Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290558
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DOING LITTLE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEATHER. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. WARM AND STEAMY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL GET TO ABOUT
PLUS 20 TOMORROW WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST BUT 90 DEGREES
LOOKS PROMISING MOST AREAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IN THE UPPER 90S. DO NOT FEEL WE NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. BIT QUESTION TOMORROW IS PRECIP CHANCES.
THE AREA WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF PLUS 10.
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE
COLD FRONT AND THEN ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA. MU CAPES DON`T GET
MUCH ABOVE 1000 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN ABOUT 21Z ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUE TILL ABOUT 06Z IN THE FAR EAST. THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY AND IF CONVECTION DOES FAIL TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST IT
MAY END UP BEING DRY MOST AREAS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE
DRY ALL AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME HINT BY THE GFS THAT PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY AND WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME AMONGST THE MODELS...THE
DETAILS ARE NOT AND HAVE VARIED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GFS DEEPER AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL/NORTHWEST. THIS GIVES
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. DID NOT STRAY FROM
WPC GUIDANCE WITH ONE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST OR ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DECENT CAPE WILL DEVELOP SO THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST MENTION
"VICINITY" FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR KCLE SINCE THE ODDS OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE AIRPORTS DOES NOT SEEM VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IN A THUNDERSTORM.
NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE AT KCLE. TYPICALLY THERE
IS ENOUGH SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK TODAY.
A LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT SEEMS LIKELY AT KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVERSE TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST
ENOUGH TO GET AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ALSO FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADV ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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