Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 202326 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions for this evening. Expect SCT low clouds to develop
09Z-10Z. With additional moisture will likely see BKN conditions at
KSAT/KSSF and have included a prevailing group for these locations.
KAUS more likely to remain SCT, so included a tempo group to cover
the few hours BKN conditions are expected. KDRT has the potential as
well to see a BKN layer so included a prevailing starting at 12Z.
After 15Z-16Z all terminals should return to SCT and become VFR once
again. Winds will be S-SE 9-12 knots through 05Z-06Z. KDRT will see
SE winds 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots through 02Z then
more easterly near 10 knots. All I-35 sites back to S/SE 8-12 knots
after 15Z-16Z Monday. KDRT will have SE winds 10-15 knots with gust
to around 20 knots after 18Z. Could see isolated convection nearing
the I-35 terminals after 20Z but confidence in location and timing
is low so have not included any mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Increased low level moisture is expected late this evening into
Monday as southerly flow dominates the region. This will keep lows in
the mid to upper 70s across much of the area with lower 70s over the
Hill Country. An upper level inverted-trough located over the
northern part of the Gulf this afternoon is forecast to move to the
west and into our area Monday and perhaps aid isolated
showers/storms across the coastal plains in the afternoon hours.
Some of the activity could get as far north to just east of
Interstate 35. Highs will run between the mid to upper 90s range.
Cloud coverage increases once again Monday night with overall lows
in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The upper level ridge dominating our region the past several days
moves to the west and weakens as the upper level trough/TUTT
continues to move to the west. This will bring another chance for
rain across the coastal plains and our southeast counties Tuesday
afternoon. By mid-week into early next weekend, chances for rain
increase across the entire local area as a cold front approaches the
region from the north in combination with the passage of several
short-wave disturbances. The Euro and Canadian solutions are more
aggressive with precipitation than the GFS through the extended
forecast period. At this time, will keep PoPs between 20 to 40
percent range for the Wednesday through Saturday period until
medium-range models have better agreement with the passing short-wave
disturbances and increased moisture(remnants of Harvey) entering the
southwest part of the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  76  98  76 /   0  10  10  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  98  75  98  74 /   0  10  10  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  75  98  74 /   0  10  10  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  73  95  75 /   0  10  -   10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 100  77  99  78 /   0  -    0  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  74  96  76 /   0  10  10  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             75  99  73  98  74 /   0  -   -   10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  75  98  74 /   0  10  10  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  76  98  75 /  -   20  10  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  97  76  97  76 /   0  10  -   10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  75  97  76 /   0  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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