Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 071420
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A DAILY RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES
TO MAKE SO I`LL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. JUDGING BY SATELLITE
IMAGERY IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH FAIRLY MINIMAL CONVECTION AS
CUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR SLOW TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER ALSO SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY THOUGH STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE HIGH PWAT VALUES
STILL MEAN THEY COULD PUT DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS.
FAIRLY TYPICAL THOUGH FOR JULY.

AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS WERE
AROUND...BUT OTHERWISE IT WAS MAINLY SUNNY.

THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
HIGH TODAY...NEAR OR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES. MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. FORCING WILL HOWEVER
BE WEAK WITH TWO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEABREEZE. GIVEN THE
LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT...AND WITH THE WARMER LAYER AROUND 12 KFT...
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
WIDELY SCATTERED AT MOST.

THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE ONLY MODEST INLAND PENETRATION...MORESO OVER
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT
WILL BE SW. THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT ENVIRONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. INLAND...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVE AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED BALMY ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BRIEFLY IMPINGE
ONTO PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AWAY FROM ANY BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE WARMEST INLAND SPOTS MAY REACH THE MID 90S. MORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH READINGS AT MANY OF OUR
BEACHES STYMIED ONCE THEY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE LAST MANY NIGHTS...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE SURFACE. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CU AND LOCALIZED SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY HELP TO
VEER WINDS AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS IT PUSHES TROUGH
EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WILL LEAVE LOWER END POPS IN
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND
RISING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL
REACH BETWEEN 90 AND 95 MOST PLACES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH JUST ABOVE
100 EACH AFTN BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP RIDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL EXPECT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BUT
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED NW FLOW MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO RIDE OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT AN UPTICK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH AND THE NW STEERING
FLOW TO DRIVE ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALONG WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
WESTWARD AND A BROADER LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
KEEP A DEEPER NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH LEAVING A SFC TROUGH UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BY MON. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WARM TEMPS OVER THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW HEAT INDICES WILL
BREAK 100 BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST
PLACES UP THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 90S
MOST DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH A THERMAL/PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND A SEA BREEZE RESULTANT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AROUND
NOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST NEAT THE COAST. LOOK
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FIRE AROUND 16Z NEAR THE COAST...A FEW
HOURS LATER INLAND ON THE THERMAL TROUGH. COVERAGE WARRANTS A VCTS
MENTION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...JUST 3 FT ALL
THE WAY OUT TO 41013 AND ALTHOUGH WIND WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KTS
TODAY WITH MIXING DID TWEAK SEAS DOWNWARD A TAD. MOST OF THIS
TRIMMING LIKELY OUTSIDE OF OF THE 20 NM CUTOFF SO LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE ACTUAL CWF TEXT PRODUCT. PREV
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE
BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
ONLY MODEST GAINS INLAND WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW SSW TO SW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THEN ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS SOME
NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. HIGHEST WINDS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE 3 TO 4 FT. AN 8 TO 10 SECOND SE GROUND SWELL
WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AS BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN
DOMINANT FEATURES DRIVING THE WINDS. EXPECT SPIKE IN WINDS EACH
AFTN DUE TO SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT BUT WILL BE CHOPPIER EACH
AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL MIX
WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD SW WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AS RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES...A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL
PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
LIGHTEN AND COUNTERACT THE SW FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...PRODUCING
WEAKER MORE WESTERLY BUT MORE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THIS SHOULD LOWER SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SECONDS SE
SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL


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