082 049/084 047/089 049/091 054/085 050/080 048/083
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    20/U
HDN 059/087 056/086 053/091 056/095 058/091 057/085 055/085
    10/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    20/U
MLS 059/085 059/085 055/088 058/092 060/092 059/086 056/086
    11/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    11/U
4BQ 058/086 057/085 053/087 055/090 057/090 057/086 054/086
    32/T    21/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    21/U
BHK 056/081 055/082 050/082 054/086 056/086 055/084 054/083
    22/T    31/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    32/T
SHR 055/085 053/083 051/087 051/090 053/087 052/083 050/083
    10/U    11/B    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings