Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 060853
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. AN
INCREASE IN PRIMARILY MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A LIFT FROM
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER A BELOW ZERO START TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO 20/LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND NORMAL LOWS MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VERY COLD
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA



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