Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 232349
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
345 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures
will continue across the central California interior through
Saturday with patchy late night and morning fog in the San Joaquin
Valley. The second half of the weekend will be cloudier and
cooler with locally gusty winds. Wet weather is possible Sunday
afternoon into Monday, especially over the higher terrain from
Fresno county northward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The central California interior is again basking
in sunshine and unseasonably warm weather this afternoon. Even
though temperatures are trending slightly lower than 24 hours
ago in most locations, they are still averaging a good 10 to 20
degrees above normal and will turn this holiday into one of the
warmest Thanksgiving days on record. Our spell of dry weather
and balmy afternoons will continue through Saturday. In fact,
high temperatures Saturday may again challenge records in Fresno
and Bakersfield. (see below) The next few nights will be relatively
cool to chilly with occurrences of patchy fog in the San Joaquin
Valley during the few hours either side of daybreak.

In the broader picture, a strong upper level ridge of high
pressure is parked over northern Baja while a weak cold frontal
boundary is stalled over northern California. Although the cold
front will wash out over the northern part of the state tonight,
a westerly flow aloft will bring some of its high cloudiness
into the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Their presence could mitigate fog formation in the San Joaquin
Valley tonight and also curb high temperatures a bit across much
of the CWA tomorrow. Otherwise, the upper level ridge over Baja
will dominate the pattern for at least another couple of days.

Meanwhile, another cold front will approach from the eastern
Pacific this weekend. The models have slowed its arrival into the
central California interior until late in the weekend. Although
precip could sneak into Merced county and the higher elevations
north of Fresno county as early as Sunday afternoon, the cold
front`s southward passage with its precip will occur from Sunday
evening into the wee hours Monday morning. Moisture with this
system is greatly limited, so precip amounts will be rather light,
especially in the San Joaquin Valley. The heaviest precip will
likely be orographically induced by an accompanying 120-knot jet
aloft. That same upper level jet will support gusty winds through
and below the Kern county mountain passes from late Sunday into
Monday and will also completely rain shadow the Mojave desert
which will remain rain-free. Otherwise, precip amounts from this
system will range from generally a tenth of an inch or less in the
San Joaquin Valley to as much as a half inch in the the foothills
and higher elevations of the Sierra. Locally higher amounts of an
inch or so are possible in Yosemite National Park which could
translate to as much as a foot of new snow above 8,000 feet. By
the time this system exits into the Great Basin Monday afternoon,
precip will dwindle to scattered showers over the mountains.
Otherwise, low clouds in the wake of this storm will remain banked
up along the western slopes of the Sierra and the north facing
slopes of the Tehachapi mountains into Monday evening. More
importantly, this system will finally put an end to our balmy
spell of weather. High temperatures Monday will be much much
cooler; actually at or slightly below normal for a change.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over central
California Tuesday and remain in control through Wednesday and
bring dry weather with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures.
Areas of night and morning fog could form in the San Joaquin
Valley during this period. During the middle of next week, the
models develop a closed low off the southern California coast.
It`s not certain how, if at all, this feature will impact the
weather across the CWA. The GFS hints that this low will tap into
some mid and high level subtropical moisture and brings it up
into our CWA by next Thursday while the other models keep the
low pretty far offshore with a continuation of dry weather and
generally clear skies over central California. We`ve increased
sky cover a bit on day 7 but kept the forecast dry.

             RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOV 25TH
                  FRESNO         BAKERSFIELD
                  76/1933         79/1914

&&

.AVIATION...
In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR in haze can be expected
during the next 24 hours with local IFR/LIFR conditions due to fog
between 12z and 18z Friday. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere
across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday November 24 2017... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kern... Kings and Tulare Counties.  Firepalce/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern...
Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Durfee
avn/fw...Durfee
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford


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