Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 272357
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
557 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Note Aviation discussion below related to the 00z TAFs
A transition from VFR this evening to MVFR/IFR ceilings expected
overnight/early Tuesday morning. Brief MVFR visibilities may
occur over inland areas mainly north of U.S. 181 during the 08-13z
Tuesday period. Anticipate LLWS over generally near and east of
U.S. 281 mainly during the 09-13z Tuesday period. Expect a
transition to predominate VFR conditions during the late
morning/early afternoon period. Expect gusty S/SE surface wind to
develop during the mid morning hours and continue through the
afternoon mainly east of State Road 16.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Skies continue to clear across the interior Coastal Bend while
onshore flow brings dewpoints back into the upper-60s/low-70s, so
basically to June/early July levels! Temperatures too are several
degrees above average for the end of meteorological winter, which
ends tomorrow though some would say it ended right after New Years.
The well above seasonal average dewpoints and continued nocturnal
mixing will keep overnight lows very warm. We could tie or set a
couple of high minimum temperatures records tonight. Again, much
like this morning, thinking the lower clouds will be more prevalent
than fog as the winds will remain strong enough to keep it from
being anything more than patchy. Any fog that does develop should be
confined to the Victoria Crossroads and eastern Coastal Plain areas.
We keep the forecast dry on Tuesday with another day of lackluster
forcing, though moisture will still be quite high. Stronger low-
level jet around 40 knots will develop and move in across the
eastern 2/3rds of the region by late morning. This will ultimately
help to scour out the lower clouds as the morning inversion breaks
and allows for better downward momentum transfer to occur.
Temperatures will end February and meteorological winter on a very
very high note as we should end up nearly 20-25 degrees above
average. It looks like Corpus Christi and Victoria will end February
2017 as the warmest on record. Breezy afternoon with gusts upwards
of 30 mph are expected across the eastern half of the region. This
may pose a few elevated fire weather issues across the Southern
Coastal Bend as temperatures climb into the low-90s, even with
dewpoints in the mid-60s.
Nearly a wash-rinse-repeat for Tuesday night across the region as
clouds come rolling back in late evening. Fog could pose more of an
issue with a bit less in the way of surface mixing, the high
moisture content, and an approaching frontal boundary. The boundary
is not expected to move through until mid/late Wednesday morning but
as it nears from the north moisture pooled right along the boundary
may produce some denser pockets of fog. We continue with slight
chance for showers and embedded thunder across our Victoria
Crossroads area early Wednesday morning, otherwise we should be dry.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...
A cold front will move across the Coastal Bend on Wednesday morning,
with moderate northeast winds developing behind the front. Decent
moisture pooling and upper support should be enough for isolated or
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms before the front
sweeps all the activity offshore. Marine headlines may be needed
for Wednesday as winds and waves briefly pick up. Cooler and much
drier air will move into the area through Thursday.
Forecast becomes somewhat more complex for the weekend as a coastal
low develops offshore and lifts northeast. Rain chances return on
Friday as moisture overruns the now stalled boundary, then increase
on Saturday and Sunday as the low pressure center pushes off to the
east. Exact rainfall timing and projected amounts are still sketchy
at this point, but plan on needing an umbrella at some point,
especially Saturday and Saturday night.
Temperatures will return to near normal levels through midweek, then
rise again to above normal levels for the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 70 88 70 81 53 / 10 10 10 20 10
Victoria 69 86 69 79 48 / 10 10 20 30 10
Laredo 68 96 67 83 52 / 0 10 10 10 0
Alice 68 95 67 83 51 / 10 10 10 20 0
Rockport 71 82 70 77 54 / 10 10 10 30 10
Cotulla 67 95 65 82 49 / 0 10 10 10 0
Kingsville 70 94 68 82 52 / 10 10 10 20 10
Navy Corpus 71 82 70 76 56 / 10 10 10 30 10