Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 041955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
QUIET SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED...WITH THE MAJOR FORECAST QUESTIONS
BEING THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES...
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT`S LOWS.

MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY SPURRED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY
HAS BEEN PRESENT AGAIN TODAY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THOUGH...IT
IS MOSTLY CONTAINED TO THE UPPER PENINSULA...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
HAVE BLED INTO FLORENCE AND MARINETTE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SOUTHWARD SPREAD...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE BORDER AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE BRINGING THEM TO AN END TONIGHT.
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THIS MIGHT EVEN BE A
CONSERVATIVE DRAW DOWN. THOUGH MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER
A BIT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKS IN...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD CLAMP OFF POTENTIAL FOR
ANY MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE LARGELY
GIVEN UP ON PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AS WELL.

LINGERING CLOUDINESS LAST NIGHT CHOPPED OFF TEMPERATURES UP NORTH
BEFORE THEY COULD FALL BELOW 50 DEGREES...WELL ABOVE FORECAST.
SIMILAR DANGER EXISTS TONIGHT...BUT IT SEEMS LESS OF A HAZARD
TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED IN THE AREA. AS
SUCH...LARGELY LEFT LOW FORECAST UNTOUCHED...WITH ONLY COSMETIC
TWEAKS. THOUGH IT IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL...GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. ASSUMING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPS FALL AS EXPECTED...THAT DOESN`T SEEM UNREASONABLE IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL...MEAGER INSTABILITY AT LOW LEVELS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN
TOMORROW. EXPECTATION WOULD BE TO BLUNT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...KEEPING THEM IN A SIMILAR NEIGHBORHOOD AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID TWEAK A COUPLE OF POINTS
BASED ON OVER/UNDERPERFORMANCE ON HIGHS TODAY...BUT AS WITH THE
LOW FORECAST...CHANGES ARE COSMETIC.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THEY NOW
AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE
GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE BUT
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING SOME NEEDED RAINS TO THE REGION.

WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THOUGH THE MODELS DO FORECAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WITH
SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING FOG AS FAR SOUTH AS INTO THE FOX
VALLEY AND BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG IN EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME HINT AT TRANSIENT FOG
NEAR SUNRISE AT THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SITES.
STILL...A WIDE RANGE OF OPINIONS FROM DENSE FOG TO NO FOG EXIST IN
THE GUIDANCE AND FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY MORE CONFIDENTLY PUT FORTH
SPECIFICS. THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IT...DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT VIS REDUCTIONS AT GRB OR ATW SO LEFT THEM OUT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....LUCHS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......LUCHS



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