Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 191024
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BUSY THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE FRONT...AS OF WRITING...WAS ANALYZED /BASED OFF OBS AND
MSAS/ TO BE LOCATED FROM ROCKPORT TO JUST NORTH OF ALICE TO FREER
TO NEAR CARRIZO SPRINGS. AT THE MID LEVELS...A POTENT S/W TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS SW TX WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CWA WAS IN
THE RRQ OF AN ESTIMATED 105 KT JET STREAK /H25/. WAA HAS
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. AM EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES DUE TO APPROACH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
S/W TROUGH. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN CWA
ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DUE TO POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEBB COUNTY AS A RESULT. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING /BRINGING AN END TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS/ WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE EAST.
DECIDING UPON FORECAST MAX TEMPS IS A HEADACHE AS HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIKELY REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING TODAY...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME CLEARING OCCURRING BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP. TONIGHT...AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER OTHER THAN MAINTAINING SOME
CLOUD COVER. CAA AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED. COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST AND
SUNNIER ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS THE TAIL OF THE
SOUTHERN JET SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE LOW LVLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
WITH UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY SURFACE AND LOW LVL FLOW TAKES ON A SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION...BRINGING DRIER...WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. FROPA TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE GFS STILL AHEAD
OF THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HRS (WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL). THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...SWIFTLY SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RAMPS UP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AT THE END AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




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