Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
696 FXUS64 KEWX 140603 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 103 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .Key Messages - Flood Watch extended until 9 PM for the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Travis/Williamson Counties - A quick additional inch or two of rainfall possible within the watch area with isolated higher totals of 3 to 5 inches. May see additional river rises possible. - Drier regime mid to late week with slightly higher temperatures && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The latest observational, satellite, and radar trends indicate two MCVs nearby. One is located over Mexico hugging the Rio Grande while another is west of the Waco area. The MCV closer to Waco will be expected to move farther away and becomes less of an influence to our region today. However, the other MCV along the Rio Grande is now indicated by the latest CAMs to gradually lift northwards toward the Southern Edwards Plateau and Sonora region. Expect for the greatest rain and storm activity to remain most focused across our western areas during the overnight into early this morning with the MCV. However, recent runs of the short term CAM guidance also indicates that the MCV likely will help to rejuvenate additional rain and storm activity, especially during the peak daytime heating from late morning through early evening across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. While the 00Z HRRR run was the most aggressive and concerning with this solution, it is not alone on this idea. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible where a quick couple of inches may be possible in a short period of time and this would extend and exacerbate any flooding concerns over already saturated areas. With these concerns, we`ll elect to extend the Flood Watch until 9 pm tonight for the most saturated and recently flooded portions of the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and across Travis/Williamson counties. Where rain has been a bit more sparse farther south along I-35, we`ll drop a few counties from the watch, including Bexar County. Activity could extend into tonight before guidance shows a fading signal for activity from the overnight into Tuesday morning. Enough moisture lingers into Tuesday afternoon where isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may develop across the area with the help from daytime heating. Guidance is much less active on Tuesday and shows activity remaining diurnal and ending entering Tuesday night. The daytime highs remain slightly below average from the upper 80s into the mid 90s under partly clear to overcast conditions while overnight lows remain warm and humid in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A drier weather pattern establishes mid to late next week with the influence of ridging nudging westward into the area from the Gulf waters. Most areas should remain rain free outside from perhaps a stray to isolated shower or storm cell with the onshore flow and/or sea breeze. Best chance of this would be Thursday in the coastal plains. With the decrease in overall cloud cover and slightly stronger 500 mb heights, expect for a slight uptick in the daytime highs through the second half of the week and into the weekend. Right now, rain chances remain out of the forecast, but we`ll also monitor for the possible development of a tropical disturbance or inverted trough following behind in the wake of the upper level ridging that nudges to our area. This feature may slowly advance westward along/parallel to the northern Gulf coast towards and through the weekend. We continue to monitor to see if this feature gains additional model support within the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Some redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA is ongoing. Have VCSH mention for this evening into the overnight and will monitor for updates for prevailing or PROB30s. SHRA/TSRA are expected again on Monday. However, for now, PROBs are too low to mention. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions lowering to MVFR CIGs overnight into morning, then mixing to VFR Monday afternoon. Brief lowering of CIGs/VSBYs is possible in SHRA/TSRA. S to SE winds prevail with some gustiness near SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 92 75 94 75 / 30 20 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 75 93 74 / 30 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 75 94 74 / 30 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 73 90 73 / 40 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 76 93 77 / 30 30 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 74 93 73 / 30 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 75 93 75 / 30 20 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 74 94 74 / 30 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 75 93 75 / 30 10 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 76 94 76 / 30 20 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 96 76 / 30 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-Edwards- Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde- Williamson. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Brady Aviation...17