Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271125 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Little to no change to previous forecast. Most locations are
experiencing MVFR cigs and those conditions will remain so for at
least the first few hours before conditions improve. Still looks
as if there could be a few showers over the southern areas, mainly
KCRP but also kept KALI during the afternoon. Thus, kept the TEMPO
SHRA there. Think showers less likely at KVCT so removed them from
the forecast. No rainfall expected at KLRD. Generally expect a
north wind today and through most of the period most terminals
forecasts.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Weak frontal boundary has moved across South Texas this morning,
and some areas have temperatures in the 60s for a change. There
will not be a big drop in temperatures today, but a tad cooler
tonight and probably a bit warmer on Wednesday most areas mainly
because the cloud cover should be a bit lower on Wednesday.
Concerning rain chances, think MOS is on the high side as
precipitable waters are high (around 2 inches) but with the front
to the south and the upper ridge expected to begin to build into
the area, the forcing will be limited over inland areas. However,
the afternoon shows some surface forcing/convergence which along
with daytime heating and increased instability could be
sufficient for some showers later this afternoon mainly over areas
near the coast. Overall, do have a mention of rain today all
areas, with the chance POPs are over the coastal counties and
especially offshore. Feel the rain chances are pretty limited NW,
but did keep a mention there for consistency sake and
collaboration sake. Except for the lack of significant sunshine
today, it should be a nice break from the heat over the last few
months, with highs in the 80s area-wide (maybe upper 70s Faith
Ranch). With clouds continuing over the area tonight, will not go
very cool and keep temperatures around 70 most areas. For
Wednesday, rain will be offshore for the most part (if any, and
did keep a 20 POP over the extreme SE inland coastal areas), with
near seasonal values most locations. May actually have more
sunshine than forecasting at this time, but should see more sun in
the afternoon. MOS guidance still looks somewhat reasonable today
and tonight, with a blend of guidance used for Wednesday.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday)...

Moderate offshore flow today will weaken tonight. Will keep winds
just below SCEC for now. The more widespread convection should
spread farther south today, with isolated to scattered convection
tonight and Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Not much change in the long term. Surface high pressure builds in as
midlevel ridge sneaks in from the south between midlevel low
pressure to the east across the Ohio River Valley and another low
pressure system/trough to the west building into the Pacific
Northwest. Further rotation of the low pressure to the east will
bring down reinforcing surface high pressure to South Texas
Thursday, keeping mostly dry conditions through the period. There
might be enough moisture to pool along the reinforcing boundary to
pop out a shower or two mainly over the gulf waters, but for the
most part, most locations should remain dry. Daytime temperatures
will generally be in the upper 80s to 90s Thursday, but with the
surge of high pressure, cooler boundary layer temperatures are
expected to lead to daytime highs ranging in the mid 80s, struggling
to break 90 degrees. A noticeable change to the airmass will come
during the overnights as temperatures are expected to drop into the
low-mid 60s inland, with low 70s along the immediate coast. But
things will begin to slowly warm up heading into early next week as
winds shift out of the east to southeast and moisture returns to the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  72  90  74  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
Victoria          84  67  88  66  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
Laredo            82  69  89  71  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
Alice             86  69  90  70  92  /  20  10  10  10  10
Rockport          84  73  87  76  91  /  20  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           82  67  88  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        86  71  90  71  92  /  30  20  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       84  74  87  77  89  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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