Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 272017
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COOL NIGHTS AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER ON
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS BEING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE TROUGH TO COME
ACROSS AND IMPACT THE AREA. WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY (INCLUDING MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE IS GETTING MORE CLEAR (AT LEAST THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER). THUS...THINK BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION (INCLUDING THUNDER) WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE GOING WITH BEING MORE PRECISE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY (GFS IS A BIT FASTER AND
ECMWF A BIT SLOWER). ALL MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY (EXTREME NORTHEAST AND
GULFMEX MAY HAVE SOME UPPER SUPPORT) SO THINK CONVECTION WILL BE
DONE WITH...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PWATS LESS
THAN 1 (NO RAIN). MAY BE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GFS WETTER AND BRINGING A FRONT EARLY...AND ECMWF DRIER AND
BRINGING  THE BOUNDARY LATER. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND DELAY
FRONT SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL GO A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY`S
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 2 METER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. OTHERWISE...
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(WED-THU) AND A BIT TOO COLD EARLY FOR LOWS (MON-TUE). HOWEVER...
SUPERBLEND LOOKS A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. ALL IS BASED ON 850MB
(VERY WARM THURSDAY) AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES.  CONSEQUENTLY...AM
GOING A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE NUMBERS...WHICH STILL IS
WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS. WITH FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM SUPERBLEND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  51  80  62  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          77  48  80  57  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            80  53  86  60  90  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             79  48  85  57  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          73  57  74  66  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           79  48  85  56  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        79  49  83  60  86  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  56  76  65  79  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





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