Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 280927
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
327 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...
Weak frontal boundary across the region currently generating a
few spotty showers over the Beartooths through northeastern
Montana. This front is aiding gap winds through Livingston with
some 50 mph gusts which have finally begun to weaken this morning.
As this front slides southward through the morning a few isolated
showers will develop from the Beartooths through Billings and eastward
to Miles City during the day. Upper-level impulse moves closer by
late afternoon. Upper impulse interacts with stalled surface
boundary and produces widespread shower activity which spreads
across the region from southwest to northeast during the early
evening hours on Friday.
Fringe of the rain shield appears to set-up somewhere near the
Billings area through the night so not completely sold on some of
the higher rainfall totals that have been advertised by ECMWF. Will
keep values between 0.25-0.50 inches through Saturday. This value
is much closer to the SREF means, NAM, and ARW models.
Rain will change over to snow generally above 8500 feet Friday
evening. Adjusted snowfall amounts up slightly over the Bighorns
to the 4-6 inch range. QPF amounts could support values above
that, but given the tropical nature of the system have kept snow
ratios and totals lower and more in line with HPC`s forecast.
Colder air makes it`s way into the Beartooths a little earlier on
Friday night which will increase totals to 6 to 10 inches along
the highest peaks.
Colder air filters in on Saturday morning and a dusting or
rain/snow mix is possible along the foothills and areas from
Harlowton to Columbus. Anticipating highs to only reach the low
50s on Saturday. Walsh
.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...
Overall, southwest flow will prevail over the area with several
shortwaves shifting through. The first shortwave is expected
Sunday night into Monday with the second wave Tuesday into Tuesday
night. The first system does appear to the be the strongest of the
two and gives the best chance of moisture. Both systems will
provide a quick shot of accumulating snow in the high country.
Lower elevations should be warm enough to pick up rainfall with
temperatures remaining above seasonal averages. Raised PoPs for
Sunday night and Monday over the west with the first piece of
energy sliding in. Model disagreement increases from Wednesday and
beyond and did not make many changes to these periods because of
LLWS will be in play early this morning over southeast Montana
and this will impact KMLS, KBHK and K4BQ. Gusty southwest winds at
KLVM will decrease this morning as a cold front works through.
Clouds will increase and gradually lower this afternoon as a
system approaches from the southwest. Shower chances increase from
KLVM to KBIL to KSHR late this afternoon, spreading over the
entire area this evening. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
evening as rain spreads over southern Montana and northern
Wyoming. Mountains will become obscured this afternoon and remain
obscured tonight. TWH
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
BIL 061 041/052 041/064 044/057 038/056 036/058 038/060
4/W 72/W 12/W 55/W 11/B 01/U 00/B
LVM 059 038/053 042/061 041/055 036/055 034/057 037/059
5/W 72/W 24/W 66/W 11/B 11/U 10/B
HDN 063 040/054 037/066 042/059 036/059 033/060 034/061
4/W 73/W 11/B 44/W 11/B 01/U 00/U
MLS 062 039/051 039/064 044/055 036/058 034/058 034/060
2/W 32/W 11/B 44/W 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 067 040/052 039/068 044/059 035/059 033/061 035/064
2/W 85/W 11/U 44/W 11/B 00/B 01/U
BHK 062 036/048 035/060 041/053 033/057 032/058 032/060
1/B 32/W 00/B 44/W 11/U 00/B 01/U
SHR 065 038/052 036/065 039/058 032/058 029/060 032/062
4/W 85/W 01/B 44/W 10/B 10/B 01/B