Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 262329
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEY...A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OFFSHORE NORTHERN BAJA IS CURRENTLY SPINNING
CLOUDS AND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL HAS CLIPPED KERN COUNTY...WITH
AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE RIDGECREST AREA SO FAR.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS IN HANDLING THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT FOR US WILL BE SOME MEASURABLEPRECIPITATION
AT NEARLY ALL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS. QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEY...UP TO A
FEW TENTHS IN THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN AND DESERT AREAS...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WARM STORM WILL LIMIT
SNOWFALL TO MAINLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND ABOVE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MOSTLY BE JUST A FEW INCHES...BUT COULD SEE UP TO NEARLY A
FOOT AT SOME OF THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS.

WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS...THEN AN ADDITIONAL WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE AS THEY DRAG IT ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...THEN DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FETCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY SHUNTED
EAST OF THE REGION AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH
WILL RETURN US TO DRY CONDITIONS BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A POSSIBLE REPEAT OF THE VALLEY FOG PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
RECENTLY.



&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN...WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/VLIFR UNTIL 20Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW WILL CREATE MVFR WITH LOCAL MTN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
15Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JANUARY 27 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949
KFAT 01-28       78:1986     41:1963     50:2003     23:1975

KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
KBFL 01-28       77:1988     47:1957     52:1981     27:1957
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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