Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 012042
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

COMBINATION OF SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WINTER STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS AT 230 PM
SO WILL CONTINUE THEM FOR AWHILE LONGER. BEST SNOW SHOULD BE FROM
MANITOWOC TO OSHKOSH. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM OVER ILLINOIS MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE HIGH EDGES IN FROM MINNESOTA.
WENT A BIT COLDER THAN MOS IN MOST PLACES DUE TO EXTENT OF ARCTIC
AIR TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
DURING THE EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD ROCKET DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A POTENT S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE SOME UPPER DIVG WITH THE RRQ OF A
DEPARTING JET STREAK EARLY...AND THE LFQ OF ANOTHER JET STREAK LATE...
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AROUND 850 MB TO
ALLOW MEASURABLE PCPN TO DEVELOP. THE DRY AIR LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE TOO WESTERLY FOR LAKE-EFFECT IN NC WI...SO
WILL KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY AS WELL.

A S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY C/EC WI ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
AND JET STREAK ENERGY WILL ALSO IMPACT THE REGION. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN
FAR NC WI...WHERE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING TO -24 TO -26 C OVER NORTHERN WI BY WEDS EVG. A DRY
SLOT WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SNOW BELT ON WEDS. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED ON WEDS
NGT...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS BLO ZERO.
AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SW
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
SAG INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WI. A COUPLE PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND/OR ISENT LIFT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED POPS
ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR
WEATHER AT MANITOWOC AND OSHKOSH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THERE TO ROUGHLY A
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO DOOR COUNTY LINE. MAINLY VFR NORTH OF THERE
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 30000 FEET. BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE
FORCE GUSTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KEWAUNEE FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ045-
048-049.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
MARINE.........RDM






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