Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
10Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES AND BRINGS IN MOIST GULF AIR. IFR
CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KDRT AND LEAST LIKELY AT KAUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OR RISE TO VFR AFTER 17Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN HAS KEPT CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY DIFFERENCE OF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTS STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD UP TO DEL RIO
AND EVENTUALLY UP ON THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LOW LEVEL HOWEVER AND THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEEKEND OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SFC MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK
H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGHING MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CWA. ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC MENTION.

BY MID DAY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
AND ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY EAST WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER. THIS SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE
COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP...PERHAPS SUSPICIOUSLY TOO
RAPIDLY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD WARM LOWS UP INTO THE 40S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE
WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PREVENTS
MUCH DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS PRODUCES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH DEVELOPS SUBSTANTIAL QPF. EURO IS ESSENTIALLY A POLAR
OPPOSITE. SO TO PREVENT BEING THE BOY WHO CRIED RAIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THIS...HIGHLY DUBIOUS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              43  70  53  78  62 /   0   0  -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  40  71  52  78  61 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     43  72  52  78  62 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  68  50  75  59 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  70  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  68  52  77  59 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  70  47  76  51 /   0   0  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        42  71  52  77  61 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  71  56  78  63 /   0  -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  71  52  76  64 /   0   0  -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  72  52  77  63 /   0   0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





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