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239
FXUS65 KBYZ 252052
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
252 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

The short term is dominated by a ridge over the western US. This
will result in temperatures warming through Tuesday. With the
moisture over the past few days, tonight some patchy fog may
develop in some the valleys in Custer/Powder River counties and
east towards the Dakotas. Temperatures tomorrow will be into the
mid 70s. Aided by some prefrontal warming, temperatures will be in
the mid 80s. Through the whole period, things will remain sunny
and light winds. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Above normal temps in store for the latter half of the week as the
Rocky Mountains and high plains will remain under the influence of
above normal heights, as upper trof settles off the BC/WA coast in
what is a rather blocked up pattern. High temps will generally be
in the 70s to near 80 degrees Wed-Sat. After a dry Wednesday, we
will see influences from southerly monsoonal flow and precipitable
waters will be 1-2 standard deviations above normal through
Saturday. Initial area of PV from the southwest will lift thru our
cwa Thursday and Thursday night. Additional shortwave energy in
southwest flow is expected especially across our west Friday and
Saturday. Will keep some low pops to cover this potential each of
these days. Will also keep slight mention of thunder per the pwats
and lifted indices near zero, though TS is becoming increasingly
abnormal as we approach early October.

Greater potential for showers will emerge by Saturday night and
Sunday as Pacific trof begins to move inland and could bring
stronger ascent, at least for our west. Sunday should also bring
the beginning of a cooling trend, though must stress that all
models have trended warmer in the Friday-Sunday time frame, with a
slower progression of the Pacific trof. Given a cutoff low
somewhere near the Great Lakes or East Coast, a slower progression
seems to be the correct trend. Have adjusted temps up a few
degrees these days.

JKL


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Monday as high
pressure aloft builds in from the west. NW wind gusts of 20-30 kts
will impact eastern areas from KMLS-KBHK through sunset this
evening. Patchy valley fog is possible in eastern areas late
tonight, including near KMLS and KBHK.

JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/076 052/083 052/071 050/075 052/076 053/073 047/063
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
LVM 043/077 047/081 047/072 046/077 048/075 049/070 043/061
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 045/075 048/084 050/076 049/076 050/077 050/074 047/065
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
MLS 045/074 049/083 053/076 053/078 053/076 053/075 051/067
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 043/074 048/083 051/079 053/078 052/076 053/076 051/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 041/070 046/080 050/075 050/076 051/074 050/072 049/067
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
SHR 043/072 047/080 048/078 049/077 048/077 048/075 047/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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