Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 082206
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
206 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN
KINGS COUNTY AND NORTHWARD INTO A PORTION OF CENTRAL FRESNO
COUNTY...BUT ALL OF THE FOG HAD DISSIPATED BY 1030 AM PST THIS
MORNING GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING 4-8 DEG F ABOVE YDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND 6-12
DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. INCREASED OFFSHORE
P-GRADS RESULTED IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A FEW HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS AS
WELL AS THE GRAPEVINE AREA HAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH EARLIER
TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 400 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY THIS EVENING AS P-GRADS RELAX.

12Z WRF INDICATING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT OVER
CENTRAL CA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMEPRATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FOG WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND ANY FOG WHICH
DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST ON SATRUDAY...BUT SPLIT APART AS IT RUNS INTO
THE STRONG RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND
AND TEMEPRATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
LOWER...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY. THE RIDGE WILL
IS PROGGED TO RE-AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR IN FOG/HAZE FROM 08Z TO 20Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON MONDAY FEBRUARY 8 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891
KFAT 02-09       71:2012     45:1923     56:1987     27:1891
KFAT 02-10       75:1961     44:1894     54:1916     29:1965

KBFL 02-08       82:2015     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
KBFL 02-09       77:2012     42:1919     58:1975     24:1929
KBFL 02-10       79:1961     47:1967     54:1973     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ095.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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