Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 251149 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING TAKES PLACE AND A
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 09Z AND 11Z
ACROSS KDRT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING UP
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THERE WAS ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT WINDS WERE TURNING TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
BENEATH THIS TROUGH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
REACHING JUST NORTHWEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY BRINGING WARM...MOIST AIR TO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL
BE WARM AND DRY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH INTO MEXICO
INITIALLY...BUT THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON WHEN IT KICKS OUT TO
THE EAST. THEY ALL AGREE ON FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...SO THAT IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTEST AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWEST. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE. THIS WILL MEAN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY. AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
RETURNING DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER AIR. DEPENDING ON TIMING THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  52  68  55  59 /   0  -   10  20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  49  69  56  60 /   0  -   10  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  50  70  57  62 /   0  -   10  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  49  65  49  52 /   0  -   10  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  44  65  46  60 /   0   0  -   10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  51  66  52  54 /   0  -   10  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  45  68  52  60 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  50  69  57  61 /   0  -   10  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  53  71  59  64 /   0  -   20  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  51  69  56  61 /   0  -   10  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  50  70  56  62 /   0  -   10  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




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