Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 141121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.AVIATION...
A SMALL PATCH OF IFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT KSSF THROUGH 15Z. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
STORMS SHOULD STAY AT LEAST 50 MILES EAST OF THE I-35 TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A PROB30
FOR -SHRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR KAUS AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY... AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT LOW OVER EAST TX IS TRYING TO MOVE WEST INTO CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING...A SHARP SHEAR AXIS ALOFT OVER THIS AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW
THE FEATURE BREAKING UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS
SUGGEST THE FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE
DAYTIME CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND...BUT WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN CENTRAL TX...WILL LEVEL OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

AFTER ANOTHER MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A
RARE MID-SUMMER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. BETWEEN THE FRONT AND OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION MOVING IN
UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MIDDAY HOURS...
WITH HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE...POSSIBLY
MORE...FOR OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGHS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...SMALL HAIL...AND
ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1-2 INCHES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING
TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...A MORE REALISTIC INTERPRETATION OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION IS THAT OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE TAKEN
OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND A REPOSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD QUICKLY REFOCUS OVER NE TX WHILE SURFACE FOCAL
POINTS WASH OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE UNSTABLE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...SO SOME LOW POPS ARE LEFT TO NORTHERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PERIOD WHERE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE HAS A CHANCE TO INTERACT WITH POOLED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK
AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL CONTINUE LEANING ON THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FAVOR THE MORE MOIST ECMWF OVER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE GFS. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL SHOWN TO RETREAT EASTWARD
ON SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER RESUMING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  75  96 /  20  10  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  72  97  72  94 /  20  10  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  97  73  97 /  20  10  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  75  94  73  94 /  -   10  40  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  99  78 100 /  -   -   10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  77  95  74  95 /  10  10  40  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  73 100 /  -   -   20  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  73  97  73  94 /  20  10  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  75  93 /  20  10  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  97  77  98 /  10  10  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  98  75  98 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18




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