Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 241936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/APPROACH THE REGION AND WILL
SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE/THICKNESS...WITH POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST AND HEADING OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EARLY WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S AFTER
SUNSET/THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...FEATURING A RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S AT THE CHILLIEST INLAND LOCALES TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TO START...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCLUDING AN EARLY...WEAK/LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR






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