Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES FOR CONVECTION HAVE LEFT OUT OF KDRT TAF. DID INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. DRIER AIR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION LATER TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FURTHER DECREASE IN
CONVECTION. WILL SEE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z-16Z THIS
MORNING THEN VFR. LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z-11Z
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE E/SE AT 7-10 KNOTS TODAY THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PLENTY OF MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC
STORM ODILE AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC STORM POLO
ARE STILL IN THE VICINITY...PW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
OUR AREA... ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/3. THIS DOESN/T MEAN AN
END TO THE RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STEP DOWN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM FRIDAY. MANY MORE LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY OR
RECEIVE 1/10 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DOWNPOURS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE CONVECTION ALLOWING MESOSCALE MODELS POINT TOWARD
A PEAK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER STEP DOWN IN CONVECTION TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. POPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
MOSTLY BE FOCUSED ON THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY...
BUT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE DECIDED TO PLACE SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTAL PLAINS AS
THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE REMNANT OF THE FRONT
MONDAY...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY...TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES...THEN ISOLATED STORMS FOR MAINLY THE RIO GRANDE AND
COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOIST GULF FLOW RETURNS
AND THE RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN BY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  71  91  69  91 /  40  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  69  92  68  91 /  40  20  -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  71  92  69  93 /  40  30  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  90  69  90 /  40  20  10  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  88  71  88 /  30  30  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  70  91  69  91 /  40  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  72  92  68  93 /  30  30  20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  70  91  68  91 /  40  20  10  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  71  92  70  92 /  40  20  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  73  92  71  92 /  40  30  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  92  70  93 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26




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