Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 301845
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1245 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Front has begun to move through south central Montana this
afternoon. Satellite clearing line already evident between Big
Timber and Columbus. Rain pushes out onto the Plains before
upslope increases tonight over the foothills.  Weak synoptic
ascent will be provided by northern portion of a split trof as it
moves across the northern Rockies tonight and Friday, but bulk of
precip will be along our north aspects. Precip will taper off
from west to east Friday night as northern PV shifts east and
subsidence spread in from the west, with the upper low well to our
south.

Winter Storm Warning continues for the mountain areas through
Friday night with 10 inches or more still expected. Rain snow mix
will extend down through Red Lodge and Story by Friday morning.
Fog possible in the early morning hours over the central Plains
given the low-level moisture that will be hanging around.

Cool cloudy conditions will continue through Friday with a warming
and clearing trend into the weekend. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

No major changes this afternoon for the extended period. Clipper
wave drops through the area Sunday for a chance of showers mainly
west. A stronger trof drops in from the northwest for Monday into
Tuesday. GFS and its ensembles trending drier, faster and more
open with this system with the 12z run, and ECMWF trended drier as
well. Interestingly the CIPS analogs went the other way showing a
decent precipitation event. Pretty big model jump for one run so
will hold pops fairly consistent to previous forecast and see if
this drying trend sticks through the next few runs.

Looks like a few days of dry conditions for Wednesday into Friday
with zonal westerly flow producing dry lee side troffing east of
the divide. Will continue to see intermittent mountain snow
showers though with this pattern. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect a break in precipitation over the western half of the
forecast area this afternoon into the evening hours, with ceilings
improving as well. Some areas west of Billings may scatter out for
a time. Will continue to see scattered showers spread eastward
into southeast Montana this afternoon into mid evening with
occasional MVFR conditions. Winds will turn northeast and then
easterly overnight which will produce lowering ceilings after
midnight along with increased upslope precipitation in the
foothills, especially along the Bighorn front. Combined with
increasing fog potential expect more widespread IFR or lower
flight conditions overnight into the mid morning hours Friday.
Snow levels will drop to around 5000 feet overnight. Mountain
obscuration will persist into tomorrow. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/047 036/061 043/062 040/049 033/051 032/057 037/061
    57/W    41/U    11/B    25/R    63/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 034/047 031/059 036/058 032/046 027/050 029/054 035/060
    78/W    40/U    22/W    35/O    42/J    11/B    11/B
HDN 044/050 035/062 040/064 037/051 031/052 030/058 033/063
    67/W    51/B    11/B    25/R    74/W    11/B    11/B
MLS 044/057 039/062 043/063 038/055 035/052 032/058 035/064
    66/W    51/B    11/B    25/R    64/W    11/U    01/B
4BQ 040/055 038/059 040/061 036/052 033/047 030/054 032/059
    65/W    41/B    11/B    25/R    65/W    21/B    01/B
BHK 038/057 036/060 039/060 034/055 032/048 029/054 030/058
    53/W    31/B    11/B    14/R    65/W    31/U    10/B
SHR 039/047 033/056 035/058 034/047 031/046 027/053 031/060
    89/W    81/B    12/W    36/O    65/W    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight MDT Friday
      night FOR ZONE 67.
WY...Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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