Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KEAX 131136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Cold airmass has settled into the region this morning with readings
in the teens and single digits. With increasing clouds today and
easterly low-level flow, temperatures will remain seasonably cold
with highs only in the 20s and even teens across parts of northern
and central MO.

A weak upper wave currently moving into Washington State will rapidly
drop southeast today, reaching far northern Missouri by sunrise
Sunday morning. While the upper wave itself is rather weak, stronger
low-level dynamics will provide adequate lift for some light
accumulating snow across parts of northern and central Missouri
tonight into early Sunday. Combination of deep isentropic ascent and
upper-level support should get the atmosphere saturated fairly
quickly despite a fairly significant dry layer around 850 hpa
initially. However, the fast-moving nature of the system will keep
snowfall amounts fairly limited with generally less than an inch
across all areas to the north and east of the KC metro. The exception
may be near and just northeast of Kirksville where snowfall
forecasts are in the one to two inch range.

As the system departs Sunday morning, veering flow will usher in
quick warm air advection while moisture starts to dry out in the
middle and upper troposphere. This combo of low-level isentropic
ascent and shallow moisture could set the stage for some light
freezing drizzle, mainly across areas to the southwest of the
accumulating snowfall including eastern KS and western MO. For now,
low-level ascent looks limited enough to keep any freezing drizzle
patchy in nature so that any icing would be very light. Not expecting
any significant travel problems at this time but it will bear
watching.

Warm air advection Sunday morning will set the stage for much warmer
temperatures by Sunday afternoon, with some areas near and south of
the KC metro approaching 50 degrees. Temperatures will rise a few
degrees further into the lower 50s for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another weak wave will drop into the region Monday night and Tuesday,
but thermal profiles this time will support mostly rain with perhaps
some very light snow over far northern MO.

Northwest upper flow will eventually give way to broad ridging
across much of the nation toward the end of the work week. This will
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across eastern KS and western
MO by Thursday, and across the entire area on Friday. It wouldn`t be
surprising to see a few 70 degree readings either day given 850 hPa
temps forecast to rise to between 10C and 15C, very warm for mid
February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Mid-level cloud deck will lower a bit through the day but remain VFR.
Meanwhile east-northeast winds will become more easterly and then
east-southeasterly shortly after sunrise. An area of light snow will
track across northern and northeast Missouri overnight with minor
accumulations for areas near Kirksville and Chillicothe. This
activity should mostly miss the STJ and KC terminals, although a few
snowflakes or even patchy freezing drizzle is possible toward
sunrise. For now the odds of this occurring at any given location is
low enough that precipitation was not added to the TAFs in these
locations and instead opted for VCSH.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.