Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231820
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
120 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The Small Craft Advisory for the northern nearshore Gulf waters
was allowed to expire as the winds have decreased enough and the
seas continue to subside.

18Z aviation cycle discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today...VFR. Winds continue to back towards the southeast around
15 knots with gusts upward of 25 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR. We lose the gusts but keep the onshore flow
going around 10 knots. Plenty of low-level moisture to go around
so expecting an area of stratus to develop and move inland around
midnight or shortly after. Medium to high confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Morning stratus lifts and scatters out leaving a
broken deck of stratocu. Could see some late morning showers and
thunderstorms develop near the coast and push inland as the sea
breeze circulation gets going. Added a PROB30 for -TSRA at KCRP
at this time. Medium confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A few updates this morning, mostly to our headline products. One
of the biggest concerns today is the dangerous heat index values
we expect, this time area-wide. With onshore flow prevailing today
afternoon temperatures may be tempered a bit from 24 hours, but
with warm Gulf and Bays temperatures our dew point readings should
be 4 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday. Just plain oppressive out
today. Kleberg County was upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning
due to the fetch off Baffin Bay where dew point temperatures may
near 80 degrees during peak heating. We could see heat index
values in and around Kingsville exceed 115 degrees, possibly push
close to 120 degrees, so very dangerous conditions expected. Heat
Advisory for the remainder of South Texas remains in place.

Upgraded the rip current risk to High with long period swells
still traversing the Gulf waters. As the afternoon winds back more
southeasterly the strength of the wind waves will increase making
for rougher conditions. Also cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory
as tide levels are well below our 2.0` MSL threshold and the
tidal departures are now less than a foot. Now there could be some
very isolated pockets of better wave run- up today with the long
period swells in place but area webcams so a lot of the beach
roads are passable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  94  77  91  75  /  10  30  30  50  40
Victoria          78  93  75  92  74  /  10  40  30  60  30
Laredo            81 100  76  96  76  /  10  20  20  40  20
Alice             78  96  75  94  74  /  10  30  30  50  30
Rockport          82  92  79  91  78  /  10  30  40  60  50
Cotulla           78  99  75  96  75  /  10  20  20  30  20
Kingsville        79  95  76  93  75  /  10  30  30  50  30
Navy Corpus       81  91  80  91  79  /  10  30  40  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...Refugio...
     San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Kleberg.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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