Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
332 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The ridge axis shifted east of the region during the night in
response to a shortwave trough moving eastward across the northern
Rockies. However, nothing but dry air upstream of the forecast
area so expect another round of sunny skies and unseasonable
warmth today. Models indicated a modest tightening in the height
gradient aloft which will bring an uptick in west winds this

A low pressure system dropping southward from the Gulf of Alaska
will cause the flow aloft to shift to the southwest. High level
moisture entrained in the southwesterlies will bring thin cirrus to
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado while skies remain clear
elsewhere. Despite warm afternoon temperatures, overnight lows
will be near normal due to the lack of atmospheric moisture and
clouds which will allow strong radiational cooling to occur.

Except for increased cirrus Sunday, dry and warm conditions will
continue ahead of the deepening trough off the U.S. West Coast.
Expect afternoon highs to continue to run close to 10 degrees
above seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A persistent large trough along the NOAM left coast will be the
normal through the long term forecast. The longer term models are
consistent with this feature but having some issues in the higher
latitudes which will have minimal impact on this forecast at the
moment. A piece of the western trough breaks free early next week
as a stronger core of subtropical jet level winds sweeps by. This
jet and trough will be interacting with the subtropical moisture
and excite shower activity over eastern Utah by Monday afternoon
with the bulk of this lift passing overhead Tuesday morning. Very
high snow levels are anticipated with the passage of this system.
The pattern remains progressive and this activity will be short
lived with clearing and drying returning by mid-week as the ridge
rebuilds overhead. A very similar pattern sets up to end the week
though the western trough will be breaking away from the coast
and send a more organized system into the west for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 332 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours in
persistent dry regime. Light drainage winds will shift to the
west and increase to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Drainage flows
become reestablished early this evening.






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