Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 070851
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS OVER THE MIDDLE
THIRD OF CANADA AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE THIRD OF THE CONUS.
EMBEDDED IN IT IS A WEAK MESO RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND A LARGER AREA OF COOL AIR OVER THE BOREAL FOREST OF
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. TO THE WEST A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH
PRESSURE EXIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE RUNNING NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW NORTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH MID WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... MESO RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE ARE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GET PUSHED OUT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
AIR MASS BEHIND IT MOVES IN. ENTRY FOR THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND NOON AND BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A
WIND SHIFT. SURPRISINGLY MODELS ARE NOT BEING VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON POST FRONT. HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
LEAD HERE WITH TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALONG THE FRONT BEING MINOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WEAK RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL QUICKLY
THICKEN SHALLOWING OUT THE COLD AIR MASS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY. DRY AND RAPIDLY WARMING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THESE PERIODS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
90 BY THURSDAY.  GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO MOVE TOWARDS MONTANA. COMBINE THIS
MOISTURE WITH SOME SHORTWAVES AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OF THESE WAVES IS TIMED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL IN THE AREA. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS IN
PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MOST
OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE RIDGE AT TIMES THAT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO
SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN FIRES.

SKY: SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT (06Z) TONIGHT.

WX: THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS: LIGHT MAINLY EAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NW THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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