Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 241231
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
431 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
After a very cold morning today, dry weather and a warming trend
will be in store through the weekend, followed by a cold storm
system arriving Monday and bringing more precipitation and
increased winds into Tuesday. Another storm system may then
impact our area later next week.


.DISCUSSION...
Some thin high clouds are tracking south from northern CA as
upper jet energy pushes into the region. Skies are otherwise clear
over central CA and this, combined with the very cold air mass in
place and light winds, is allowing temperatures in the SJ Valley
to drop below freezing. Widespread readings in the upper 20s and
lower 30s are currently being reported across the Valley and a
Freeze Warning remains in effect through 8 AM this morning.

The next weak shortwave trough to impact our area is currently
dropping out of the Pacific NW and will track through the Great
Basin region later this afternoon and evening. The impact for us
will be limited to a chance for a few light Sierra showers north
of Kings Canyon this evening along with some increased winds
across the area. Winds from the west and northwest should
occasionally gust over 45 mph through and below mountain passes
in Kern County, therefore a Wind Advisory has been issued for the
Kern County Mountains and desert areas for later this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will trend upward a few degrees through
the weekend as the weak Great Basin disturbance moves out and
another more significant developing trough drops south into
northern CA.

Models handle this trough similarly as they swing it across our
area Monday and through southern CA by later Tuesday. This will
bring us more rain and mountain snow along with another increase
in winds. The model trajectory and available moisture make it
likely to bring us more rain and snow than our most recent system.
SJ Valley QPF continues to run around a tenth of an inch, with
several inches of snow likely in the Sierra. This cold storm will
once again bring low snow levels, well down into the foothills and
possibly affecting passes in Kern County. Frozen precipitation in
the Kern County mountains and gusty winds through and below the
passes could cause travel difficulties in Kern County Monday into
Tuesday. We will also have to watch the progged track of the
upper low and cold air aloft and consider the possibility of a few
thunderstorms Monday or Tuesday.

Midweek is dry and warming again as the storm system continues to
swing south and east away from our region. Models are not as
consistent with a following storm system, but generally agree on a
frontal trough passing through our area during the Thursday/Friday
period. This will bring additional precipitation across our area and
gusty winds, with exact details to be refined upon further model
runs.


&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local IFR in Mountain obscurations over the
Southern Sierra Nevada between 21Z Sat and 06Z Sun. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected across the remainder of the Central CA Interior
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening
CAZ095-098-099.

Freeze Warning until 8 AM PST this morning CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford



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