Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 050731
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW...
THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN EXACT LOCATION OF LOW BETWEEN SHORT
TERM MODELS...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE
LOW IMPACTING EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP PSEUDO
WEDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.  MODELS..
INCLUDING HI RES MODELS...CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING /GENERALLY 4 TO 8 PM/. MODELS
SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT AND EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY...THE MAIN ISSUE IS LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS AS FAR AS EXACT LOCATION.  HAVE BROAD BRUSHED
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH BEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL GA.  AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO...WILL STAY CLOSE TO COOLER MAV IN EAST WITH MORE OF
A BLEND OF MAV/MET AS WEDGE SETS UP TODAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO GO MORE ZONAL IN NATURE
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY. THE GFS
HAS THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE CWFA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
TURNS THE TROUGH INTO A SHEAR AXIS THAT PARKS ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN
GA. THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER AND STRONGER TROUGH PROGGED VS THE GFS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS ON THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY TUESDAY. A LEE TROUGH
SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A FRONT APPROACHING THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT TO SOUTHERN GA BEFORE
STALLING IT OUT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT STALLING/BECOMING
DIFFUSE ACROSS NORTHERN GA.


NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS...MID LEVEL CIGS...050...WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS PREVAIL AT 5-10KTS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY 18-24Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  68  83  69 /  40  30  30  20
ATLANTA         87  70  84  71 /  40  40  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  80  64 /  50  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  68  86  68 /  30  20  40  20
COLUMBUS        91  71  88  72 /  40  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     84  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20
MACON           90  69  86  70 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            90  68  87  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  87  68  84  69 /  40  40  40  20
VIDALIA         89  71  86  71 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...ATWELL


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