Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LURKING JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BANDS OF ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE OCCURRING WITHIN THE THERMALLY
DIRECT BRANCH OF AN APPROACHING 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET.

A BLEND OF THE MOIST NAM/SREF AND THE MORE DETAILED AND SOMEWHAT
DRY 02/08Z HRRR MODEL YIELDS A FEW NARROW BANDS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...NE TO THE POCONOS OF NEPA.

RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE NARROW BANDS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF QPF - CONCENTRATED FROM KAOO TO KSEG AND KAVP.

FCST HIGH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WILL BE SOME 10-14F BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
7-12 KTS.

LOWS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS
AND SFC NERLY FLOW PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE /MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80/.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DISPLAY A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
RANGING FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S JUST TO THE EAST OF KBFD...TO
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH /REFLECTING THE OVER 1 INCH PWAT
GRADIENT FROM KBFD TO KLNS/.

PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH /AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE/ AS THE ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925 MB STRENGTHENS FURTHER.

HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MAY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR /ALONG WITH
MINIMAL CHC FOR QPF. THE SOUTH /AND ESPECIALLY THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM
JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THUS THE THINKING REMAINS FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF
MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE
IT HARD NOT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. SOME DRIER
AIR MAY WORK INTO NRN PA AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AT BFD. A
DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW WILL LKLY HOLD LOW
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA LATER THIS WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CIGS LKLY ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN
AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY
EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1
DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE
MONTH.

MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT
WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991,
1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
DURING THE MONTH.

SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR
WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.