Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 272309
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and showers will increase over the weekend as low pressure
from the Bahamas organizes and approaches the South Carolina
coast. This low will meander near the coast through the middle of
next week maintaining unsettled weather through at least early
Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain and strong rip currents are
possible at times throughout the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM Friday...An extensive cu field has developed this
afternoon well inland of the coast. The coastal counties remain
sunny behind an enhanced sea breeze circulation. More ambitious
convective development beyond this point is being hampered by very
dry air aloft. We can still expect a dry and warm afternoon with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The ridge axis of a broad area of high pressure over the western
Atlantic is now bisecting the eastern Carolinas. This feature will
slowly retreat to the north as a developing tropical or sub-tropical
low near the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in
intensity. Model guidance and ensembles are in very good accord with
this scenario, including both track and intensity. At this time a
hurricane hunter aircraft is in the air to determine the status and
development of this system. The shifting of the ridge axis northward
in combination with the movement of the low will allow present E to
SE flow to back to the NE overnight. A consensus of guidance has
temperatures bottoming out in the lower 60s inland with mid to upper
60s closer to the coast. Skies will become mainly clear overnight as
diurnal cu fades with the sunset, but clouds will move back in
overnight, starting with cirrus, as the low to our southeast
approaches. Isolated showers are possible along the coast by
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Friday...The western limb of a broad high pressure
system over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat north of
the eastern Carolinas as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low
over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in
intensity. As mentioned in the Near Term discussion above, model
guidance and ensembles continue to be in good accord with this
scenario. Model soundings move deep layer moisture in after daybreak
on Saturday morning. This will bring increasing chances for showers
or thunderstorms, especially along the coast, beginning on Saturday
morning, with chances increasing through the remainder of the period
as the low approaches the coast of SC. It is unlikely that winds
associated with this system will be a concern through the short term
as guidance continues to show that this feature will be weakly
organized and slow to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Lingering low pressure/trough along the
Carolina coast will keep some clouds and unsettled
weather...especially along the coast. Kept mostly cloudy skies
most places for most days, although models do seem a bit more
optimistic with cloud cover and potential for rain inland. Looks
like ridge will shift eastward as northern stream shortwave rides
by on Monday, but then ridge builds back over the east coast with
some minor weakness remaining. This could produce some increased
subsidence and dry air aloft to help limit shwrs/tstms heading
into the middle of next week, but gfs continues to show a fair
amount of shwr activity. For now, will show higher chc of shwrs
Mon into early Tues as low pressure lingers and then show a
diminishing trend as ridging begins to build up through the SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR conditions should prevail now through at least
09Z early Saturday morning as a deep dry air moves across the
eastern Carolinas. Starting around 09Z mid and high level moisture
will begin to increase in advance of a developing tropical storm
that will be southeast of charleston but will impact the kmyr and
kcre taf site the most at the end of the forecast period. Also
possible will be the development of some low stratus due to late
night boundary layer cooling. Any low clouds should burn off an
hour or two after sunrise as the first band of showers associated
with the offshore low approaches the coast beginning around 14Z
Saturday.

Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR conditions in scattered to
numerous showers and isolated t-storms Saturday night afternoon
and overnight, mainly shifting inland for Sunday. Occasional MVFR
with scattered showers Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Friday...A broad area of high pressure over the
western Atlantic will slowly retreat to the north as a developing
tropical or sub-tropical low near the Bahamas drifts slowly to the
NW with little change in intensity. The shifting of the high
northward in combination with the movement of the low will allow
present easterly winds of around 10 kts to back to the NE
overnight with little change in strength. Seas of 2 to 3 ft this
afternoon will hover right around 3 ft by daybreak on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Thursday...The western limb of a broad high pressure
system over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat north of
the waters as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the
Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW to the coast of SC with little
change in intensity. This will bring increasing chances for
showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing winds
and seas. At this point it is possible that winds associated with
this system may be strong enough to warrant an advisory for seas
reaching 6 ft at some point during the short term, but warnings
are less likely as guidance still shows a weakly organized and
slowly developing system.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Lingering low pressure/trough along the
Carolina coast may produce some variability in winds but overall
expect an onshore SE-E wind to continue but generally on the
weaker side...about 5 to 10 kts. Swell should be just around or
under 8 seconds with seas between 3 and 5 ft through Mon into
Tues. Expect winds to remain light with seas diminishing as the
effects of tropical low wane through mid week....down to 3 ft or
less by Tues night into Wed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056.
NC...None.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH/TRA
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW


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