Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 111741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES. NUMERICAL MODELS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT FORECAST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW HAVE INCLUDED 6SM AT BOTH SAT/SSF TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH


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