Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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349
FXUS64 KCRP 192141
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
341 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Upper-level trough axis is slow to move eastward hence why the
clouds hung on longer today than expected and kept temperatures a
bit cooler too. With the loss of the daytime heating and trough axis
pivoting farther east-northeast we should start off mostly clear
tonight across much of the region. Light winds, clear skies, and
ample surface moisture will set us up for good radiational fog
conditions tonight. The fog looks to become dense at times tonight
across the Coastal Bend and interior areas up through Victoria
Crossroads so it is something to keep an eye on but did not have the
confidence to issue at advisory at this time.

SREF PQPF guidance indicates a higher chance for showers and
thunderstorms across our eastern zones and coastal waters beginning
late tomorrow morning through the evening hours. This is tied to a
mid-level shortwave that moves through in tandem with an upper-level
jet streak right entrance region helping to provide the better lift.
We may be too quick to introduce PoPs back into the region with this
forecast package given the dryness of the column initially but we
should moisten up enough throughout the day to see the isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Clouds may also hold
onto the region a bit longer so we keep temperatures cooler across
the east while over the west/Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country we
could see temperatures soar to near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

Main weather impact during the extended forecast will be the very
strong winds and low relative humidity values on Sunday.

A strong upper level system will be moving out of the Southwest US
and approaching the area on Saturday. Well above normal temperatures
will be common across South Texas ahead of this system. Highs on
Saturday will be in the middle 80s over the Rio Grande Plains to
upper 70s to lower 80s across the Victoria Crossroads.

This system will pass to the north of the area on Saturday night
with the frontal boundary moving through by Sunday morning. Behind
the front, very strong winds will develop over South Texas. This is
due to 500mb speed max of 90 knots transversing the area. In
addition, area soundings indicate momentum transfer of 50 to 55
knots could mix down to the surface. This will lead to very windy
conditions with northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with some gusts around
50 to 55 mph at times. Strongest winds look to occur between 15z/16z
and 21z/22z. Wind headlines will most likely be needed for Sunday.
Also, the strong winds combined with the dry air over the region
will result in critical fire weather conditions and a Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect. Winds will then begin to diminish over land
late in the afternoon/early evening.

Quiet weather is then expected on Monday as upper level ridging over
the area. However, progressive pattern will continue with next
system moving into the Plains around midweek. The next front looks
to move through around the Wednesday time frame. Rain chances
should be mainly confined to the offshore waters. Above normal
temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday with highs in the
70s and 80s. By Wednesday, temps will be knocked back down into
the lower 70s behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong northwest winds will develop behind cold front late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Sustained winds between 30 and 35 knots
with gusts to 45 knots will be likely on Sunday. Gale headlines will
likely be needed for Sunday. Hazardous seas will also develop with
wave heights upward of 9 to 12 feet over the offshore waters. Winds
and seas will be slow to diminish with small craft advisory
conditions continuing into early Monday.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  74  61  83  55  /  10  40  10  10  10
Victoria          54  75  56  79  53  /  10  50  20  10  10
Laredo            59  80  58  86  55  /   0  10  10  10  10
Alice             56  77  58  85  54  /  10  30  10  10  10
Rockport          58  71  60  79  55  /  10  50  10  10  10
Cotulla           52  80  53  85  54  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        55  77  59  86  55  /  10  40  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       60  71  62  78  56  /  10  50  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     For the following zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...
     Goliad...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...
     McMullen...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...
     Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM



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