Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 011749
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES NEAR ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST
OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 08-13Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WEAK/MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LGT/VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. STILL THINK SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE /AND BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS/.

AVIATION...XPCTNG A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID
MRNG AT MOST S TX TERMINALS...AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE. AFTER SEVERAL HRS OF DIURNAL
WARMING...AIRMASS SHOULD THEN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
ALLOW FOR ISO TO SCT CONVECTION VCNTY KCRP/KVCT/KALI BY LATE MRNG
THRU THE AFTN. MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING AWAY FROM CONVECTION DRNG THE AFTN. KLRD XPCTD TO
REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ISO CONVECTION MAY DVLP IN THE
AREA BY LATE AFTN. SOME DENSE CI EARLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS DVLPNG LATE. E/SE SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING IN
THE AFTN...AND STRONGER IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ALL 00Z GUIDANCE EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS FAILED TO PROPERLY HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SUITES ARE PLAYING /CATCH
UP/ AS OF WRITING. STRONG LLVL MOISTURE AND COASTAL SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG/ HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA WITH BASE OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS BRO MARINE AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE EXPLOSION IS THE
GREATEST. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN TODAY/S FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH ROUGHLY MID MORNING OWING TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT
CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE
MAY OCCUR AND DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED. AFTER THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION /ASSUMING IT PANS OUT/...FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERE INLAND BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. INLAND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN MONDAY GIVEN LOWER INLAND INSTABILITY VALUES AND AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED ENHANCED LLVL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SOUTHERN END OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING ON TO SHORE. AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ALOFT
ON WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY AND
HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF (JUST EAST OF OUR CWA)
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.7" TO 1.8") TO GENERATE ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
FLOW AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

MARINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A WATERSPOUT OR TWO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS GREAT AS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
PREVAILING AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  92  76  91  77  /  20  30  30  30  20
VICTORIA          73  92  73  90  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            76  99  76  98  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  73  94  74  /  10  20  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  90  77  89  78  /  40  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           74  98  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  95  75  93  76  /  20  20  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  90  78  88  79  /  40  30  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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