Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290204
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1004 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will push across the region late Sunday
and Monday. The heavy rain and deep tropical moisture from the
tropical cyclone nearing SC tonight should stay more along the
coast this weekend. However, some constant moderate rainfall is
possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Sunday Night. High
pressure will build into the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
All is on track.

Previous...
Just a few showers up in the NW as stabilization is occurring
elsewhere. Some high clouds already peeling off TS Bonnie and
making it into the central Appalachians and SC PA. So, it may not
be totally clear overnight. Will hang onto POPs just a bit longer
in the NW with an expectation that they will weaken some and break
apart some as they make their own cold pool. Cool to see the
well-defined and long outflow boundaries spreading away from the
earlier convection.

Previous...
Convection is waning with very few returns left on the radar.
Still a few things popping up over the NW and Laurels. But, the
overall trend continues with most of the area dry and the sky
beginning to clear. Tweaks this update were mainly to temps, and
to POPs so they fit tighter to radar in the first hour/two.

Previous...
Current convection already looks to be on the downswing. Only very
isolated TSRA at this point. Expect most radar returns to be gone
before sunset. Capping aloft and loss of heating should keep
anything else from forming through the rest of the night. some fog
is again possible mainly in the valleys where it rained today.
But, there will probably be enough of a time period of
drying/evaporation this evening before we totally stratify and
stabilize to keep the fog from being widespread. It will be muggy.
Mins in the 60s over all the area, much like July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday looks like a copy of Sat in many ways. The heating will
lead to isolated/scattered convection popping off the ridges.
However, some more support may be nearing from the west before
sunset and could help the diurnal convection last longer. Any
moisture from the TC to our south should remain well to the SE of
the area Sunday. Temps look a bit cooler on Sunday afternoon than
Sat - just a bit more cloud cover and just slightly lower 8H
temps overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still looks like the highest pops would be Sunday night. A plume
of tropical moisture lifting up the coast could bring a brief shot
of heavy rain to the eastern areas Sunday Night.

Models have things clearing out on Monday.

Looking warm but mainly dry for the period Tuesday into Wed...as
the cold front moves se of our area.

Chance of showers and storms increase later Thursday into
Friday...as a cold front moves se. Cooler weather to follow
the front.

For Monday into Friday...just made minor changes to the
package.

Took the superblend and made minor adjustments to next
Saturday. Looks like a weak wave may lift ne along the cold
front. Adjusted superblend pops a little to fit in.

Pattern trying to set up for the week after next would
favor a cooler and wetter cycle again.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move north and shouldn`t
have any reducing conditions through the first half of the
overnight period. Areas that received precipitation, especially
BFD, JST and AOO could see early morning Fog/mist and possibly
some low stratocu. MVFR with brief periods of IFR are possible
between 08Z and 12Z. However an upper level trough will move
through early tomorrow morning which will bring moist
southwesterly flow. this could bring a chance for late morning,
early afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Through the first half
of the afternoon reducing conditions should be contained to the
central and western TAF sites. As the trough moves eastward Sunday
night the eastern TAF sites could see periods of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA
and will help to enhance the shower coverage. Rain with a slight
tropical connection may slide across MDT/LNS Sun night.

OUTLOOK...

Mon...Sct tsra impacts poss.

Tue-Thu...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru


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