Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021747
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AS OF 0845 UTC, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE UNDERWAY ACROSS
COMANCHE, BARBER, AND CLARK COUNTY, TIED MOST CLOSELY TO A ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AT AROUND 750MB STRETCHING FROM THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
HIRES CONVECTIVE- ALLOWING MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS QUITE WELL IN
THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AND QPF FIELDS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 1200 UTC, SO
WE WILL TAPER THE POPS DOWN AROUND THIS TIME. EARLIER IN THE
SHIFT, WE ADDED SOME AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER IN A ZONE OF SATURATED SURFACE AIR NORTH OF THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW. ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS SHOULD ERODE NOT TOO LONG
AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE MORNING NORTH OF THE 850MB LOW. THIS MAY THROW A BIT OF A
CURVE BALL IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY, SO WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN
(USING A MODIFIED HRRR SOLUTION) OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS KEEPING A LID IN THE WARM-
UP. ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE COMPLETELY BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. BY EARLY EVENING, SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY HEAD UP INTO BARBER COUNTY AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE SOME AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNSET. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE WILL
SUPPORT RENEWED SEVERE WEATHER RISK, EVEN WITH ELEVATED STORMS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST, AT LEAST ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES TO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SEE SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES, AS THE
UPPER JET LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
ALLOWING THE LARGE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PROVIDE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE, FULL INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN BREAKING DOWN
THIS PATTERN BY THURSDAY AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LEADING COOLER AIR SURGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION COULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS WELL WITH THIS COLD FRONT FEATURE, BUT UPPER
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LACKING. THE
UPPER JET WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE
ADDITONAL CHANCES FOR POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS, BUT PERHAPS
JUST POST SURFACE FRONTAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

A SLOW WARMING TREND IS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO
RENEWED LEE TROUGHING AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS A
RESULT, THE WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT GCK/DDC TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND LATER TONIGHT, A RETURN TO LOW CIGS AND FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  68  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  82  67 100  71 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  85  66  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  86  69 100  72 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  86  67  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
P28  89  72  98  74 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



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