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000
FXUS62 KCHS 220846
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
446 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will extend west into the southeast coast
through this weekend while a surface trough remains inland. A weak
cold front will approach the area during the middle of next week.
Low pressure should then develop over the area and linger through
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pre-dawn: Dry and clear conditions across the forecast area in GA
and southern SC early this morning. There may be a bit of patchy fog
across far inland southeast GA where temps have been running cooler
in the lower 70s but it does not look significant enough for any
grid/forecast inclusions.

Today: A broad mid level weakness will extend along the lower Gulf
coast to Northern Florida while deep subtropical ridges remain
anchored over the Atlantic and from the Carolinas west into the
southern Plains. Sunny skies early on, will result in temps
rising into the lower 90s by early afternoon. Across southeast
and coastal SC, we think substantial upper ridging and very dry
air between 500 MB and 250 MB should be enough to keep diurnal
convection isolated at best and across several zones including
Charleston, we decided on silent POPs today even though a spotty
and brief shower/tstm is certainly possible.

Over south GA, a weak mid level vort is noted close to the Florida
state line and moisture is certainly deeper not far to the south
of our forecast area. Many models suggest an active Gulf Coast
sea breeze this afternoon and 700 MB flow turns southwest with
time. Some of this late day convection to the south of the
Altamaha could send out some late day mesoscale boundaries that
bisect the far south GA sea breeze. This may result in isolated
to locally scattered showers and storms close to the Altamaha
region. We have a small area of late day low-end chance POPs in
our far southern GA zones, otherwise we maintained slight chance
POPs in southeast GA.

Hot and humid weather, typical for this time of year will persist.
Highs will reach the mid 90s with perhaps a few upper 90s adjacent
to the CSRA and southeast Midlands. Forecast heat indices reach
the 105-107 degree range later today but windows of any
potentially higher indices appears very small in areal extent.

Tonight: If any early evening convection lingers over southeast
GA, it should diminish rather quickly prior to 03Z. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in
the mid 70s most areas. Beaches will remain around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: High pressure will gradually retreat over the Western
Atlantic while lee troughing develops over the Midlands early week.
Guidance suggests that weak mid-lvl energy will pass just off the
Southeast coast, perhaps spawning showers and thunderstorms near the
beaches. However, additional precip activity should develop inland
where max temps approach the mid 90s near the vicinity of the lee
trough. Chances of showers/thunderstorms remain in the forecast
during mid afternoon/evening hours. Activity should diminish within
a few hours of sunset, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm can
not be ruled out overnight. Low temps should range in the mid 70s.

Monday and Tuesday: A southwest flow will advect deep moisture over
the Southeast United States well ahead of a cold front approaching
from the north/northwest mid week. Fairly unstable conditions will
develop each afternoon, even as cloud cover expands over the region.
PWATs around 2.25 inches along with max temps in the lower 90s
support chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with
greater precip coverage anticipated on Tuesday as mid-lvl energy
shifts over the Southeast while a sfc trough persists inland.
Overnight lows will remain mild under some clouds, generally ranging
in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will persist through mid week while
southwest flow advects deep moisture to the region ahead of a cold
front approaching from the north/northwest. The cold front should
struggle to push south into the region, likely stalling just north
of the area as its parent mid/upper lvl trough of low pressure
shifts off the Northeast coast. However, weak low pressure should
develop near the stalled boundary on Wednesday and persist through
late week until a second mid/upper lvl trough shifts over the
Northeast and gradually amplifies, forcing some mid-lvl energy over
the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states late week. The pattern
suggests at least chances of showers and thunderstorms each day with
greatest coverage occurring during peak diurnal heating hours. Temps
will generally peak around normal mid week, but could approach the
mid 90s by the upcoming weekend. Overnight lows will range in the
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR at KSAV/KCHS through 06Z Sunday. Isolated late day showers
and tstms are possible along the southeast GA sea breeze
corridor.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Afternoon showers/thunderstorms could
provide brief flight restrictions each day. However, greatest
chances of flight restrictions should occur on Wednesday as a cold
front stalls just north of the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient is slowly strengthening between the high
pressure centered south of Bermuda and a better defined Piedmont
surface trough well inland. Southwest to south flow is expected
to increase to a solid 15 kt later this afternoon and continue
tonight, before decreasing toward daybreak. Seas will increase
from 2 to 3 ft to 3-4 ft as winds build.

Sunday through Thursday: High pressure will prevail over the waters
early next week while a trough of low pressure develops inland. A
cold front will then stall just north of the area during the middle
of next week before weak low pressure slides closer to the coast. In
general, winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through the period. However, we could see southwest
winds gusting around 20 kts Sunday and Monday while the pressure
gradient is somewhat enhanced over coastal waters. The gradient
should then relax as low pressure gradually shifts near the
Southeast coast mid week. Seas will generally range between 2-4 ft,
with the exception of some 5 feet seas near 20 nm away from the
South Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide levels due to the lunar perigee and new moon will
result in the possibility for minor coastal flooding during the
evening high tides this weekend into early next week, especially
along the SC coast. This evening`s chances for shallow coastal
flooding look decent (similar to yesterday) and coastal flood
advisories may be required later today.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...