Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 302040
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR
EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE
PRETTY MUCH OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR
AND NAM HOLD THINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND
BORDER. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR... POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES... CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KGDV
...KSDY AND KOLF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGGW HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGGW POSSIBLE DROPPING TO
MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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