Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 260551
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing
uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening. The chances increase a little this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1100 PM Monday...Expect quiet conditions to continue through
the overnight hours with nearly clear skies and warm and humid
conditions. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the low to
mid 70`s across the inland areas, with upper 70`s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper level ridging not only stays centered
just off the coast through the period but it strengthens. This will
bolster the heat being pumped into the area and both days will
feature a return of area-wide Heat Advisory. Have already gone ahead
and raised for Tuesday after collab with neighboring WFOs. Rainfall
chances will be minimal both days. Tuesday the piedmont trough
appears to have a better chance than the sea breeze. Slight POPS are
warranted area-wide on Wednesday as a weak disturbance rolls by but
it seems quite likely that the suppressing effects of the ridge
should win out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern will be slowly
transitioning from the massive ridge across the south to more of
a weak trough across the Mississippi valley early in the period.
The trough pushes east through the weekend but dampens. The
associated cold front remains well to the north or west of the
area. Precipitable waters will increase however thus leading to
increasing pops, mainly for the weekend.

Nothing on the synoptic scale to make a dent in temperature trends
as 850mb readings are a degree or two either side of 20 degrees C.
More coverage of showers and thunderstorms may provide temporary
relief during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Some isolated fog around sunrise, but kept out of
terminals for now. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period. A decent subsidence inversion will keep
convection at bay for the most part, however an isolated storm is
possible. Higher Res models showing convection along inland trough
west of area and a spotty one along the sea breeze front. South
southwest flow will continue, becoming gusty by midday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
through Saturday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 PM Monday...Southwest winds will persist overnight across
the waters with sustained winds around 10 to 15 kts. Seas of 2 to
3 ft are expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Conditions change slightly heading from the
near term into the short term. We will see a return of normal wind
and waves as piedmont troughiness tightens the gradient along the
western fringe of the Bermuda high. So rather than seeing such
light winds and seas as today we expect SW 10-15 to return with
the occasional gust to 20kt. This should allow 3 ft seas to return
to the forecast, mainly away from the coastline in the largely
coast- parallel flow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The marine community can expect south to
southwest winds through the period. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots
with the possibility of a diurnal increase with low level jetting.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ



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