Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 201414 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
814 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sat...

Radar imagery shows isolated rain showers and thunderstorms
working their way from Blaine County into our northern tier
counties. Beefed up pops and added TS. Otherwise conditions are
represented well by the grids.


Previous Discussion -
Temperatures continue to warm today with building ridge and low
level southernly flow. Boundary/dry line develops in the afternoon
across the CWA with dry downslope wind across south central
Montana and a moister southerly flow over the Dakotas. Expect this
boundary to be the focus for convection later today.

Shortwave trof moving across southwest Canada will push this
boundary and a cold front through eastern Montana overnight. Cold
air advection and tighter pressure gradient will result in
stronger northwest winds along with cooler temperatures for
Friday. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...
The latest 00z model consensus continues to reflect a gradually
building upper level ridge pattern across the western U.S. and
extending into Montana Friday night into the weekend leading to
dry weather conditions and increasingly warmer temperatures, back
to the 90s by Sunday.

An upper level low pressure system tracking well to the north of
the area through Central Alberta/Saskatchewan Sunday night into
early next week may help to flatten the ridge, potentially
lowering high temperatures back to the upper 80s to around 90 by
Tuesday. If the track of this feature occurs as current model
projections suggest, much of any precipitation chances would occur
further north.

The forecast beyond the midweek was trended toward consensus
blends given the usual increasing uncertainty at such larger time
scales. Maliawco


VFR conditions will prevail today. Any impacts to area terminals
would likely come from isolated thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon. A stronger storm or two is also possible near KSDY,
though any storm may be accompanied by shifting and brief gusty
winds. Maliawco



Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the region
today and Friday.

Today a low pressure system will begin developing over southern
Montana. Hot temperatures and very low relative humidity combined
with gusty winds will result in Red Flag conditions from the CMR
southwest today. Winds will also be turning from the southeast to
west in the afternoon.

Thunderstorms are possible to the east later today and tonight as
the low pressure begins moving east. As the system moves into
North Dakota on Friday gusty northwest winds are expected. These
winds, along with continued low relative humidity, could lead to
critical fire weather conditions during Friday afternoon and early


Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for


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