Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 280159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED. A STRONGER FRONT MAY
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY THE ISLANDS IS ACCELERATING WINDS
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SUMMIT TO WARNING LEVELS. THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATE NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS... WINDS ARE LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLIES
WITH COOL AND CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
DEW POINTS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50/S WITH MAUI COUNTY SEEING DEW POINTS DROPPING BELOW 60 AS WELL.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS... AND TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 60/S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE 50/S IN SOME
SHELTERED AREAS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS AS THE DEW POINTS REBOUND.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC TURNING ISLAND WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH
THE MAJORITY FALLING OVER NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
TERRAIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
WEAKEN WINDS MONDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE EAST WINDS TURNING
WESTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY. LIMITED SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN AND CLOUDS
FALLING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK WITH GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICTING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTERING THE AREA
FRIDAY FROM THE EAST... AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SOMEWHAT CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION WITH BOTH FORMING
A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING MODERATE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. BUT AS USUAL... LONG TERM
FORECASTS OF THIS NATURE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS BOUNCE
FROM ONE FORECAST TO THE NEXT. THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE NW TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF KAUAI. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH VFR CIGS CONFINED TO N AND NE SLOPES
AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT
PASSED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE HIGH
SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND PRODUCING SOME TURBULENCE TO THE LEE
OF BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ELEVATED TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...AND DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SURF TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
WROE...AVIATION






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