Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231130

630 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is moving across
Kansas and Nebraska in response to warm air advection over that
region. This WAA is associated with an upper level low over the
Dakotas and an associated low-level jet over KS/NE which is expected
to shift eastward into northeast KS and western IA/eastern NE by
later this afternoon. As such, expect precipitation to spread east
into these areas, likely impacting far northwest Missouri later this
afternoon. Could see a few very light showers or sprinkles make it as far
east as I-35, although a layer of dry air around 800 hPa will make it
difficult for this activity to reach the ground that far east. Could
see an uptick in precipitation over these same areas later tonight as
the primary upper trough axis approaches, although precipitation
amounts should be relatively light (quarter of an inch or less).
Soundings show a bit of elevated instability this evening and
overnight but with lapse rates close to moist adiabatic any
thunderstorm activity will be fairly weak and isolated in nature.

Upper level trough axis will swing through the area on Wednesday,
and some continued isentropic ascent could cause showers and
perhaps a couple of weak thunderstorms to linger into the afternoon,
once again mainly northwest of the I-35 corridor. Height rises across
the Plains behind this system will spell a subtle warming trend into
the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. GFS
suggests a weak piece of upper energy retrograding back westward
into the Plains later this week, but the area will remain under the
influence of deep low-level ridging over the Midwest so the latter
half of the week will remain dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

Large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms over KS/NE will slowly
spread east today and tonight but will have difficulty making it
much further east than at TOP to STJ line. KC area only expected to
see a few showers later tonight on the eastern edge of this activity
with better chances for thunderstorms staying to the west. Any
thunderstorms that do make it this far east are not expected to pose
significant aviation hazards.




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