Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 291714
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



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