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000
FXUS63 KEAX 171948
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

A beautiful afternoon across the Lwr Missouri Vly as high pressure
remains in control for the time being. Afternoon temps have
warmed into the lower 80s across most areas, with noticeably less
humidity thanks to drier air following last night`s frontal
passage. Similar conditions should persist through the overnight
hours with lows fall into into the lower 60s for most. Next wave
of energy seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon digging
across the Northern Rockies. With time, this feature will continue
tracking to the east-southeast through the overnight hours with
model projections suggesting main surface reflection will pass to
our north through the afternoon hours on Friday. This will
ultimately result in a weak boundary lifting north across the area
with scattered shwr/storm chances Friday morning, with additional
activity possible during the afternoon hours as associated cold
front passes later in the day. For now, best severe potential
looks to hold off until after 21z as wind fields aloft should be
increasing during this timeframe as main trough axis passes just
to our north. Given this scenario and the expected instability,
the current SPC day 2 marginal risk may get elevated with future
outlooks.

Beyond this, drier weather looks to return for much of the day on
Saturday with another round of nocturnal convection possible early
Sunday morning as the stage becomes set for an active mid range
forecast period as zonal flow returns to the central U.S. Under
this flow pattern, several midlevel shortwaves look to impact the
region towards the early to middle portions of next week.
Obviously this is going to lead to potential impacts for Monday`s
total solar eclipse and additional details are provided below.
Regardless, chance pops appear reasonable through much of next
week as forecast guidance continues to suggest a stalled frontal
boundary interacting with the above referenced midlevel
disturbances.

&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

Unfortunately models this afternoon continue to paint a fairly
pessimistic outlook for Monday`s total solar eclipse event. All
three mid-range models show a decaying MCS to some extent
somewhere across northern Missouri and southern Iowa Monday
morning, with additional storm activity possible during the
afternoon hours. Either scenario would lead to lingering cloud
cover over the Lwr Missouri Valley during the early afternoon
hours, however uncertainty still remains on the overall cloud
coverage which is common this time of year with overnight
convection.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high
pressure remains in control of the local weather pattern. NW winds
of 10-15 mph this afternoon will weaken this evening due to
nocturnal cooling. Midlevel clouds will be on the increase
tomorrow morning as a weak storm system approaches, however any
shwr activity should be in a weakening state which precludes
mention for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Eclipse...32