Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 221113
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
613 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain well above normal this week. A week
trough may bring spotty showers to the region today and
Thursday. Near record highs are possible Friday. A cold front,
approaching from the west, will bring a slight chance of showers
Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will build into the area
Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...An upper low and its developing surface
reflection swing southeast out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
then across southern Florida and then over the Bahamas by the end of
the period. Meanwhile, a coastal trough will continue to develop.
Mid-levels will remain quite dry although satellite loops and model
soundings show an extensive cirrus deck will continue to cover the
eastern Carolinas. SE flow will also advect in low level moisture
which may enhance fog development overnight. Dry mid levels and lack
of any strong triggers makes for another dry day with pops remaining
silent.  Temperatures will continue to run unseasonably warm, with
highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...An upper low and its surface reflection as
mentioned in the Near Term discussion above will swing NE from the
Bahamas, passing well offshore the Cape Fear Region late Friday.A
coastal trough will move ashore on Thursday while a cold front
approaching from the NW approaches the Appalachian mountains.
Isolated showers are possible Thursday as the trough moves ashore,
otherwise the short term will remain dry. Weak forcing Thursday
means QPF values will remain on the minimal side for any showers
that manage to develop. There will be a warming trend with
temperatures remaining well above normal. Many locations away
from the beaches could see highs of around 80 on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Mid level low pressure sweeping across the upper
midwest will push a cold front across the area Saturday with minimal
moisture. The timing has stepped back a little from recent runs and
this should allow high temperatures to soar to near 80 degrees in
some spots. We continue to advertise slight chance pops with the
system. Beyond this the mid level pattern transitions to zonal then
a somewhat southwest flow develops early next week. This will allow
another dramatic warmup after cooling down to just touch climatology
briefly.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12Z...High pressure aligned down the coast from New England
will combine with a developing area of low pressure near FL to
produce E/SE winds and increasing column moisture today. The
gradient will remain light, so winds will be 10 kts or less, but
this deep moist flow will keep mixed clouds today and VFR cigs are
expected. Winds will ease after sunset to near calm, and if sky
conditions can clear enough some fog is possible late. Both MOS
products and forecast profiles suggest light fog at all terminals,
so have added MVFR to the end of the valid period. There is also a
risk for some showers today and tonight, especially across the SC
terminals, but continued dry air in the mid-levels, as well as the
likely isolated nature of any precip, has precluded any mention in
the TAFs attm.

Extended Outlook...Isolated showers through Thursday. Showers
possible Saturday with a cold front. Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure
over the waters combined with a developing low moving over the
Bahamas will bring east winds of around 10 kts with seas of 2 to 3
ft today. Seas will build slightly overnight, becoming a more solid 3
ft throughout by daybreak on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Longwave swell generated by a developing
low over the Bahamas will bring increasingly high combined sea
heights, with Small Craft Advisory criteria possibly being met
by Thursday night as the seas build. Winds will remain easterly
and relatively modest however, as the low will not strongly
intensify and should remain well offshore through the period. DO
not see winds exceeding 15 kts through this period and most
locations will be more in the 10 kt range. The exception could
be the very near shore waters on Friday, when a strong land/sea
temperature contrast could enhance the sea breeze effect during
the afternoon, with winds gusting up around 20 kts.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A southwest flow of 10-15 knots will be in place
to start the period and as a cold front moves across Saturday winds
will take on a more westerly component. Speeds also increase to 15-
20 knots. Wind direction veers even further to northwest by Sunday
morning. Speeds decrease later Sunday. Regarding seas, small craft
levels will be reached and continue probably through early Sunday
morning.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...REK/SHK



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