Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 260436
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1136 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
High pressure over the plains will move east across the Ohio
Valley on Sunday. The high will move off the Carolina coast on
Monday. A warm front will develop in the Ohio Valley on Monday
and move north across the area Monday night. Low pressure will
develop over the plains by Monday night and move to lower
Michigan by Wednesday. A strong cold front from this low will
push east across the local area later Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Snow has tapered off to mainly flurries as there is little
synoptic forcing, just weak cold advection and orographic lift.
The west flow is just cold enough off Lake Erie for lake effect
snow showers and flurries in the snowbelt. With the inversion
topping off only around 5K and the air mass barely cold enough
to support true lake effect, snow amounts will be light.
A weak trailing short wave will cross the lower Great Lakes in
the early morning hours and the lake snow could be enhanced a
bit for a few hours toward daybreak. With the west flow the only
spot that would seem to have much chance for more than an inch
of snow would be Erie County, PA and mainly just the higher
terrain of eastern Erie County from around Route 86 and 430
perhaps down toward Wattsburg where 2 or perhaps locally 3
inches may accumulate.
The wind will gradually diminish tonight but it will remain
brisk for a while and will seem down right cold compared to
what it has been. Lows in the 20s. Some clearing will begin to
reach northwest Ohio by daybreak.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The lake effect should quickly die down on Sunday as ridging and
low level drying win out. Warm air advection will get going
during the day and temps should climb to around normal for
highs. The warming will continue through midweek as a pair of
low pressure systems move northeast out of the Plains. These
lows will eventually merge and reach lower Michigan late
Wednesday. The models are in fair agreement with this scenario
which means a period of wet weather is likely at mid week.
But...first things first. The models are also showing some warm
air advection precip on Monday. Think this is mostly overdone
for the local area with better chances just to the south. Have
gone ahead and trimmed back precip chances to the far southern
end of the area. Would be surprised to see much more than
sprinkles. Have also slowed down the precip for early Tuesday
based on the new guidance. It appears the precip will come in
waves. The first is expected on Tuesday as the first low moves
to just north of the area. There may be a brief dry period
before a more significant wave of precip arrives as the lows
merge Tuesday night into Wednesday. Will go with likely or
higher wording for Tuesday night. A half inch to inch of QPF
looks possible if the 12z guidance is correct.
Have stayed close to guidance for temps.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models continue to track low pressure across the lower lakes on
Wednesday then tracking them into New England on Thursday. Luckily
it will be warm enough on Wednesday that all precip should fall as
rain. Behind the system more seasonal conditions return. Rain turns
to snow Wednesday night as the 850mb temps dip to -10c by daybreak
Thursday. Chance of snow continues into Friday as Upper level
trough will linger across the Eastern Great Lakes. High pressure
finally builds over the area again Saturday morning.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Evidence of the end of the snow showers appearing upstream as
the ridge building in is ending the snow showers across far
western MI. Mix of lower end VFR and MVFR will continue
overnight. Best chance for MVFR conditions is where there is
some upslope or lake influence with the west winds...so
MFD/YNG/CLE/ERI. Flurries outside of the snowbelt of NE OH/NW
PA...where the better snow showers are expected. KERI may very
well dip into IFR range with the snow...but there is no timing
it without a developed band/enhanced snow. Clearing will arrive
Sunday from west to east. Surface high passes to our south and
as that backs the winds to the southwest...the snow shower
chances will end by mid afternoon for KERI and ceilings will
improve there too. A few gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible for
TOL/FDY/CLE/MFD for Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Areas on non-vfr Tuesday through Thursday.
West winds to 30 knots will gradually diminish overnight as
high pressure slowly builds over the lake. Winds on the West
half of the lake will diminish to 10 to 20 knots late this
evening...but the small craft on the East half of the lake will
continue into Sunday morning. Winds turn to the south Sunday
night as the high shifts east of the lake. Winds will increase
considerably on Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front
as the low moves off to the east.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Sunday for LEZ146>149.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>145.