Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 272255
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
355 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEGINNING MONDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BANDS OF CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING ONE BAND THAT IS STREAMING
OVER KERN COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ALSO VISIBLE...IN
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS...IS THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE EL PORTAL FIRE
IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.

LIGHTNING DATA SHOW BOTH IN-CLOUD/CLOUD-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY
OVER TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE LIGHTNING IS
SPREADING NORTHWARD AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SLOWER TIMING THAN THE 19Z
HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL HAD FORECAST...WHICH HAD
THUNDER MOVING INTO THE PARK BY 20Z /1300 PDT/. THE HRRR DID MOVE
THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY 06Z MONDAY
/2300 PDT TONIGHT/...BUT DID HAVE A STORM MOVING INTO THE FRAZIER
PARK/PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB AREA AT THAT TIME. BUILD-UPS OVER LOS
ANGELES COUNTY ARE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED AT THIS TIME.

AT 19Z /NOON PDT/...BAKERSFIELD WAS RUNNING 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT
19Z SATURDAY...BUT FRESNO WAS RUNNING 2 DEGREES COOLER. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
103-106 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY LIKELY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE 18Z NAM-12
FORECASTS NEAR SATURATION OF THE 700-500-MB LAYER OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERT AREAS BY 15Z
/0800 PDT/ MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TUESDAY. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.

AFTER MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THE LATEST GFS...IN CONTRAST TO
BOTH THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS...PICKS UP ON THE COOLING FOR
MONDAY...THEN WARMS 850-MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A BRIEF COOL-DOWN SATURDAY.

DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
UNTIL 04Z MONDAY WITH A RECURRENCE AFTER 19Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-27      114:1933     83:1941     79:1933     52:1897
KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950

KBFL 07-27      117:1933     85:1965     83:1980     52:1914
KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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