Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 191136 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
636 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy fog has been limited to around VCT and over
parts of the eastern Brush Country. The fog will limit vsbys to
MVFR until 14Z. Low level moisture remains slow to reach the
coastal areas. Satellite imagery shows the higher moisture around
30 miles offshore. MVFR ceilings will be possible around VCT this
morning. Otherwise, removed mention of MVFR ceilings. Isolated
showers should affect the coastal areas by 15Z. Higher moisture
will move into the coastal plains by this afternoon. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the coastal
plains with better chances over the Victoria Crossroads. MVFR
vsbys will occur with the convection. A brief period this evening
when convection diminishes with loss of heating. But isolated to
scattered showers will form again during the overnight hours over
the coastal plains. MVFR vsbys will occur with the showers. MVFR
ceilings expected to become prevalent for coastal areas overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Arrival of higher moisture into the region will be a little slower
than previously forecasted. GOES derived image of precipitable
water showed an axis of higher moisture with PWAT to 1.7 inches
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico but not quite to the offshore
waters of the Middle Texas coast. Loop of PWAT imagery appears to
show the deeper moisture axis will advect toward the northern
Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads. Lowered PoPs to slight
chance for this morning due to delayed arrival of moisture with
only isolated showers making it inland. Scattered showers will be
limited to the Gulf waters.

Short wave trough moving into the Texas Big Bend and northern
Coahuila will move east into the Brush Country this afternoon.
Highest PoPs this afternoon will be from Rockport to Goliad and
northeast. Expect with enough influx of moisture by this afternoon
along with heating and the approach of the short wave trough,
there will be enough instability to see isolated thunderstorms.
Winds will increase to SCEC levels over the Gulf waters this
afternoon and continue through the night.

The short wave trough will move northeast tonight while another
weak short wave trough moves into the Big Bend/northern Mexico
again. The deeper moisture axis will remain over the coastal
waters into the northern Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads. The
short wave trough lifts northeast Friday and most of the region
will be affected by subsidence. Will keep chance PoPs over the
northeast part of the forecast area into the coastal waters with
slight chance along Interstate 37 with dry and warm out west on
Friday.

TIDES (Today)...

Tide levels continue to be not quite as elevated as the last few
days. Tides are about 0.9 feet above expected. With strengthening
easterly flow expected today, levels may increase to the point
where a Coastal Flood Advisory would be needed at the next high
tide this afternoon. But confidence not high at this point and
will allow day shift to determine need for advisory.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
possible during the end of the week, with the main activity confined
to areas east of I-37 Friday night and Saturday.  Above normal
temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with highs
on Saturday hitting the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.
The upper level trough will progress further eastward over the
weekend, bringing an associated cold front south and through the
region swiftly on Sunday morning. This will bring higher chances for
showers and storms on Sunday, with again the highest PoPs over the
eastern and marine zones where the greater moisture will reside.
Anticipate dry and cooler air to filter into the region into early
next week.  Rain chances will quickly drop in the wake of fropa,
with a rain-free forecast Monday through the rest of the period.
Gusty north winds will develop over the Middle Texas Coastal Waters
behind the front on Sunday night into Monday, and a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed. Prime outdoor conditions will develop over
the latter half of the period, with pleasantly low humidity along
with lows in the mid 50s/low 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  69  88  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
Victoria          85  69  86  71  87  /  40  30  40  20  30
Laredo            87  69  89  71  92  /   0  10  10  10  10
Alice             88  67  90  70  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
Rockport          83  73  85  75  88  /  30  40  30  20  30
Cotulla           86  68  89  69  91  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        88  67  89  71  92  /  20  20  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       83  72  86  77  89  /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION


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