Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 052310
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Temperatures were rising faster than the forecast T curve early
this morning, and a change to the Experimental HRRR appears to
have captures the temperature forecast a little better in the
midday. It may be a couple of degrees overdone as it is warmer
than all the other guidance/blends, however with it being early
May now the warming can last later in the day. The forecast high
was generally bumped about 3 degrees over the area. The surface
high will continue to give way to gradual troughing over eastern
Colorado and the extreme western counties overnight. Much more
breezy conditions to  marginally windy conditions can be expected
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Continued focus exists on the weekend for severe weather
potential. Saturday and Sunday present somewhat different pattern
recognition setups with marginal shear on Saturday, increasing by
Sunday as the upper jet advances into the central High Plains.
CAPES appear moderate on Saturday, and a few hail and wind
producing severe storms could develop near the dryline in this
marginal shear environment. The ECMWF is the model that pushes the
dryline almost out of our forecast area on Sunday afternoon
before convection initiation, while the GFS was far more emphatic
with convection occurring farther west. Many characteristics of
the mesoscale are as of yet unknown, however thunderstorms are
probable this weekend. The best chance for the most widespread
severe and especially tornadic threat would be more likely farther
north where the models are in agreement with placement of the warm
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
afternoon. Southeast winds 5 to 15kt will persist tonight as surface
high pressure in eastern Kansas and Missouri drops southward into
the Ark-La-Tex Region. Winds will become more southerly mid to
late Friday morning while increasing to around 20 to 30kt as a lee
side trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  59  84 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  54  88  57  83 /   0  10  10  30
EHA  51  85  55  82 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  53  87  57  85 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  52  87  60  82 /   0  10  10  50
P28  54  86  60  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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