Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 292051
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
351 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Isolated to scattered showers will continue this afternoon and
early evening across South Texas. There may be a brief lull in
activity later this evening, but rain chances will persist during
the short term.

Weak upper level low will approach the Middle Texas coast later
tonight into Tuesday. Increased lift along with deep tropical
moisture (PWs at or above 2 inches) will result in additional
chances for convection across the area. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight over the Gulf Waters and
then move inland during the day. Pops were kept at 50 percent for
Tuesday. Some of the showers and storms will be capable of
producing moderate to brief heavy downpours. Cloud cover and rain
chances will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances will continue Tuesday night, with favored locations
across the southern and western parts of the area. Will keep 20
pops across the north to the 40 percent across the southern and
western areas. Slightly drier air may filter in from the north
which will begin to diminish rain chances towards the latter part
of the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Mid level low continues to shift south-southeast along the Texas
coast Wednesday as mid level ridging builds in from the northwest.
Mid level heights do not increase much, but overall, drier air moves
into the region with the beginnings of downsloping. As a result,
kept lower rain chances beginning Wednesday. Most activity should
remain as thick cloud coverage with showers or light rain through
Thursday, but due to lingering midlevel energy, maintained the
thunder wording. At the surface, models continue to slide high
pressure in from the northeast late in the week. Recent model runs
have now pooled more moisture along the southern extent of the front
which should be enough to at least mention a slight chance for rain
Friday and Saturday as it approaches the region. With the lack of
ideal northerly flow aloft, this front is not expected to bring
cooler temperatures nor northerly winds. In fact, generally east-
northeasterly winds early in the week will return out of the
southeast as the boundary moves closer to the area. Lingering
moisture available will keep slight rain chances through Monday.
Temperatures overall will warm through period into the mid to upper
90s.

Tropical Depression 9...approx 170 miles west-southwest of Key West
FL...is currently expected to have minimal impacts across South
Texas. At this time...an increase in long period swell may enhance
the rip current risk late this week along Gulf-facing beaches.
Please see National Hurricane Center products for the latest
forecast information on Tropical Depression 9.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  76  90  76  95  /  60  50  50  30  20
Victoria          87  75  88  74  95  /  60  50  50  20  20
Laredo            91  75  91  75  96  /  50  30  50  40  20
Alice             90  74  90  73  95  /  50  40  50  30  20
Rockport          86  78  89  77  93  /  60  50  50  30  20
Cotulla           90  75  90  76  95  /  50  30  50  30  20
Kingsville        90  74  90  74  95  /  50  40  50  30  30
Navy Corpus       85  78  87  78  91  /  60  50  50  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM



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