Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 310537
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected through tonight. Just tempo MVFR
cigs possible for ALI and VCT toward morning. Very small chance
of showers for VCT taf site during the day Sunday, but have
removed from TAF as chances are minimal. VCT conditions otherwise
through the day with gusty afternoon winds.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Note Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity along the sea
breeze should dissipate before 03z Sunday. Predominate VFR
conditions expected during the TAF period except for brief MVFR
visibilities 10-13z Sunday generally west of U.S. 77 and east of
State Road 16. Isolated showers may occur over the extreme NE
early/mid morning Sunday. Ambient wind becoming light S/SE
overnight then increasing during the mid morning/afternoon Sunday.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Isolated diurnally driven convection has initiated along the
seabreeze...with the greatest coverage located across the inland
Coastal Plains where moisture depth is the greatest. Seabreeze
will continue to push inland through the remainder of the
afternoon with isolated activity then dissipating with the onset
of nocturnal cooling. H5 ridging is prog to gradually strengthen
Sunday...resulting in drier conditions. However...nocturnally
driven marine convection during the late night hours may spread
north across the NE CWA...bringing an isolated/brief shower.
Otherwise...only a very isolated shower is expected along the
seabreeze in the afternoon. Continued hot and humid Sunday with
near seasonable temps.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday Night)...
Not much change to the extended forecast. Mid to upper level ridge
will maintain hot and dry conditions over South Texas through mid
week. Expect afternoon heat indices in the 105 to 109 range each
day.  Moisture begins to increase on Friday and especially Saturday
as a tropical disturbance/wave moves into the western gulf. Will
carry a chance of POPs during the weekend time period.  Still too
soon to get specific on the potential evolution of this system. NHC
currently indicates a medium probability of tropical cyclone
development as this system moves across the Caribbean over the next
5 days.  WPC/NHC also indicates a spot low in the southwest Gulf of
Mexico on Day 7 (12z Sat).  Stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  77  96  78  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          96  75  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo           103  78 104  78 103  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice            101  74 101  76 101  /  10   0  10   0  10
Rockport          93  81  92  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla          101  75 102  76 102  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        98  76  98  77  98  /  10   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       92  81  92  81  91  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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