Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 290655 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION DECREASING. LATEST RADAR DATA
PAINTED A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PICTURE ACROSS THE STATE WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED MINIMAL LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME...KEEPING THE SKIES A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDY FOR THOSE ISLANDS. IN FACT...EXPECT THIS STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO SHIFT WEST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SPREADING TO THE REST
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRM UP A BIT WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
TROUGHS THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS FINALLY MOVE AWAY...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOLUTIONS INDICATE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THUS MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS.

TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FAR NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

AN INCREASE IN MAINLY WINDWARD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STILL
INDICATES THE DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FAR EAST OF
THE STATE ON THURSDAY. LATEST GFS TRACKS THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
THE DISSIPATED SYSTEM REACHING THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE EARLY
SATURDAY...WHILE THE OLDER ECMWF HAS A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
MOISTURE. REGARDLESS..WETTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER MAY SPREAD FROM
THE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO
AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY JUST SOUTHWEST OF OAHU
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY DECLINE OF THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES MAY HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES...THOUGH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS ARE
CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...SHALL LEAVE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FURTHER THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
MAUI COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...UNDER THE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS. THE SCA CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.

&&

$$

HUI








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