Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 251438
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. DRIER
AIR AND MORE STABLE/CAPPED MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER FOR THE MOST PART AND THUS ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD
ALLENDALE SOUTH CAROLINA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TODAY
WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN
NO WARMER THAN AROUND 80.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF AREAS OF LAYERED
CLOUDS AROUND AND QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO POP UP INLAND.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER CAPPING TO SUPPORT 20-30 POPS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FARTHER INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KSAV AND COULD LINGER MOST OF
THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE 09Z SREF GUIDANCE...POSSIBLY ALSO GETTING
INTO KCHS. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS COULD ALSO IMPACT THE
TERMS LATER TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW/FETCH...ALTHOUGH THE
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. ONSHORE E TO ESE FLOW
WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE DECREASING TO 3-5 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS MORNING.

BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW AT OR BELOW 15 KT AND
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK ALL BEACHES TODAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD LINGER ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



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