Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 250721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...OWING TO THE
TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE FOG THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL  DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT.
THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. IN MANY CASES THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL BE NEAR 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMONLY
BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING
TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. A BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON. AT THE BEACHES...
READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY
CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO
PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH
CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH
DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER
WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY
REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO
THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW










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