Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 111702
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1202 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT STILL THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE WITH ONGOING NW
BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO. ANOTHER BAND
FEEDING OFF LAKE HURON IS IMPACTING ERIE PA. THE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE AREA IS TRYING TO REDUCE THE SNOW AMOUNTS...HOWEVER A
QUICK HALF TO TWO INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE SNOW RATIOS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING HEADLINES
THROUGH 4 PM. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM THE WNW TO THE W WHICH WILL CHANGE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BANDS AND HELP REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. BEYOND THE SNOWBELT WE ARE SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUPPORT ONGOING CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THOSE WANTING WARMER WEATHER YOU ARE GOING TO BE
DISAPPOINTED. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WILL END THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS AN 850 MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. IF WINDS
LESSEN TEMPS COULD GET REALLY COLD. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST
LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AND AS A CLIPPER WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. A GENERAL LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER ISN`T OVERLY MOIST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT A RENEWAL OF THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY. A HURON BAND COULD GET SET UP ON SATURDAY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THE
AIRMASS WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE SO THE SNOW MAY NOT BE AS
HEAVY AS THE ONGOING CURRENT EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN END THE SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS IT STANDS WILL
ONLY BRING IN CHANCES POPS BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE FLOW TO BEGIN
NEXT WORK WEEK.   BASICALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE TREND FOR BOTH MODELS IS
SIMILAR THE TRACK AND TIMING OFF SO DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PINPOINT
PERIODS OF SNOW. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST...FINALLY REACHING NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS FEATURE. BY WEDNESDAY ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING IN.
MOST LOCATIONS NOT IN THE SNOWBELT WILL PICK UP LESS THAN AN INCH
OF SNOW. SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MARINE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN PUSHING 30 KNOTS. WILL SEE
A QUICK BREAK TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. BUT NEXT ARCTIC BLAST DUE IN ON FRIDAY. MARGINAL GALES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO
-24C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY WINDS CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT THIS POINT THE LAKE IS
PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND BEGIN TO COME
OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ013-014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN


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