Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 232352
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION....SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-08Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY 18-19Z MONDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH THE SFC REFLECTION MOVG ACRS THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN...WIND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PER 1000-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA. YET...LIMITED MSTR WL
PRECLUDE PCPN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDS NEVERTHELESS. COLD
TEMPEATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVER THE EXTREME NRN CWA. YET...WL FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACRS THE
CWA GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...AS THE FOREGOING COLD
FRONT MOVES ACRS THE MSA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP...CONSISTENT WITH NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT...AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES ACRS THE WARMER SEA SFC (65-70F
NEARSHORE AND 70-75F OFFSHORE PER SPORT SST COMPOSITE.) YET...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ONE LAST UPPER SYS WILL DIG
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY INITIATING A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF.  PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP ENUF OFFSHORE THAT WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDS BEFORE GRADIENT QUICKLY LETS UP TUE AFTN.
COULD ALSO SEE ENUF MSTR FOR SOME LIGHT SHRA OFFSHORE AND WILL
INCLUDE 20 POPS ERLY TUE.  OTHW THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK HELPING TO KEEP
OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A CONTD WARMUP.  LEANED TWRD THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
OVER THE MUCH COOLER HPC READINGS FOR HIGHS.  COULD SEE A FEW SHRA
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  66  45  69  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
VICTORIA          46  67  40  66  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
LAREDO            49  69  49  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             48  67  44  70  41  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          51  67  48  67  44  /   0   0  10  20   0
COTULLA           45  67  41  67  38  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        50  65  43  70  42  /   0   0  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       53  66  52  68  49  /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION




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