Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 220837
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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