Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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476
FXUS63 KEAX 191731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1131 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2018

Broad southwest flow leading to ample warm air advection this
morning as high pressure continues sliding into the Deep South
and pressure falls occur well off to our west. Considering a fair
amount of snow as able to melt yesterday, combined with strong
southwest winds of 12-18 mph along with higher gusts, today is
shaping up to be pretty warm for mid-January standards. Quick look
at fcst soundings reveals significant warming aloft with 850 temps
progged to reach 2-3 standard deviations above normal this
afternoon. Despite what appears to be a strong subsidence
inversion, gusty southwest winds may be able to mix some of this
warmer air aloft down to the surface. Given this possibility,
have increased highs a few degrees today with upper 40s to lower
50s expected across most areas, however a few mid-50s will be
possible across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Warm air
advection expected to continue overnight with lows only expected
to fall the lower to middle 30s, which should feel warm
considering temperatures of recent weeks.

Heading into the weekend, focus quickly turns upstream to the next
strong Pacific storm system expected to begin working through the
Great Basin on Saturday. Meanwhile downstream across the central
U.S., broad southerly flow will prevail across the lower and mid-
Mississippi Vly with increasing moisture advection thanks to a
wide open Gulf of Mexico. Latest NAM and GFS PWAT anomaly
graphics suggest values of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
by 00z Sunday, with drizzle possible across the area on Saturday
thanks to modest isentropic ascent along a northward lifting
boundary. Saturday by no means should be a washout, but low
clouds will likely keep temps a little cooler than Friday.

Fcst becomes much more interesting as we head into Sunday and
especially Sunday night as a aforementioned trough leads to
strong leeside low development across the High Plains of southeast
Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle. With time, this feature is
expected to lift northeast through the day on Sunday before
swinging a strong cold front through our area late Sunday
night/early Monday. Fcst models continue to indicate weak
instability ahead of the main cold front, which may lead to
isolated to scattered storm activity for areas primarily east of
the KC metro. With strong wind fields aloft, the stage is set for
a high shear/low CAPE environment which will have to be watched
closely in the coming days for isolated severe potential. In any
event however, models seem to be in excellent agreement that a
large chunk of our area will be dryslotted heading into Monday
morning, meaning there could be several hours with little or now
precip before rain gradually changes over to snow late Monday
morning and afternoon. That said, models continue to indicate best
QPF and forcing north of our area, meaning any snow that falls
should be light and mainly confined to areas north of the Missouri
River. There is some possibility for mixed precip across far
northwest Missouri, however models seem to be struggling with the
location of the dryslot which will have big implications to
P-type. Hopefully with time, these issues will be resolved, but
current indications suggest this event should be fairly minor in
nature.

Beyond this, cooler air will move back into the area Monday night
with dry conditions largely persisting through the end of the work
week. Despite the cooling trend, temps should remain near normal
for this time of year with little hope for precip until next
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2018

The TAFs will remain VFR with a SW wind around 10-15kts through
the majority of the forecast period until a push of lower level
moisture reaches the area tomorrow morning. An IFR ceiling looks
to push into the area around sunrise tomorrow, although there is
some uncertainty to the timing and height of this cloud deck. The
timeframe for IFR looks to occur between 11-16Z with cloud bases
between 400 and 800ft possible. Due to this occurring towards the
end of the forecast the TAFs went on the conservative side with
time and height. This may be adjusted in further forecasts with
higher confidence either way.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Barham



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