Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 061139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. TEMPS OVER THE EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE
UP OR DOWN MORE THAN A FEW DEGS F.

PREV...
UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
IN FROM THE NE. A FAIRLY HEAVY BATCH OF RAIN HAS RECENTLY MOVED
OVER HUNTINGDON AND HEADED FOR BEDFORD. RADAR ESTIMATES PUT UP TO
AN INCH OF RAINFALL RIGHT IN HUNTINGDON. VERY LIGHT PRECIP
OUTSIDE OF THERE. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC PLACES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE AND IT IS SLIDING TO THE WNW. THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD BE CREEPING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AS IT DOES
SO...WE SHOULD HAVE A RICH FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THUS...HIGH
POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE PWATS ARE
STILL GOING TO BE UNDER AN INCH. WITHOUT MUCH BETTER WATER
CONTENT...THE RAIN SHOULD STAY LIGHT-MODERATE. THE STEADIEST
PERIOD RAIN SHOULD START IN THE E/SE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THE
LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY...SO THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM E-W
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW
NEARS...BUT NONE SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY TALL CELLS. STILL EXPECT
NO FLOODING ISSUES SINCE IT IS ALL PRETTY GENTLE AND NO
RIVERS/STREAMS ARE RUNNING EVEN CLOSE TO HIGH/BANKFULL. CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE - AND EVEN NUDGE A BIT MORE TO
THE WEST AND INTO NWRN PA. TEMPS SHOULD RISE A LITTLE...BUT NOT
MUCH IN THE SERN COS WHERE THE RAIN STARTS RATHER EARLY IN THE
DAY. THE NW WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO POKE ABOVE 60F. BUT MOST
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND GETTING KICKED OUT TO SEA BY
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WNW ON SAT. THERE MIGHT BE
A LULL IN THE PRECIP ON SAT IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS.

THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE SOME SEASONABLY MILD AIR
IN FROM THE SW. MAXES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
HELP GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/FRONT. WILL JUST MENTION
SOME TS IN THE LATE AFTN IN THE W AND CARRY IT INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.
AGAIN...MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. LITTLE/NO RISK
FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING. THE 8H TEMPS FROM 10-12C DOWN TO
AROUND A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.

THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A RISK FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS. TROUGH EVENTUALLY COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
LARGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06/12Z TAFS THROUGH 07/12Z | ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT 05/06/16
LGT-MOD RAIN AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM E-W ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE TODAY AROUND UPPER LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
MAIN CHANGE FROM 06Z SCHEDULED TAFS WAS TO SPEED UP ARRIVAL TIME
OF RAIN BY 1-2 HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL TREND LOWER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT LOW CIGS/FOG/DZ WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY-TUESDAY

SAT...A.M. IFR/MVFR BCMG MVFR/VFR BY AFTN AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO
230-260 DEGREES. MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH PERIOD OF SHRA/CFROPA 03-12Z.

SUN-MON...VFR/NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS/MVFR PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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