Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 061127
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
427 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION
WITH A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORIGINATE OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
TRAVEL WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY POSSIBLY IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WEAKENING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE HRRR INDICATES THERE WILL
BE AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION SPINNING UP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. EXPECT STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW
AND BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A WARMING TREND TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMING/DRYING TREND
UNFOLDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SURPASS
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND BRINGS WARMER, DRY AIR
TO COASTAL REGIONS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE FLOW PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO PARTS THE COAST.
LITTLE CHANGES WERE OTHERWISE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. ALTHO KCEC
IS PRESENTLY SOCKED IN WITH 1SM VISIBILITY IN FOG... HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE PROGGING INCREASING OFFSHORE...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...FLOW
AT KCEC. THIS SHOULD BE ENUF TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR LONGER
AT KACV. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP AT KUKI. MID CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RADIATIVE COOLING...AND LIMITED SURROUNDING OBS DON`T
INDICATE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMOVE LOW CEILING WITH NEXT TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT KCEC DURING THE AFTERNOON. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. HAVE EXTENDED ALL HEADLINES ANOTHER 6
HOURS OR SO. THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THRU LATE
TONIGHT...THE S OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING CONTINUE THRU SAT MORNING...AND THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THRU SAT AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE N OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL MORE UNIFORMLY DIMINISH BY
NEXT TUE. SHORT PERIOD...STEEP WAVES WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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