Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 051047
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SAT-MON TIMEFRAME...THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING MCLEAR SKIES. IR LOOP AT 09Z SHOWING CIRRUS
OVER SOUTHERN PA...WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY 12Z.

SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROF WILL CLIP NORTHERN PA
THIS AFTN...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA NORTH OF I-80. NR
TERM MDL DATA SUGGEST THE BEST CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE ARND MIDDAY
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND MID AFTN OVR THE MTNS NORTH AND EAST OF
KIPT. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVR BY EARLY EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE.

AFTER A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED
W/COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE A MIX OF SUN AND CU OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 11C-14C
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE
M80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL BUILD SE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE M/U40S IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
PA...WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER. ELSEWHERE...LATEST CONSALL
OUTPUT SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE 55-60F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA.

SFC LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN PA BY THU AFTN. MDL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO
TRACK THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY
WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR DIFFS REMAIN REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF PA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP...SO WILL
MENTION CHC/SCHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE
THRU FRIDAY AM. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ODDS NOW APPEAR TO FAVOR FAIR
AND SEASONABLE WX THIS WEEKEND...AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION
OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS
VALLEY. GEFS TEMP PLUMES INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS HGTS RISE ACROSS PA.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD WITH MASS
FIELDS INTO NEXT WEEK...LENDING CONFIDENCE IN A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARND NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY DEVIATION FROM VFR WILL BE
SOME PATCHY LIGHT VALLEY FOG THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON...THEN A TRANSITION
TO MVFR WITH A STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FOR THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA.
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER ONE INCH...AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS
WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KJST TO KMDT.

SAT AND SUN...EARLY MORNING REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M
SHRA/TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN


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