Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 261141
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY NORTHEAST GA
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER COLD
CORE LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN KY/TN AND DRIFTING EASTWARD. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE UPPER LOWS
POSITION. THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY LIMITED... AND ONLY ABLE TO PRODUCE THE OCCASIONAL SMALL BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN BACK ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND PUSHING INTO PARTS OF
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY PATCHY AND
LIGHT IN NATURE DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AREA
OBSERVATIONS SHOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO KY...
SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPS TO BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO NORTH GA
UNTIL MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE... AND THIS WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IF OCCUR AT ALL. HOWEVER... DO EXPECT MID 30S TO SPREAD
INTO NORTH GA... AND THESE TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW REACHING
THE GROUND IF IMPULSES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CAN SQUEEZE
OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW BANDS OF PRECIP THROUGH MAINLY
THIS MORNING. DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL DRY TRENDS... NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH GA EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA THIS MORNING WHERE FORCING...
MOISTURE AND TEMPS MIGHT BE MORE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR... IT WOULD BE LIGHT... MAYBE SOMEWHERE FROM A LIGHT
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FEET
AND POSSIBLY NEAR AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. FOR THIS REASON...
PLAN TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST GA... BUT
WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST GA THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING... JUST TO PLAY IT SAFE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY TO MID THIS EVENING... AND ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
ON ROADWAYS COULD FREEZE AND RESULT IN A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.
HOWEVER... INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND LACK OF PRECIP SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DRYING TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON... AND THEREFORE
SUSPECT THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL... BUT WILL MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY... AND POST A STATEMENT OR
ADVISORY FOR THIS THREAT IF CONDITIONS WARRANT LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS FROM 9 AM THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MAY KEEP MUCH OF NORTH GA CLOUDY AND
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/
MODELS GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SOME IN
AMPLITUDE...TRENDING CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...THOUGH
STILL MAINTAINS A LESS PROGRESSIVE TIMING. THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING
LESS LIKELY FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH...BUT ENOUGH TO HINT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MTNS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE SECOND POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. LOOKING LIKE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY RAIN THOUGH AGAIN CANNOT SHAKE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING...WITH OCNL PATCHES OF
-RA THRU AROUND 15Z EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID LEVEL CIGS BY
18Z... THEN SCATTERING BY 23Z. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY SPREAD SOME
MID LEVEL CIGS BACK INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES TONIGHT AROUND 09Z.
THESE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER BY 12-14Z TUE. CURRENT WEST WINDS AROUND 7-
9KTS WILL VEER NW BY 14-15Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST THRU AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WNW WINDS AROUND 7-10KTS TONIGHT... AND ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  29  51  29 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         46  34  49  31 /  20   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  26  42  24 /  40  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    44  30  48  28 /  20   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        52  34  54  33 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  47  29 /  40  10   0   0
MACON           54  31  55  31 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            44  30  50  28 /  20   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  30  51  29 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         56  34  56  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



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