Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 230705
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS
MORNING...HIGH AND DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR A
HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NW AND W THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING A SUNNY DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. FLAT TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATER TODAY AND THIS MODIFICATION
PROCESS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. WE EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THOSE OF WED...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG ON LONGEST. UPPER 60S WILL BE MOST COMMON
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR COAST THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND
LUMBERTON AND POINTS NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE RESULT...NNW TO NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. THE DIRECTION
WILL VERY SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/RJD






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