Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 282327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Tonight...

Positive tilted shortwave trough as noted in satellite imagery from
IA through KS will slide east tonight. Scattered convection will
form along an associated cold front within a moderately
unstable airmass....at least it will be into the early evening
hours.

A narrow band of convection has finally formed over east
central KS where MLCAPES between 1500-2000J/kg are noted. Further
northeast VFR ceilings within the warm sector have pretty much
capped intense convection as radar shows sputtering area of low
topped showers. The east central KS activity may be the only region
which develops deep convection, albeit the non-severe variety. Will
hit PoPs highest over northern and west central counties until a few
hours after sunset. Thereafter expect a fairly quick drop off in
intensity and coverage as instability hits the skids. Believe the
trend of the HRRR and 12z NAM looks reasonable. QPF will also be
muted. Could see isolated showers form after the passage of the
frontal convection and last into the pre-dawn hours.

Saturday - Sunday...

The above shortwave is expected to flounder over the Mid MO Valley
over the weekend. The h7 shortwave trough will be slow to exit the
CWA resulting in a general region of uvv over the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA. Thinking there will be sufficient breaks in the overcast such
that isolated instability showers/storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon over parts of northeast and central MO. Current
temperature forecast may be a bit too optimistic should the
afternoon clouds fail to break up.

Sunday looks dry with a slight warm-up as the mid level trough
washes out.

Monday - Friday...

The operational models transition to a broadening southwesterly flow
pattern after the upper level ridge axis leans over into the Central
Plains. This will allow warmer more seasonal temperatures and
humidity back into the region. While the h7 temperatures don`t get
overly hot and cap off the environment a lack of any discernible
mid/upper level wave or surface boundaries will greatly limit the
rain chances. As such will go with a dry forecast until some feature
of significance is picked up by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Line of convection along approaching cold front beginning to
dissipate this evening. As such...have decided to play a wait and see
approach by maintaining a VCTS mention for now. Its conceivable much
of the precip will pass north of KC area terminals. Otherwise...main
concern heading into the early morning hrs will be the possibility of
developing low stratus. Models seem pretty insistent on this
possibility...but the main question is whether low cigs will extend
far enough south to impact the KC terminals. For now...have offered a
SCT008 mention at MCI...and will reevaluate with the 6z package after
00z model guidance arrives.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32



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