Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 011512
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS ALMOST GONE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCH OVER TIOGA CO. THIS
TOO SHALL PASS. THE CU HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN THE LAURELS AND
MID SUSQ/POCONOS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING TO HAPPEN THIS AFTN
MAY WIPE SOME OF THOSE AWAY DESPITE THE CURRENTLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP BACK INTO THE L60S AND PERHAPS U50S
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVS THIS AFTN. CHC FOR PCPN IS STILL MIGHTY LOW
GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. ONLY THE LAURELS OR NERN
MTNS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT A SPRINKLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
CLIMATE...


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