Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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746
FXUS62 KFFC 081826
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016


.UPDATE...
SO FAR MAIN TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK AS INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH DID
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA IN THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU AN CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ALLOWING FOR SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS AND CLOUD COVERAGE FILLING
BACK IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS COMING UP IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE
POTENTIALLY EXPANDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY TO ANOTHER COUNTY OR
TWO IN THE FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY GOING LONGER BEYOND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL BE LOOKING INTO A POSSIBLE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR OTHER PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA INCLUDING METRO ATLANTA
FOR POSSIBLE DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT BANDING SETTING UP FARTHER SOUTH /PLAN TO INCREASE SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS NEAR MIDDAY ACCORDINGLY/. TO ADD
ANOTHER ELEMENT...PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH LOOK TO REACH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO MIDWEEK HERE SO STAY TUNED FOR OTHER
PRODUCTS!

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODEL AND WPC QPF REMAINS LOW...WHICH IS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW PW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SNOWFALL TOTALS LIMITED...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS SINCE HIGHEST QPF MOST AREAS IS BEFORE THE CHANGE-
OVER TO ALL OR PREDOMINATELY SNOW. MOUNTAIN COUNTIES STILL REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLIER
BEFORE QPF VALUES DROP. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED TO ADD CATOOSA AND
WHITFIELD COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THEIR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE ATLANTA AND ATHENS METRO AREAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB TROUGH AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SO ANY LINGERING ISO/SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THIS PERIOD. SINCE THE ATMOS IS PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT AND VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THE MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. CWFA WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PROGGING A PRETTY GOOD SHORTWAVE TO DIG DOWN
IN THE FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
START PUSHING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS COMING IN A LITTLE WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT...SO WILL GO
WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER. THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. ITS STILL
TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PTYPES...SO WILL GO WITH RA OR SN.
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE...ESPECIALLY SINCE
PTYPE ISSUES ARE INVOLVED.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CWFA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL LOW END VFR CIGS FOR NORTHERN SITES SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS TRICKY
BUT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO FOR INITIAL -SHRA THEN
TRANSITION TO -SHSN AFTER NEAR 05Z IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR KATL AND
NEARBY SITES. ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION AND THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT
BAND OF SNOW FORMING NEAR MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FAR
SOUTH AS KATL AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING FOR UPDATES AS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE WINDS WEST TO WNW 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-25
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON -SHSN CHANCE/COVERAGE.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  29  38  23 /  40  40  10  10
ATLANTA         50  28  36  23 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     44  23  29  17 /  60  60  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    50  28  35  21 /  40  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        54  31  42  26 /  20  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  27  34  22 /  50  50  20  10
MACON           56  32  42  25 /  30  30   5   5
ROME            48  28  35  20 /  40  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  29  37  23 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         60  34  45  28 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER



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