Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 180621
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
221 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states
will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas.
Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high
moves off the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Surface high pressure remains centered to
our northeast through the entire period, albeit with a secondary
center developing well off of New England coast. Even though
surface flow remains northeasterly the winds are veered somewhat in
the vertical allowing for an east-to-west rise today in PW values.
In the mid levels one upper impulse is departing offshore with
another one somewhat atypically close on its heels. The approaching
trough will weaken as it impinges upon the area tonight but with
little fanfare as the column is far too dry to support any sensible
weather. The exception may be an increase in clouds mainly along the
coast where there will be a bit more moisture present.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...A 500 mb ridge over the lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday will build over the Carolinas on
Friday. This should push the surface high from the southern
Appalachians into the northeastern U.S.  A pronounced
subsidence inversion descending to as low as 3000 feet AGL
should help keep skies clear.

It`s a pretty unremarkable weather pattern. 850 mb temps will
recover through the period from around +10C Thursday morning to
around +14C by Friday. While the subsidence inversion aloft
should guarantee we won`t mix all the way up to 850 mb, it still
appears we`ll see upper 70s for highs both days, with perhaps
an isolated 80-degree reading Friday. Morning lows should range
from the upper 40s-lower 50s Thursday night to the lower-mid
50s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...It will remain high and dry into Sunday
as high pressure remains in control of area weather. An
approaching cold front and return flow around the high will
bring increasing clouds Sunday and Sunday night with a small
chance of showers. Chances for showers will continue Monday and
Tuesday as the front moves into and through the area. Max
temperatures Friday through Monday will be in the upper 70s to
around 80 and in the mid 70s Tuesday. Minimums will moderate
from the low to mid 50s Friday morning to the low to mid 60s
Monday and Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence for VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Light northeast winds through the TAF period as high
pressure remains to our north. The deep layer column will be too dry
to support any clouds.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR cigs Thurs AM. Possible
showers on Monday. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...In a pattern more typical of later in the
cool season high pressure will be found north and northeast of the
region through the period. Six foot seas will still plague the outer
regions of the forecast area through this afternoon except for along
Horry County due to wave shadowing off of Cape Fear. A Small Craft
Advisory remains for the former, whereas SCEC continues for the
later. Either or both headline may need to be extended slightly into
tonight but have held off at doing so at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...High pressure will remain across the
Mid-Atlantic states Thursday through Friday. A weak wave of low
pressure will develop in the open Atlantic northeast of the
Bahamas on Thursday, quickly shooting northeast and away from
the United States. This feature will help keep the pressure
gradient tight enough on Thursday for 15-20 kt northeast winds
in the morning, but wind speeds should diminish Thursday
afternoon and night, and by Friday morning should be 10 kt or
less. Seas should likewise subside through the period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds will gradually become easterly by
Sunday morning then southeast by Sunday night. Seas 2 to 3 FT
Saturday then increase to 3 to 5 FT by Sunday evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Astronomical tides are increasing as we
approach a new moon on Thu. This coupled with strong NE winds,
may breach minor coastal flooding thresholds at Wrightsville
Beach and advisories may be needed along portions of the North
Carolina coast around the time of high tide for the next several
days. The same will be true of the lower Cape Fear River to
include downtown Wilmington.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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