Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281138
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Second round of thunderstorms continues to roll through the
Northern tier. Low end CAPE values still reside along an axis
from Central Alabama in to West Central GA so would expect to
continue to see some lightning with ongoing activity. All short
term hi res show and gradual shift in activity through the ATL
metro through daybreak as well as an overall weakening trend which
looks on target given aforementioned instability.

Will likely be dealing with some low clouds early on in the day
for Central GA which should delay any further development but
eventually by this afternoon...additional activity should fire.
Moisture and CAPE values will be modest at best but supportive for
low end sct thunderstorm development generally between the I20 and
I16 corridors. Still some cold temps aloft but trends in lapse
rates will be downward as shortwave passes to the east and ridge
builds in. Not out of the question for a strong storm or two but
should be very isolated in nature if at all.

Not much change for Wed except that upper ridge gets even a little
stronger in response to digging trough well to the west. This will
allow for temps just about areawide to reach the low to mid 80s.
Ridge should also preclude any significant precip development but
will keep a sliver of 20 pops across Central GA for now where
moisture and instability is enhanced.

Deese

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

The beginning of the long term period is characterized by
more unsettled weather. Rain chances will initially increase
Thursday especially across the eastern sections of CWA in vicinity
of weak wedge front. The main storm system then quickly encroaches
on the area from the west Thursday night into Friday bringing good
shower and thunderstorm chances area wide. The possibility for
some strong to severe thunderstorm activity remains during this time
frame with adequate shear though instability is less impressive.
Nonetheless, it is something to watch as we head from Thursday night
into Friday.

This storm system exits east by Saturday with a dry and warm weekend
in store thanks to upper ridging. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday
will be several degrees above average with mostly sunny skies.

Early next week will transition back into an active pattern, though
models diverge on timing and evolution of the next storm system. The
ECMWF brings the next system into the area as early as Monday while
the GFS holds off until Tuesday. Regardless, expect the brief
inactive weather this weekend to come to an end early next week.

RW

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

With SHRA/TSRA moving through in waves...environment remains mixed
enough to prevent any developing IFR across the area. Indications
are this will be changing later this morning with at least some
MVFR to develop the west and then moving in with low level SW
flow. Have gone TEMPO MVFR for now for the ATL sites and then
improvement to VFR by early afternoon. Discontinued threat of
TSRA this afternoon at ATL terminals but kept at MCN and CSG with
low end chance in the grids requiring a Prob30 for those
terminals.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
Medium on MVFR development.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  54  83  58 /  30   5   0   5
Atlanta         76  57  82  61 /  30  20  10   5
Blairsville     71  48  77  55 /  20   5   0   5
Cartersville    76  53  81  59 /  30  10   5   5
Columbus        80  61  85  60 /  30  20  20   0
Gainesville     75  54  80  58 /  30   5   0   5
Macon           80  59  85  60 /  30  10  20   5
Rome            76  52  81  58 /  20  10   5   5
Peachtree City  77  56  83  57 /  40  30  20   5
Vidalia         83  63  86  63 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Deese



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