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000
FXUS61 KCTP 101218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
818 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A LATE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH ADVECTS MILDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS WEAK RETURNS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...BUT HIGH CEILINGS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE ASSURING
THAT IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...IT`S VERY LIGHT AND
INSIGNIFICANT.

THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATE WSW BREEZE AND SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND NICELY TODAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
THE VERY PLEASANT 50S...AND A FEW SPOTS COULD NUDGE 60. OTHER THAN
A STRAY SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVER THE NORTH...IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND
RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 DEGREES OR SO IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT BEFORE A RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER OCCURS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS NOW IN THE PROJECTED
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT STORM THAT SHOULD MOVE IN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS MADE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH NRN VA TO THE NJ
COAST. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET IS FCST TO SLIDE
EAST OVER NY STATE...HELPING SUPPORT A ZONE OF VIGOROUS
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE COLD AIR IS STACKED UP OVER NWRN
PA...BUT IT GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD ON THE LOWER BRANCH OF THE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC JET CIRCULATION UNDER THE JET STREAK
ENTRANCE REGION AS THE STORM DEEPENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT WITH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TRANSITIONING SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEING THAT THE BULK
OF THE STORM SHOULD BE WHAT IS CONSIDERED MY 5TH PERIOD...HAVE
OPTED TO NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES AS YET SINCE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SIG SNOW IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. CONCERNS FOR THE STORM ARE
BEING ADDRESSED HERE AND IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE UPCOMING STORM THAT COULD CAUSE CONCERN WOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON SOME OF OUR SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS. ICE COVER IS IMMENSE THIS YEAR AND A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN COUPLED WITH A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS. AT THIS POINT THE
RAIN/SNOW-MELT AND ICE BREAK UP DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
AFFECT LARGER RIVERS...BUT AREAS WHERE THEY HAVE ALREADY HAD ICE
JAM ISSUES NEED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST UPDATES SINCE ICE
JAM FLOODING IS VIRTUALLY UNPREDICTABLE.

AFTER THE STORM...QUITE COLD AIR...AROUND -20C AT 850MB...GETS
DRIVEN INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW WIND WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH BY FAR THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN STORE THURSDAY.
AS IF WE NEED MORE...TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND STRUGGLING TO
APPROACH 20F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
COMBINED WITH A STIFF BREEZE...WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NW HALF OF CWA FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE DAY.

THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS TEMPS
REBOUND DECENTLY FRI INTO SAT...BOUNCING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER THIS WINTER`S DEFINING FEATURE...THE PERSISTENT
WEST COAST RIDGE...IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER PA...KEEPING TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND PREVENTING ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

RADAR SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT NOT SEEING
ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET...BUT STILL SEVERAL HOURS WHERE
IT MIGHT DO SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLDS
TODAY...ALONG WITH LLWS...GIVEN LIGHTER FLOW AT LOW LVLS.

FAR WESTERN AREAS LIKE JST AND EVEN BFD IN STRONGER FLOW NOW.
HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AT BFD...THUS HAVE LLWS THERE.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AND LOWER CIG AT BFD THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN THERE...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR TODAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALONG THE FRONT.

LOOKING LIKE STORMY CONDITIONS FOR WED. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD HOLD OFF TIL AFTER 12Z WED.

WINDY ON THU...AS FAST MOVING DEEP LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
WED...MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN OR SNOW. WINDY LATE.
THU...STRONG/GUSTY NNW WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN