Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301635
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  40  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  40  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  30  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  40  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  50  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  40  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH


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