Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 232355
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
755 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017



.UPDATE...
Diurnal convection has largely subsided over the state, with just
a shower or two remaining this hour. Have lowered PoPs,
particularly across north Georgia, and only have a slight chance
in for another hour before removing all chances overnight. Hourly
temperature and dew point grids have been adjusted based on the
latest cooling trends. Have also added patchy fog wording in the
grids for generally 10z-14z. Otherwise, current forecast looks to
be on track.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Isolated convection developing as expected this afternoon over north
GA and areas near KCSG. This activity will move SW as it did last
two days and again could be strong and perhaps approach severe
levels, though intensity likely will be a bit weaker than yesterday
as SBCAPE currently 1000-2000 J/kg. Yesterday`s SBCAPE closer to
2000 J/kg.

After convection dissipates after 9pm, no significant weather impacts
expected in the rest of the short term forecast period. 12Z
local/NWS hires model guidance including 3km NAM nest in good
agreement showing active weather this afternoon and no convection
Sunday. Patchy light fog possible again Sun morning but will
dissipate after 9a. And until we can get rid of high-amplitude long
wave ridging over the eastern CONUS, will continue to see temps well
above normal.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Made some slight adjustments to late period pops again given some
trends on a less robust front for Thursday. Kept thunder in for
consistency though one could justify too stable at least for
initial passage but progged instability could moderate back from
the southeast for the end of the week. Otherwise did a latest
refresh on recent blend of guidance and forecast looks largely on
track for a nice dry and abnormally warm week. Previous discussion
follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No real changes to the recent extended forecast trends seen with this
model cycle. Medium range models continue to keep the region under a
large, but not particularly strong, upper-level ridge through all
but the tail-end of the period. Upper trough breaks down the ridge as
we head into Thursday/Friday of next week and a surface trough
develops across the coastal Carolinas and into central/south Georgia
in the wake of Maria as she sweeps up the east coast. Persistent
northeast to north low-level flow keeps the region stable through the
period, and this stable airmass and the absence of strong upper
dynamics or low-level forcing keeps POPs low with this late-week
system. Dry and above seasonal normal temperatures reign until then,
replaced by more seasonal temperatures as we head into next weekend.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR expected through the period except for possible patchy MVFR
vsbys 09-13z. Winds will be east and light overnight, then
increase to 5-11kt through the day.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  86  66  87 /  10  10   5   5
Atlanta         68  86  68  86 /  20  10   5  10
Blairsville     59  82  59  83 /  30  10   5  10
Cartersville    65  87  64  88 /  30  10   5  10
Columbus        69  89  69  89 /  20  10   5  10
Gainesville     66  84  66  85 /  10  10   5  10
Macon           65  88  66  88 /  20   5   5   5
Rome            64  87  64  88 /  40  10   5  10
Peachtree City  65  86  65  87 /  20  10   5  10
Vidalia         68  88  68  88 /  20   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31



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