Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 240907
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...The mid to upper level
ridge over northern Mexico will build into south Texas today
and translate slowly east through the area on Wednesday. The
strong inversion evident on 00z CRP sounding will hold or
strengthen slightly with 70H temperatures around 14 degrees C.
High moisture will continue beneath the cap with clouds
persisting both days. With high humidity and warmer temperatures
expected for the western Brush Country...afternoon heat index
values could range from 105 to 109 degrees. With the strength
of the cap extending into higher terrain...not expecting any
convective development there this evening that could affect the
Rio Grande region. Strength of low level flow should inhibit
fog formation over the inland coastal plains late tonight.
The deeper low level moisture axis will move west into the
Brush Country for Wednesday. As the upper low over central
California early this morning moves east into the desert
southwest Wednesday afternoon...impulses in the southwest
flow aloft will move across Mexico and approach the Rio
Grande Wednesday afternoon. Better rain chances will be beyond
this period but could see isolated thunderstorms form over the
western Brush Country Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Today through Wednesday)...low pressure in west Texas
will maintain a southerly low level flow of 20-30 knots across
south Texas and the nearby coastal waters through Wednesday.
A moderate onshore flow will persist through the period with
SCEC conditions for all marine areas except the northern bays.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

Lead short wave will rotate around the southwest CONUS upper low and
trigger deep convection over the Sierra Madre Wed evening which will
likely overspread parts of our western counties overnight.  Too
early to tell whether this will evolve as an MCS or just a few
clusters so will hold onto the prev fcst which tapers pops from 50
far west to 20 closer to the coast.

Convective trends Wed Night will obviously have an impact on how
Thursday plays out storm wise as an early outflow boundary would
dramatically shift convective focus. Impossible to figure out how
the complex mesoscale process will work out at this juncture so will
focus higher pops (60 pct) in the less capped north-central tapering
to lower chances toward the coast and far west.  Stronger short wave
associated with a negative tilt upper sys over the plains will drive
through the area on Friday.  Still see a window for potential MCS
with strong wind threat - esply over the far north and east where
I`ve carried the highest pops. Drying/capping will overspread the
area late in the day cutting the precip off.  Blended guidance temps
looked fine. SCA conditions still look psbl Thurs and esply Friday
as onshore flow/seas peak in response to strongest p-gradient.

Deep ridging builds through the weekend into early next week but
plentiful mstr should yield isolated diurnal convection.  Will
maintain slight chance pops through the period.  Mex temperatures
looked good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  77  88  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Victoria          76  89  76  86  77  /  10  10  20  50  30
Laredo            78  98  78  96  77  /  10  20  40  40  40
Alice             77  93  77  90  78  /  10  10  20  50  40
Rockport          80  87  78  85  80  /  10  10  20  40  30
Cotulla           77  95  76  92  75  /  10  20  50  50  40
Kingsville        78  92  77  90  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Navy Corpus       79  89  79  85  80  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM


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