822
FXUS63 KEAX 142006
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread triple digit heat indices ranging from 100-105 F on
  Wednesday.

- Low end chances for strong to severe storms late Wednesday
  into early Thursday. Strong to damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall will be the main threats.

- Unsettled pattern with multiple chances for showers and storms
  continues into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Near seasonal temperatures anticipated for today and tomorrow with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Steady southerly flow will allow
temperatures to be slightly warmer tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon, a
subtle shortwave moving through southern MO combined with
differential daytime heating and no convective inhibition will
result in a chance for a few pop-up thunderstorms. The more
favorable areas will be south of I-70 as suggested by the HRRR and
other CAMs. No severe weather is anticipated at this time with these
storms. Limited CAPE suggests the potential for weak updrafts. Non-
existent shear will keep storms short-lived. The main threat will be
gusty winds and small hail. Once daytime heating subsides, storms
will begin to fizzle out.

Late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, a H500 shortwave moves
through the flow producing chances for showers and thunderstorms
(25%-35%) mainly across northern MO. The HRRR and NAMNST agree on
the development of an MCS in NE tracking to the east-southeast over
southern IA and northern MO. Weak shear, limited CAPE and an overall
unfavorable environment for severe storms over our area should keep
storms sub-severe during this time. Isolated gusty winds will likely
be main threat.

Wednesday afternoon, a H925 thermal ridge over the western U.S. will
shift to the east approaching our area. Deep diurnal mixing and
southerly winds at the surface will allow temperatures to reach the
low to mid 90s across the area with dew points in the low to mid
70s. This will result in heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to
low 100s across the area. One or two areas may see 105 degree heat
indices (heat advisory level criteria), but these conditions are not
anticipated to be widespread and uncertainty exists. Some
uncertainty exists with these temperatures depending on how much
clearing takes place after the round of showers and storms in the
morning. Looking at the LREF, best chances of exceeding 104 degree
heat indices will be in northeastern KS (less than 10%). We will
continue to monitor future guidance, however heat headlines appear
unlikely at this time.

Another H500 shortwave and its accompanying surface cyclone will
help to push a surface boundary through the area late Wednesday into
Thursday. A few storms could be strong to severe. CAPE values range
from 2,000-3,000 J/kg displaying the potential for strong updrafts.
However, shear will continue to be the limiting factor with only 20-
30 kts struggling to aid in storm organization. The primary threats
will be strong to damaging winds. PWATs exceeding 2 inches suggest
the potential for efficient rain-producing storms. Some of the
strongest storms could produce brief heavy rainfalls. Weak MBE
vectors oriented more parallel to the surface boundary suggest the
potential for training storms which could lead to isolated flooding
concerns. A weak H850 low-level jet intensifies and noses into our
area, which could add just enough shear and instability to keep
storms lingering into early Thursday. SPC has issued a Day 3
marginal (1/5) risk from Leavenworth to Kirksville and north.

A few uncertainties remain regarding the location of convective
development as well as timing of the surface boundary. Also,
outflows from previous convection could add even more difficulty to
the forecast when it comes to location of thunderstorm development.
Also, if the H850 low-level jet is stronger than anticipated, storms
could present a higher severe risk.

For the second half of this week into next week, additional chances
for storms prevail with multiple shortwaves moving through the flow.
Concerning temperatures, the potential for triple digit indices
returns this weekend into early next week as our winds remain out of
the southwest. However, multiple rounds of showers and storms could
add more uncertainty (noted by the larger temperature spreads
between ensemble members) to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds
will mostly range from calm up to 5-7 knots. Went with SCT040
to account for the diurnal cu fields developing with daytime
heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier