Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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529
FXUS61 KCLE 031343
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITES CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE
AREA IN INDIANA RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN...MOST OF WHICH
IS NOT ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT FALLS APART. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE ONGOING MOST CLOUDY SKIES
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL CUT OFF THE COLD LAKE BREEZE...AND WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 5C
COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH INSTABILITY DUE MAINLY TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WEST HALF AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER WITH THE COOL MOIST FLOW CONTINUING WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
EAST AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY FINALLY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST
ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AT THE
SURFACE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT
THEN ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE A RECOVERY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT STRONG. UNFORTUNATELY...AS WIND WILL BE FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOL
SIDE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH BACK EAST DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME FOG IN A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE VFR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ON THE LAKE. FLOW
WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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