Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 251022
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
322 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

No major changes in the short term. Winds are starting to increase
along the foothills, but the strongest winds are yet to come. The
peak in the winds speeds is still late this afternoon into the
early evening. As the next shortwave moves through overnight
tonight, expect winds to fairly quickly decrease. With this next
system, have increased PoPs a little on the plains as far east as
Billings. The GFS and CMC do have a little QPF extending off the
foothills, but it does not look like it will not amount to much.
The better precip still is in the mountains and the foothills.
The frontogenesis does hangup along the terrain Monday afternoon,
so there could a quick couple of inches at locations like Red
Lodge. Accumulations do not look to be much more than this as the
snowfall generation will not be especially efficient. The winds
never really turn upslope, and temperatures are not going to be as
cold. Snow should move out late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

West northwest flow aloft on Tuesday with leeside troughing will
break down a bit on Wednesday as an upper level front crosses
Montana and Wyoming. Little airmass change with this feature and
low levels are fairly dry so do not expect much precipitation
with a few mountain showers. Temperature will be driven by a
snowcover impacts and timing of clouds and mixing so Tuesday and
Wednesday temperatures look similar.

Thursday establishes a more prevalent southwest flow aloft and
leeside troughing is deeper to warm temperatures over the plains.
Mountains begin to see an onset of steady precipitation as
moisture is pushed into the region by a deep low moving into the
PacNW.

Friday and weekend forecast a bit trickier as this system moves
into the region and is projected to stall somewhat. This pattern
will bring some snow to the region but it looks to favor northern
and far eastern Montana at this time but these details are not in
agreement between the GFS and the ECMWF. Definitely will be cooler
with a less favorable environment for mixing and increased clouds
but does not look like arctic air will be a huge factor but
temperatures slipping back into the 20s looks possible. borsum

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated light showers will move through the area this morning
with no reductions to visibility or ceilings expected for the
terminal sites. Mountain obscurations possible. Increasing winds
along the foothills through the day becoming strong this evening.
This could produce areas of blowing snow from Big Timber to
Livingston. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 021/033 011/035 015/036 016/036 017/035 019/035
    0/N 14/J    20/U    11/B    11/B    12/J    12/J
LVM 033 024/030 008/033 016/036 019/040 022/040 023/038
    2/J 46/J    20/N    22/J    11/N    12/W    22/W
HDN 034 016/033 007/034 013/033 012/034 014/034 016/033
    1/N 12/J    10/U    11/B    01/B    11/B    12/J
MLS 031 017/032 008/029 010/030 008/029 013/030 014/029
    0/U 11/B    00/U    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/J
4BQ 031 016/033 009/031 010/032 009/032 016/035 016/035
    0/B 01/B    10/U    11/B    10/B    11/B    12/J
BHK 029 017/032 008/030 009/029 009/029 013/031 015/030
    0/B 00/B    00/U    11/B    10/B    11/N    12/J
SHR 033 017/033 010/032 009/034 010/036 015/039 018/038
    1/B 13/J    41/U    11/B    01/B    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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