Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 060857
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
257 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS SLOWLY GIVING
WAY TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS
OF HAZE AND SMOKE FROM THE ALBERTA WILDFIRES HAS ARRIVED IN OUR
REGION. CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME PATCHY SMOKE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
TODAY WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 MILES.

OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE PERSISTED STRONGER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
ANTICIPATED. TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. NOW EXPECTING
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 15 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED A BIT
MORE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLEARING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
BY TONIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND AS THE
DISCONNECTED TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF SEPARATING
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH NE MONTANA.

THIS IN-BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIP AWAY FROM THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRING WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING RAIN TO NE MONTANA TO START THE WEEK.     BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE THERE. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

ATMOSPHERE MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

CURRENT MODEL RUNS MOVE THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STACKED LOW FORMING OVER NORTH DAKOTA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TAKES MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NOW.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS:
SMOKE FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA WILDFIRES HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SMOKE WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF THE TIME. OCCASIONAL MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO SMOKE.

WX/WIND: ISOL SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KGGW
WHERE THEY WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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