Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240437
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1037 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.AVIATION... /06z TAF Discussion/
VFR conditions will prevail at all area TAF sites through the
forecast period. Winds will be the only TAF element impacting the
terminals over the next 30 hours. Light southerly winds are forecast
overnight tonight, picking up between 10 and 15 knots along I-35
tomorrow while remaining southerly. Del Rio and the Rio Grande Plains
will see winds more out of the east and southeast. A weak Pacific
front approaches Central Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday AM.
Cloud cover will increase ahead of the front, but should not restrict
terminals. Winds will become northerly behind the front. The current
timing puts the front through Central Texas between 03z and 07z
time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...

Well above normal temperatures today and even warmer readings are
expected Tuesday with record highs possible for Austin. Continued
clear and dry conditions expected.

A low amplitude shortwave ridge has built overtop of South-Central
Texas today that will break down tomorrow as deeper SW flow develops.
We are running about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon as west
flow in the 925-700mb occurs. A developing Western Coast trough will
shift SE and become stretched from the central plains to northern
Baja Mexico. Stronger SW flow will develop Tuesday and advect warmer
925-850mb airmass from Mexico over the region. BUFR soundings suggest
4-7C warming that will support a solid increase in surface
temperatures tomorrow. MOS guidance was underdone today and feel
that is the case for tomorrow as well. Highs reaching the upper 70s
to the upper 80s are likely and will rival many records. KAUS looks
to have the best shot at breaking a record with KSAT being within
1-3F degrees. Del Rio record will be out of reach which stands in
the upper 80s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

No major highlights of impactful weather through the entire long
term period outside of a few cold front passages on Wednesday and
again Saturday. Rain chances will remain low with these frontal
passages with the best chances confined to the Rio Grande Plains
Saturday.

The elongated and stretched longwave trough across the Central Plains
into the desert SW will remain north of the region with little to no
forcing crossing the area. Enough equatorward momentum associated
with the trough will shift a weak pacific front through the region
early Wednesday morning. As the base of the trough swings across
late Wednesday night, continued and stronger CAA will occur and bring
lower 20 dewpoints into the region. This will likely lead to a light
freeze across the the Hill Country. A general slow warm up will
occur through the end of the week and Saturday with light return flow
occurring. Return flow will best across the Rio Grande Plains and
this is where the best rain chances (20-30%) will be Saturday. Over
the weekend, a west to east trough axis will shift through the region
and bring another cool and dry front through. The mid and upper-
level low will remain south of the region with little impact to the
region into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  53  82  50  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  49  82  50  67 /   0   0   0  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  48  82  51  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  49  81  45  62 /   0   0   0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  49  83  48  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  50  80  47  64 /   0   0   0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             79  47  85  49  71 /   0   0   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  49  81  51  68 /   0   0   0  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  52  82  54  67 /   0   0   0  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  50  83  52  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  49  84  53  70 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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