Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 260021
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
721 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017


.AVIATION...
Showers moving through the CLL area with the waning trend across
the board in SETX. Skies clearing out of CU but CI will continue
to blow overhead from the Pacific moisture tap associated with
EPAC remnants of TS Pilar. Overnight some patchy fog should
redevelop and may see some rural sites with IFR to LIFR VISBY.
IAH/HOU should remain VFR but can`t rule out an hour or two of
MIFG. Showers redeveloping again along the seabreeze around 18z
and spreading to the west and northwest. Greater coverage will
probably be in the SW areas closer to the higher PW plume moving
into S TX and Coastal Bend.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Precip coverage remains sparse this afternoon but a little more
heating should continue to trigger some additional showers through
7 PM. Showers are expected to wane quickly after sunset. Tuesday
through Thursday look about the same each day fcst soundings
supporting high temperatures near 90 degrees and convective temps
in the middle to upper 80s. The pattern favors weak disturbances
embedded in a SW flow aloft to remain west of SE TX through the
end of the week. As the trough deepens out west, weak upper level
ridging will try to develop over East Texas. This feature will
likely impart some subsidence over SE TX so rain chances will
likely remain on the low side through the end of the week.
Moisture levels will exceed 2 inches on Thursday so despite the
subsidence, rain chances may be a bit higher along the wind shift
Thursday.

The front will not usher in cooler and drier air right away. Winds
will become NNE on Thursday but the drier air will only slowly
filter into SE TX on Friday and Saturday. The upper ridge dampens
out a bit as weak 500 mb s/wv moves across the southern plains on
Saturday and heights will fall a little bit. Cooler 850 mb temps
over the weekend will translate into cooler sfc temps and the
drier air with sfc dew pts in the 50`s will allow for cooler
overnight low temps over the weekend. Next weekend is looking good
with dry conds and high temps in the mid 80`s and low temps in the
60`s. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a strong 500 mb ridge over
OK/AR by the first week of Oct. Drier and warmer weather expected
for the first few days of October. 43

MARINE...
A few more days of light east to southeasterly winds over lower seas.
Upper level ridging should maintain early day isolated showers or
storms that will be moving onshore within a more moist maritime air
mass. The approach of a late week cold front will have breezes
backing more easterly Thursday...a slight strengthening of regional
northeasterlies over the weekend as Southern Plains high pressure
tightens the post-frontal offshore pressure gradient. These winds
will likely increase 2 to 3 foot sea heights by another foot going
into early next week. There may be some very minor coastal water run-
up issues along eastern facing shores Friday and Saturday. This
in response to this northeasterly fetch on top of slightly above
normal tides. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  90  74  90  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)              74  90  75  90  75 /  20  20  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)            81  88  80  88  81 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...45


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