Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241228 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Issued at 628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Update for new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow is still on its way for northwest Wisconsin today into
tonight. The Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for northwest Wisconsin except Douglas and
Burnett counties.

Low pressure was located in northeast Missouri as of 09Z and the
models have a good handle on this. Most of the models agree on
moving this low into southwest lower Michigan by 00Z Saturday and
over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. The low will then continue north
through the day Saturday. Area radars were showing snow was
lifting north toward Price/Sawyer Counties as of 0930Z. A strong
period of FGEN forcing was partially responsible for the snow and
is forecast to be over parts of northern Wisconsin this morning
before weakening and moving east later this afternoon. In addition
to the forcing from the low pressure system and FGEN, there will
be lake processes as well. North to northeast winds this morning
will back to north to northwest tonight before becoming west to
northwest Saturday afternoon. We did lower the snowfall forecast
and there will likely be a sharp gradient on the west side. Little
snow is expected across Pine/Burnett counties with amounts
increasing to 5 to 9 inches from Price County north to Iron
County. There may be some lake effect snow bringing up to an inch
or so to northern Douglas County today. Gusty northerly winds will
lead to some blowing and drifting as well as the snow piles up.

The snow will diminish from west to east tonight but continue to
be likely over the snowbelt of Ashland/Iron Counties into Saturday
morning. As winds back on Saturday the chance for lake effect
snow will diminish.

Highs today will be in the twenties for most areas then range
from the 20 to 30 on Saturday with the warmest temperatures from
the Brainerd Lakes region to Siren.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main challenges for the long term include periodic snow
chances through the weekend and early next week followed by a
potential storm system Monday night through Wednesday morning.

A few lingering lake effect snow showers may affect northwest
Wisconsin Saturday evening in the wake of the departing winter
storm. A weak shortwave trough will move across northern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin late overnight and Sunday as a broad
ridge of high pressure over the Middle and Lower Mississippi River
Valley prevents any return flow ahead of the clipper. The trough
will be accompanied by a modest plume of Pacific moisture and may
squeeze out a few snow showers. Accumulations should be light,
generally less than an inch. A more subtle trough may follow the
clipper Sunday night with a slight chance of a few flakes in far
northern Minnesota. Temperatures through the remainder of the
weekend into Monday will trend near normal. Overnight lows
Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the single digits to
teens above zero. Daytime highs Sunday will reach the 20s to low

Attention then shifts to a deeper trough of low pressure digging
into the West Coast Sunday night and Monday. The approach of the
trough will shift the mid-level flow to quasi-zonal for Monday,
allowing a return to much above normal temperatures. South to
southwesterly winds in the low- and mid-levels will bring
additional moisture along with the warmer temperatures. As the
trough moves across the Rockies, look for lee cyclogenesis over
southern Colorado. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions
diverge rapidly by late Monday night and early Tuesday. The
surface low is forecast to track generally eastward across the
Western Great Lakes or Upper Midwest and will likely bring a swath
of accumulating snow to the region. As we observed with the
handling of the current system, the wide spread in solutions leads
to low confidence in any particular outcome. Anyone with travel
plans Monday night through Wednesday is encouraged to keep up with
the forecast as new information is incorporated.

In the wake of the early/midweek system, the mid-level pattern
will shift to a fast northwest flow. The deterministic models each
feature a shortwave trough diving southeast from Alberta and into
the western Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. That
system may bring another brief period of snow to the Northland.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

MVFR ceilings were found at HYR and DLH this morning due to lake
effect processes. Expect the lower ceilings to persist at both
sites until winds veer away from Lake Superior. Light snow is
expected to move into HYR this morning and intensify this
afternoon. Most of the snow, along with much lower visibility,
will be found east of HYR including PBH and possibly ASX. A few
lake effect snow showers may drift through DLH today, but
confidence is low and visibility reductions should be limited. A
few snow showers may affect INL late this afternoon and tonight.
Opted for VCSH at INL and DLH due to low confidence. Low pressure
departs the region beginning tonight. Cool air advection behind
the departing low and a tightening pressure gradient will raise
wind speeds and gusts tonight through Saturday morning. There is a
potential for LLWS at BRD after 25.06Z. Confidence in this
forecast package is average.


DLH  23  10  25  14 /  20  10   0  30
INL  21   5  22   5 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  26  11  31  18 /  10   0   0  30
HYR  27  12  27  16 /  80  60  10  30
ASX  26  15  28  17 /  70  70  20  50


WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004-008-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ002-007.



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