Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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229
FXUS64 KCRP 121125
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OR IT WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE FOG INDICATED AT VCT...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALI...BUT FOR NOW JUST STRATUS FOR CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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