Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 291654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER ONE LOBE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
FORCING OVER NW COLORADO. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE STORMS TO AGAIN FIRE OVER
ALL THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE
OVER THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THERE...WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES. THERE WILL BE LESS CHANGE
IN DAYTIME HIGHS AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH...WITH HIGHS STAYING A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS.

CONVECTION SHOULD GO TO BED AS THE SUN SETS AND THE END OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S...MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
DAYBREAK.

THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS AREA-WIDE WILL
REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL VALUES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
WARMS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL FEEL QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE WETTER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE MONTH OF MAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT AS WE APPROACH THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AS WE
DRY OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES
IN MONDAY AND SENDS THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE SEASON INTO THE
AREA. PEAK HEAT EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS MAKING A
RUN INTO THE 90S. WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EXTENDED TEMPS UP A GOOD
5+ DEGREES OVER BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE STILL SEEING
SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER. PATTERN LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO EXPECTED
BEYOND MONDAY. NEXT PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. ECMWF AND GFS NOT
IN PRIME AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS STAYING NORTH AND THE ECMWF A BIT
DEEPER...WHICH BRINGS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE...THAT IS OUTSIDE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL TOUCH BASE ON THIS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT FORECAST TERMINALS IN EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT
CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY FROM COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL FORM ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS FROM THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT ILS
BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES THROUGH 30/03Z BUT REMAIN AOA VFR LEVELS.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN
PASSING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AFTER 06Z MOST THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z WITH IMPROVEMENT EVEN
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT


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