Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 261639
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1239 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak front will remain nearly stationary just south of the
Commonwealth through Wednesday. High pressure will return for mid
week with continued warm temperatures. An area of low pressure
approaching from the west is likely to lift through the region on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

The weak cold front south of the Mason Dixon line is acting to
focus some clouds over southern Pa and even a few light showers
just south of the border. RAP meso anal shows CAPEs in excess of
1000J over the border counties, however drier air filtering
slowly southward has led to a decease in dewpoints as well as the
overall CAPE also.

Warm-dry air aloft should help and keep showers out of the bulk of
the region today into the evening. The HRRR wants to sneak some
remnant midwestern convection into my far swrn zones just after
sundown, but confidence is not high for this.

Despite slightly lower dewpoints over central PA today...it will
still be quite warm and humid with highs ranging from the lower
80s north to the lower 90s south...where Apparent Temps will
reach the upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Rich deep layer moisture remains pooled south of the Mason Dixon
line tonight and Wednesday...providing dry conditions overall.
Mid to high level convective debris from the midwest and Ohio
Valley may filter the sky from time to time particularly on
Wednesday...and there is a better chance of an afternoon or
evening thunderstorm Wed aftn along the Maryland border over
southern portions of the Laurel Highlands and south Central
Mountains. Elsewhere it should remain dry and very warm.

Lows tonight should reach the comfortable mid to upper 50s
northwest...ranging to the muggy lower 70s southeast. highs
Wednesday will be a few ticks higher than Tuesday across the north
and generally unchanged south...and will range from the mid 80s
north to the lower 90s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a
cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as
several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot
temperatures shifts west.

The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to
retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing
northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing
across the northeast states.

Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just
south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front
supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the
Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This
looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with
showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further
support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low
temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above
normal, especially across southern sections of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

All terminals are VFR and will continue into the overnight before
more patchy fog forms late night into the early hours of
Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...

WED...Patchy early fog, otherwise mainly VFR.

THU-SAT...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Neither Harrisburg nor Williamsport reached/exceeded their record
max on Monday (7/25).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/La Corte
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Dangelo/La Corte
CLIMATE...


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