Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 081014
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
414 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
The long awaited cold front is pushing south through Central Texas
this morning with plenty of gusto. Gusty winds already this
morning behind the front to 30 mph have been observed so it looks
like the Wind Advisory will be right on track. The colder drier
air should arrive in the Austin area right around 12Z likely
meaning the high temperature has already been reached this
morning for northern areas. Throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, a tight pressure gradient behind the front will keep
winds in the 20-30 mph sustained range with gusts potentially as
high as 40 mph. The gradient relaxes around mid afternoon bringing
winds below the 26 mph threshold for the wind advisory, hence the
expiration time of 22Z.

On radar, an area of very light returns was currently located
north of the CWA. The suite of hi-res models keep this area of
light precip well to the north of the CWA and deteriorate this
substantially through the morning hours. As such, have lowered any
mentionable PoPs beyond 18Z today.

As winds decrease overnight, temperatures should continue to
decrease and fall into the 20s for the Plateau, Hill Country and
northern half of the CWA. While lingering cloud cover could
prevent some areas in the far southern zones from realizing
freezing temps, most areas will likely see at least 32 degrees by
Friday morning. Planning on a Freeze Warning for much of the
remaining counties in the CWA but held off on this shift due to
potential NPW product complications. Will handle with an SPS for
now.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Surface winds swing back to the southeast as the surface ridge
moves northeast Saturday allowing low level moisture advection to
begin and set up another overrunning pattern for late Saturday
night and Sunday. While models are depicting some QPF generation
across the eastern half of the CWA due to a strong LLJ, believe
that due to the shallow moisture profile, only light rain or
drizzle will be the most likely scenario early Sunday.

Considerable model discrepancy exists towards mid week with the
handling of a cold front passage. At this time, the GFS is
significantly more bullish with the evolution and magnitude of the
front advertised whereas ECMWF/Canadian do not depict nearly as
significant a front. Seeking clarity in ensembles of both the ECM
and MEN have proved to be futile with 10-20 degree low temperature
separation in the hi/low members. Thus have gone with a consensus
blend for this time period until more clarity can be afforded in
later model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              42  29  46  36  50 /  10  -    0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  44  28  46  34  52 /  10  -    0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  30  47  35  51 /  10  -    0   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            39  26  44  33  50 /  20  -    0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           45  31  46  34  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        40  27  44  34  50 /  20  -    0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             47  30  48  36  50 /  10  -    0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        44  29  46  35  51 /  10  -    0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   46  30  47  37  55 /  10  -    0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       45  32  47  37  51 /  10  -    0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           47  32  48  37  51 /  10  -    0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for the following
counties: Bastrop...Bexar...Caldwell...Comal...Gonzales...
Guadalupe...Hays...Lee...Medina...Travis...Williamson...Wilson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.