Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 271540 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1040 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017
Allowed the SCA expire across the waters replacing with Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines across the bays and gulf waters
through the afternoon. Winds and seas have both dropped below SCA
criteria, with east wind expected to gradually veer out of the
southeast through the afternoon. Other than that, made changes to
the hourly grids to follow trends.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 543 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
See aviation and marine discussions for the latest updates.
VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period.
Increasing clouds tonight are expected to lead to MVFR....possibly
IFR...CIGS toward early Fri morning. Very light brief patchy fog
will also be possible early Fri morning. Northeast winds this
morning will shift around to the east and southeast through the
Moderate to strong northeast winds continue across the gulf waters
this morning. Am expecting the winds to decrease to below advisory
levels by mid to late morning as the high pressure shifts east.
Therefore, extended the SCA until 10 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Surface high pressure continues to build into S TX from the NE this
morning, but will begin to shift farther east through the morning
hours. This will lead to winds veering to the east and southeast
through the day. The cooler temps have been slow to advect into S
TX, but should help keep today`s mx temps a tad cooler than
yesterday`s. Otherwise, as winds swing around to the southeast, warm
moist air will begin to push back into S TX leading to hot mx temps
once again Fri. Despite a couple of weak embedded short waves aloft,
moisture will be very limited and no significant precip is expected
through the short term.
MARINE (Today through Friday)...
Strong northeast winds this morning will weaken through late morning
as sfc high pressure begins to shift east. Winds are expected to
drop below advisory levels later this morning. Winds will veer to
the east and southeast through the day and restrengthen tonight
becoming moderate by Friday. Moderate rip current risk is expected
briefly this morning, but should become low later today as winds
weaken and shift around to the southeast.
LONG TERM (Friday night through Tuesday)...
Upper low will move out of the Four Corners region on Friday night
and into the southern High Plains by Saturday night. In advance of
this feature, sfc trough/dryline will mix eastward across the region
on Saturday, probably as far east as the Brush Country. This will
result in very warm to hot conditions across the area, especially
across central and western parts of the area. High temps will likely
top 100 degrees over the Rio Grande with upper 80s over the Victoria
Crossroads. Pressure gradient will remain elevated over the Gulf
Waters with SCA conditions likely. The cold front will eventually
make its way southward across the state, moving through the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models are in pretty good
agreement with respect to timing, and push the front into the Gulf
Waters by 12z Sunday. Moisture pooled along the boundary and forcing
from the front should result in showers and thunderstorms developing
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The best chances for
showers and storms will be located over the Victoria Crossroads as
linear complex shift to the east. Strong to severe storms will be
possible along the line (most likely northeast of the area), but how
far south the threat materializes will need to be fine tuned in
subsequent forecasts. Rain chances should quickly end on Sunday as
drier air filters into South Texas. Northerly winds will increase
behind the front with SCA conditions likely again on Sunday. Temps
will be set back to or slightly below normal for this time of year
on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 80s over the Rio Grande to
mid/upper 70s over the northern Coastal Bend. Clear skies and winds
becoming light will lead to a chilly night Sunday with lows falling
into the 50s area-wide. A warming trend will begin on Monday and
continue through the middle of the week. The next front may move
through the area around Wednesday bringing the next chance of
showers and storms to the area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 86 74 92 78 93 / 0 10 10 10 10
Victoria 86 71 91 77 89 / 0 10 10 10 20
Laredo 95 73 100 76 102 / 0 0 10 10 10
Alice 91 70 100 76 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
Rockport 83 75 85 79 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 92 70 97 75 98 / 0 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 89 72 98 78 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 83 75 86 79 89 / 0 10 10 10 10