Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 130210
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
710 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF SOME THIS EVENING AND ALREADY LOW THAT
THE FORECAST LOW FOR TONIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN AND REWORKED
WEATHER FOR NEXT 18 HOURS BASED ON NEW TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE
FRONT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE REGION. FOR NOW WITH THE LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RADAR
ECHOES ARE ALREADY SPREADING EAST. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. AS MID LEVELS
WARM...MORE MIXING SHOULD OCCUR. FOLLOWED SREF PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY
PLAIN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANYTHING LINGERING IN THE REGION.

GIVEN LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE MODELS DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN TO CREATE DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THEREFORE FUTURE SHIFTS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CAREFULLY.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM/WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DEVELOPING WEST WINDS. MEANWHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE CONTINUING PROGRESSIVE FLOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS...WITH ONLY
ONE TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING. THAT CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS ON
MONDAY GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH A WETTER
PERIOD. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THIS FRONT
BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. GFS IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE DECENT MOISTURE. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW
ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: SLOWLY DIMINISHING SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW WILL
BRING MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT AREAS OF IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

WIND: CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS...TURNED OUT OF THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

GILCHRIST/MICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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