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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230448
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the TAF period.
Light east southeast winds will increase out of the southeast between
12z-14z Wednesday, then will become sustained at 18 to 20 kts with
gusts between 25-30 kts during the afternoon. Winds will remain
sustained at 15 to 20 kts through at least 06z, but gustiness may
diminish a bit after sunset. A few isolated showers and weak,
embedded storms are possible across far northern Missouri and
northeast Kansas toward daybreak, but no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin