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000
FXUS64 KEWX 170444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL MOVE TO
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND BY SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A LAYER OF LOW VFR CLOUDS TO
AREAS EAST OF KJCT TO KSAT TO KVCT LINE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND SKC. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND TURN TO NWLY BY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
TO SLY ALONG RIO GRANDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ON A GENERAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND
CLOUDS...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE
CLOUDS DECREASE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR WRAP-AROUND
CEILINGS SPREADING S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE IMPACT MAY RESULT
IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMP ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES. OUT TO
THE NW...THE LATEST LOOK AT MODEL WIND DECOUPLING SUGGEST A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN THE NW HILL COUNTRY/SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU
COULD SEE A BRIEF FREEZING TEMPERATURE. MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
DECOUPLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN TO TEXAS COASTAL BEND
BY SUNRISE AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. THIS
LOW WILL BRING A LAYER OF LOW VFR CLOUDS TO AREAS EAST OF KJCT TO
KSAT TO KVCT LINE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS
TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR NE OF KBMQ TO KGYB LINE. THE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
LEAVING SKC. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST AREAS
WILL MAINTAIN NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND TURN NWLY LATER THIS EVENING OUT
WEST AND KDRT WITH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE I-35
TAFS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO SLY ALONG RIO GRANDE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE
REMAINS BREEZY TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE
SUBSIDENCE/SINKING/DRY SIDE. SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION BUT OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY TO
CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. A COOL START IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH UPPER 30S AND NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 (THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA).

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A
DRY-LINE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 ELSEWHERE. THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BRING A COOL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE MORNINGS
(POSSIBLY LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE) AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOONS.

FOR FRIDAY...MENTIONED CHANCE OF RAIN-SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
AND HAVE INCLUDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH.

FIRE WEATHER....
DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
CLEARING/WARMING OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO THE MID 20%. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CREATING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  67  44  81  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  66  36  80  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  67  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  67  42  78  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           40  76  45  87  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  65  41  77  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  72  41  86  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        38  65  40  79  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  62  42  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  70  45  84  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  69  43  83  51 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18