Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 190534
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1234 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 657 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Strong frontal system progged to push quickly across the area,
driven by amplifying upper trough currently across the east central
plains and western TN Valley. Forecast continues to have a rapidly
progressing line of showers impinging the NW CWA by 7-8 PM this
evening, near the Atlanta Metro and west central CWA by 9-10 PM then
quickly skirting the remainder of the area by 4-5 AM Sunday. Models
continue to have low end elevated instability near 100-200 J/kg so
kept slight chance thunder mention. Given the strong shear
parameters and some diffluence aloft aiding the frontogenetic
forcing, cannot rule out a few strong convective cells with enhanced
downdraft winds and a few rumbles of thunder, though greatest chance
of this should be confined to the NW CWA this evening. Enhanced
gradient winds will likely be of more impact with the system as the
low deepens to the north with strong CAA on the heels of the fropa.
Wind Advisory continues for north GA through 12z Sunday.

NW fetch will still be enhanced and gusty through Sunday, though
below advisory levels. While skies will be mostly clear due to quick
ridging/subsidence in the wake of the front, highs Sunday should
only make it into the low to mid 50s for most areas given the
aforementioned strong CAA. This has warranted a Freeze Watch Sunday
night into Monday morning for all areas except the southern tier of
central GA. The frost/freeze program ends Nov. 20, therefore even if
frost or freeze conditions are forecast, agricultural interests will
not warrant Watch, Warning, or Advisory issuances.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Models continue to diverge for the forecast for mid to late next
week. High pressure and mostly fair conditions are expected for
the early part of next week. Temperatures slightly below normal
are anticipated. There is a slight chance for showers across the
southern and east central portion of the CWFA and QPF amounts
remain very light.

The models begin to show some significant differences beginning Wednesday
into Thursday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have a southward
digging longwave trough and a closed low pressure. The GFS is a
bit faster and further north with the development of the closed
low at 500mb than the ECMWF. The ECMWF develops a closed low at
the surface a little faster than the GFS, but both models show the
best potential for measurable precip remains across the far
southern portion of the CWFA and have upped the pops to around 30%
in the far southern zones.


NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A cold front is crossing the region and has moved through all the
TAF sites at this issuance, apart from MCN. Expect the front and
associated heavy rain to traverse MCN within the next hour,
resulting in gusts upwards of 30-35kts. As the front continues to
exit to the south and east, residual showers will diminish. NW Winds
will stay elevated overnight around 12-15kts with gusts around
20-25kts. Low level clouds and cold air stratus behind the front
will linger through the early morning. High pressure bringing in
drier air will help to erode clouds through the remainder of the
day. NW winds will be gusty throughout the day. By the evening,
winds will begin to diminish (5-8kts) under clear skies.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  31  58  37 /   5   0   0   0
Atlanta         52  32  57  40 /   5   0   0   0
Blairsville     47  25  57  31 /   5   0   0   0
Cartersville    51  29  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        58  34  61  44 /   5   0   0   5
Gainesville     52  32  57  38 /   5   0   0   0
Macon           58  31  60  41 /  10   0   0   5
Rome            51  28  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  54  29  59  38 /   5   0   0   0
Vidalia         63  36  62  45 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for the
following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...
Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...
Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...Meriwether...Monroe...
Morgan...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...
South Fulton...Spalding...Taliaferro...Towns...Troup...Twiggs...
Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...White...
Whitfield...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...
DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Gordon...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Heard...Henry...Jackson...
Lumpkin...Madison...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...Towns...
Union...Walker...Walton...White...Whitfield.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26



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