Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291853
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
153 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are likely
across portions of western and central Kansas tonight as a series
of H5 vort maxima continue to lift northeast across the Western
High Plains within a conveyor belt of tropical moisture. Short
range models show the H5 vort maxima cycling around a weak upper
low situated across the Four Corners Region while broad upper
level ridging remains in control across the southeastern CONUS. As
the flow aloft becomes increasingly difluent overnight, a +70kt
jet core is projected to climb northeast across the Western High
Plains with an a right entry region setting up generally across
western Kansas. Although instability will remain fairly modest
(generally under 1000 J/Kg), periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected through early Tuesday. Factoring in
the high amounts of QPF with PW values in excess of 1.5 inches,
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible increasing the
potential for localized flooding.

Little change to the overall air mass is expected tonight while
surface dewpoints remain generally in the 60s(F). So look for lows
back down into the mid to upper 60s(F) overnight with the lower
70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. With widespread precip
and cloud cover likely through early Tuesday, highs may struggle
to reach the 80s(F) across western and portions of central Kansas
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Precip chances will continue through at least mid week even as a
building upper level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward out
of the Intermountain West into the Northern and Western High
Plains. The tropical plume mentioned in the early term will
continue to provide ample moisture in the mid/upper levels while a
southeasterly upslope flow redevelops across western Kansas in
wake of a weak frontal passage Monday night/early Tuesday.
Regardless of a prevailing weak flow aloft, enough instability
will be present to support possible showers and thunderstorms
across much of the area Wednesday with a shift in focus to the
south and west on Thursday as the frontal boundary sets up from
the Texas Panhandle northwestward into eastern Colorado.

Temperatures are not likely to vary much with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs are expected to remain near
to possibly a little below normal depending on precip coverage and
cloud cover. In general, highs can be expected to reach the
80s(F) with lows in the 60s(F) through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Showers and a few possible isolated thunderstorms will spread
northward across western Kansas through early Tuesday morning
increasing the potential for brief periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys
in the vicinity of all TAF sites during the period. Light winds
generally out of the southeast will persist through early Tuesday
as surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  65  84  64 /  60  60  60  60
GCK  82  63  82  63 /  60  60  60  60
EHA  80  62  81  62 /  60  50  60  60
LBL  82  63  82  63 /  60  60  60  60
HYS  83  65  81  64 /  60  60  60  60
P28  87  68  86  68 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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