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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 110050
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
550 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
WINDS WERE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN THE W AND NW ZONES THIS
EVENING SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS. RAISED POPS IN KSHR WHERE IT HAS
BEEN STEADILY SNOWING AND SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
ARTHUR
&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

QUITE A BIT OF WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...

WILL START WITH THE CANCELLATION OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
AREAS IN AND AROUND LIVINGSTON AND NYE. WINDS WERE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE LIVINGSTON
ASOS...CAUSING DANGEROUS WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG STATE AND LOCAL
HIGHWAYS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE WINDS HAD DECREASED TO A POINT
WHERE VISIBILITIES HAD INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SO...OUT WITH THE
OLD PRODUCT...AND IN WITH A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE SAME AREAS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ISALLOBARIC WIND
FIELDS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 MB AT TIMES...FROM IDAHO FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THIS PATTERN. THINKING OF IMPACTS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE FOREFRONT FOR TRAVELERS.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
HAS SLOWLY WORKED ITS WAY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM
NORTHERN ROSEBUD INTO SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. THIS BAND HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DUMPING 1 TO 2 QUICK INCHES
OF FRESH SNOWFALL OVER LOCATIONS LIKE HYSHAM...HARDIN...AND
BILLINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND TO
IMPACT TRAVEL ON HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN BILLINGS AND RED LODGE. MOST
OF THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS FAVORED AN UPSLOPE TYPE PATTERN. THAT
IS WHERE MOST OF OUR SNOWFALL IS COMING FROM AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE SUN SHOULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE ON WEDNESDAY...AND HELP IN
MELTING OFF SOME OF THE ICIER ROADS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A
WELCOME SITE...THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH SAFER TRAVEL. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN...THEN DIVERGE
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW
FROM TIME TO TIME...AND AT LEAST ONE SURGE OF COLDER AIR EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THIS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...WILL HELP KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY W TO SW WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER SOUTH TOWARDS NYE.

THE BEST PUSH OF COLD AIR APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT IN THE FORM OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT SLIPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS APPEAR TO BE WITH THE FRONT
FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT...THEN AGAIN SUN AS A RESULT OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE EAST SAT. STC

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GENERATE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KLVM REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS THERE
WILL WEAKEN A BIT EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...SO SW GUSTS OVER 45 KTS MAY AGAIN GENERATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW.

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE KBIL AND KSHR REGIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF LIFR. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END IN THOSE REGIONS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...SO CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT KMLS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THERE INTO
WEDNESDAY. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 005/029 022/037 018/033 015/032 022/037 022/033 017/032
    61/N    11/N    12/J    21/E    11/B    12/J    11/B
LVM 007/030 022/040 021/037 019/035 022/035 021/032 020/031
    41/N    11/N    22/W    12/J    11/N    21/N    11/B
HDN 901/028 016/038 015/034 012/029 017/035 020/034 016/031
    61/B    11/B    12/J    22/J    12/J    12/J    21/B
MLS 907/024 012/035 013/025 010/019 012/031 020/033 014/026
    20/B    01/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    12/J    11/B
4BQ 903/026 013/036 017/030 012/024 015/032 020/033 015/027
    30/B    00/B    02/J    22/J    22/J    02/J    11/B
BHK 911/022 011/032 012/021 010/016 008/026 018/030 014/023
    20/B    00/B    13/J    21/E    33/J    12/J    11/B
SHR 901/030 016/041 016/033 014/033 017/036 020/034 016/031
    61/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    11/B    22/J    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>33-35>38-57-58-64.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS