Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 022207
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
407 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

Patchy rain and showers continue this late afternoon across South
Texas as the coastal trough develops. Some drying is expected,
with activity to wane this evening briefly, before redeveloping
late tonight along increased convergence zone along the coast,
extending northward toward the developing associated surface
boundary near the Victoria Crossroads. Additional shower
development is expected to move out of NE Mexico with the SE-NE
flow in the midlevels aided with divergent flow in the jet stream.
Slight lift northward of the boundary will begin to dry things
from south, however maintained 60-90% for much of the areas north
and along a line from Rockport to George West to Cotulla. The
north movement of the boundary will then begin to retrograde back
to the south as a cold front keeping elevated rain chances through
the evening and overnight hours, with best chances across the
Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend. As moisture
continues to run 2+ SD above normal, and increased upper dynamics
come into play, moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall is
expected through Saturday and Saturday night. With model soundings
showing slight drying in the mid levels developing, some storms
may allow for strong gusty winds. Models are also showing CAPE
values reaching near 1700 J/kg and with available shearing from
increased onshore flow just off the surface, a few of the storms
may become strong to possibly severe. However, the overall
concerns are mainly the persistent rains leading to minor flooding
and strong winds within any showers/storms. Strong onshore flow
just above the surface is expected to continue as the coastal
trough deepens. Warmer conditions over the waters will allow for
strong winds to mix down, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions
through the evening. Hazardous seas will continue through SCA
through the overnight as winds diminish. However winds are
expected to strengthen again heading into Saturday with SCA
conditions to likely continue.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Active weather pattern this weekend continues into Sunday. Main idea
is that a cold front will cross South Texas during the day on
Sunday, with an upper low hanging to the west of the CWA. High rain
chances will continue Sunday and Sunday night, tapering off on Monday
as the upper low finally passes and forcing moves to the east. May be
just enough instability and forcing for thunder, but the primary
threat may be excessive rainfall. Best chances for this appear to be
east and northeast of the Coastal Bend, but localized flooding is
possible.

South Texas dries out Monday and Tuesday before another system moves
in on Wednesday. Small chances for rain on Wednesday will end behind
the front, with much colder conditions Thursday and Friday as South
Texas sees its first modified Arctic air of the season.

Small craft advisories will likely be needed in the wake of the
midweek cold front. Models currently are hinting at the possibility
of gusts to gale force Wednesday night and early Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  77  64  69  56  /  70  60  70  70  70
Victoria          64  73  57  61  53  /  90  90  80  80  70
Laredo            67  80  59  63  52  /  70  30  70  70  70
Alice             69  79  62  66  54  /  70  50  70  70  70
Rockport          70  74  65  67  58  /  80  80  80  80  70
Cotulla           63  70  55  59  50  /  90  60  70  70  70
Kingsville        70  80  65  72  55  /  60  40  70  70  70
Navy Corpus       71  75  68  72  58  /  70  60  70  80  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



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