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000
FXUS64 KEWX 071305
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
TO ADD SNOW FLURRIES TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL AREA OF SNOW FLURRIES IS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF CENTRAL
TEXAS AND WILL REACH WILLIAMSON COUNTY SHORTLY. HAVE ADDED SNOW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING FOR WILLIAMSON...NORTHERN BURNET...AND
EXTREME NORTHERN TRAVIS COUNTIES. CURRENT REPORTS OUT OF CENTRAL
TEXAS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS NOT ACCUMULATING. ROADS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

AVIATION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. CLOUDS DECKS HAVE ADVECTED IN FROM SOUTH
TEXAS AND WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIODS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WHILE AUS HAS BEEN IN
MVFR ALL NIGHT THE SAT/SSF SITES ARE JUST NOW PICKING UP SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FT. FEEL THESE SHOULD GO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. BRING IN DRT MVFR LATER AROUND NOON ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE IT COME IN BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY KEEP A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THOUGH THE TAF PERIODS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
DRT WHERE WINDS WILL VEER QUICKER AND BECOME SE BY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRIER AIR IS ENTERING THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE
TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL PULL
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS...BUT THE DRYING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL EVAPORATE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TODAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MIX IN WITH THE COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY...ONLY
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH NEW RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PLUMMET INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA (RECORD LOWS FOR DECEMBER 8TH ARE
ALSO LISTED BELOW).

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
ENABLE A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY/ADJACENT
NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE
TO DROP BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE LAST
AREA-WIDE FREEZE...WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE MID-UPPER 30S BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY.

THE MOISTENING TREND AND UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST.

CLIMATE...

RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 7:

AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...36/1972
AUSTIN BERGSTROM....40/1972
SAN ANTONIO.........41/1972
DEL RIO.............41/1960

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 8:

AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...23/2005
AUSTIN BERGSTROM....23/2011
SAN ANTONIO.........25/1917
DEL RIO.............23/2005

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              32  24  49  34  45 /  10  10  -   -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  31  23  49  33  44 /  10  10  -   -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     35  26  49  37  46 /  -   10  -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            27  20  47  32  42 /  10  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  26  52  38  54 /  -    0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        31  21  48  31  42 /  20  10  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  24  53  38  50 /  -   -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  25  49  36  45 /  -   10  -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   34  30  47  41  48 /  30  20  10  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  26  51  40  47 /  -   10  -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  27  53  39  49 /  -   10  -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25