Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 291753 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A CHALLENGING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST
PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG A DRYLINE LINE. THERE IS
PLENTY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AROUND 21/22Z TO ABOUT 23Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD WITH SOME IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL PROBABLY
LOWER TO IFR /LIFR WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE I-35
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  64  82  63 /  60  30  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  82  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  87  61  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  91  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  87  62  80  61 /  50  20  10  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  65  85  65 /  40  20  10  10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  83  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  68  83  66 /  70  60  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  66  83  65 /  50  30  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  89  67  85  68 /  50  30  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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